The Kobeissi Letter(@KobeissiLetter):US equity and bond market volatility are moving in opposite directions: The Volatility Index, $VIX, to MOVE Index ratio is down to 0.15, its lowest since December 2014. This ratio has fallen -31.5% over the last 2 weeks as the Treasury market volatility intensified. Over this period, the MOVE Index has surged +25.9 points, or +32.1%, to 106.6, its highest since March 31st. At the same time, $VIX has declined -1.7 points, or -9.5%, to 16.0, well below its 2026 average of 18.3. To put this into perspective, during the March to April 2025 correction and the March 2026 pullback, this ratio jumped to 0.37 and 0.36, respectively, as equity volatility followed the surge in bond volatility. Is stock market volatility set to follow again this time?

2026.09.30 22:11

US equity and bond market volatility are moving in opposite directions: The Volatility Index, $VIX, to MOVE Index ratio is down to 0.15, its lowest since December 2014. This ratio has fallen -31.5% over the last 2 weeks as the Treasury market volatility intensified. Over this period, the MOVE Index has surged +25.9 points, or +32.1%, to 106.6, its highest since March 31st. At the same time, $VIX has declined -1.7 points, or -9.5%, to 16.0, well below its 2026 average of 18.3. To put this into perspective, during the March to April 2025 correction and the March 2026 pullback, this ratio jumped to 0.37 and 0.36, respectively, as equity volatility followed the surge in bond volatility. Is stock market volatility set to follow again this time?