Leif Soreide(@LeifSoreide):Gridlock is usually good for stocks. I’m just not sure the midterm playbook applies cleanly this time. Historically, a Republican President with a Democratic Congress has been one of the weaker setups, positive but below average. And those stats were built in calmer policy environments. Policy keeps getting more extreme. The market has to price conditions the old seasonal data never saw. A pattern is only as reliable as the conditions that made it.

Leif Soreide

@LeifSoreide

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Leif Soreide@LeifSoreide

2026.11.04 19:23

Gridlock is usually good for stocks. I’m just not sure the midterm playbook applies cleanly this time. Historically, a Republican President with a Democratic Congress has been one of the weaker setups, positive but below average. And those stats were built in calmer policy environments. Policy keeps getting more extreme. The market has to price conditions the old seasonal data never saw. A pattern is only as reliable as the conditions that made it.