Leopold Aschenbrenner is undoubtedly a very high IQ guy, but he's also an overly ideologically ignorant retard. He can synthesize the technical insider info he knows eloquently and very academically, and with American-style bravado. But he's completely unaware of his blindspots. His understanding of China literally boils down to: "They aren't creative, only Americans are creative. Chinese can only copy" You can be an elite top A+ student 150IQ galaxy brain, but if one central premise of your thesis is wrong, then the entire thesis will be wrong- and your forecast will be about /r WallStreetBets quality, just with bigger words and more or less luck. Btw, the entire problem with America right now is high-powered but low-dimensional worldviews.