Q1'26
@Bullish earnings 🧵
The cleanest way to think about this quarter:
The trading business materially outperformed a collapsing market.
Industry top-10 spot CEX vol: -39% QoQ
Bullish volumes:
Spot: -14%
Options: +29% to $11.6B
14% BTC OI market share
Transaction revenue flat despite the volume drop: spreads widened, options mix grew. Real share gain.
Profitability stepped back because management chose to lean in.
Opex +20% QoQ
Margin: 48% → 38%
Funding the tokenization platform, TRP warrant program, and
@consensus2026 events.
The Q4 print was the cyclical peak — this is what investing through a downcycle looks like.
The Equiniti deal is the real story.
$4.2B, target close Jan 2027.
Buys:
3K issuer relationships
20M KYC'd shareholders
A regulated transfer agent
The missing piece of the tokenization stack.
Combined 2026E:
~$1.3B revenue
~$500M EBITDA less capex
~$280M adj. net income