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Lorenzo Valente
@LorenzoARK
Crypto at @ARKinvest I Director of Research I Disclosure:
288 Following    9.2K Followers
The big boys are entering the arena. In July, @HyperliquidX (via had ~80% of RWA perp volume. This week: 26%. The market doubled in that time frame. Weekly RWA perp volume went from ~$20B to ~$40–60B, but CEXes took nearly all of the new flow. Binance went from 3% share to 30% in two weeks. OKX went from zero to 14% this week alone. Gate and Bitget are scaling too. CEXs now hold 64% of the market. They know what’s at stake: if they lose RWA perps to on-chain venues, they lose their claim to being the default trading venue, period.
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Stablecoins just crossed 300M holder addresses globally for the first time. The Ethereum ecosystem is now 37% of all stablecoin holders, up from 29% two years ago, and L2s account for ~3 of every 4 of them. The strategy of scaling adoption through L2s is working. I expect tokenized stocks to follow the same path. If there is one chart to show EVM dominance, it’s this one: EVM-compatible chains hold ~94% of all stablecoin addresses. It took 8 years to get to 300M. I think we reach 1B wallets within 18 months, well ahead of trend.
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On Tokenized Assets And On-Chain Adoption: People don't understand that CEXes had a tremendous advantage over DEXes for crypto-tokens: BTC is not natively supported by smart contracts. BTC created a structural hurdle for DEXes and L1s. Wrapped versions introduce a ton of trust, bridge or custody risks. That helped CEXes a TON to attract liquidity moats. You essentially had 70% of crypto-marketcap that couldn't be supported on-chain. This is no longer the case with equities, the playing field is much more flat here and I think it's already showing.
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The OpenAI / Trail of Bits acquisition rumors seem pretty bearish for crypto to me. Finger-in-the-air estimate, ToB is probably doing close to a $100M a year in revenue. That’s nothing for OpenAI. They’re likely after the cybersecurity talent and internal tooling. Feels like 95% an acquihire to me. My guess is they’ll shift almost entirely toward building cybersecurity tools powered by OpenAI’s models. I don’t think crypto is the focus here at all.
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🚨 JUST IN: OpenAI is in early talks to acquire security firm Trail of Bits as it moves to build out its cybersecurity business, per The Information.
Some tech companies have really come full circle trying to solve the problems they helped create. “Online dating needs to be reinvented with AI. Human connection matters more than ever.” For the love of God, spend less time chatting with your bot or scrolling after work. Go to a bar. Talk to strangers. See your friends. Join a sports club. Do things you enjoy with people who share your interests. Put time into your actual relationships. There’s no shortcut.
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Whitney is one of the most talented founders I've ever met. Online dating is a brutal business. Whitney built Bumble from nothing, took it public, and came back to run it when it was struggling. That took real grit. It was way harder than it looked from the outside. I'm bullish on Bumble. @GuptaRK22 and John Hegeman are great operators, and the category needs to be reinvented with AI. Human connection matters more than ever, and I can't wait to see what they build together. Congrats @WhitWolfeHerd.
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We’re at a point in crypto where people still underestimate how big some of these businesses can become. I think there’s more money to be made by getting the TAM right than by finding the second or third competitor in a given vertical. Too many people dismiss apps/protocols because they can’t imagine them compounding into multibillion-dollar businesses.
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For the first time in over a year, @variational_io has overtaken @tradexyz in RWA perp volume. RWA perps are a major growth opportunity for Hyperliquid and prob 90% of future growth going foward. HIP-3 delegates those markets to others, but it also means relying on them to stay competitive. I think competition will only increase going forward
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Look across the US financial market stack ALONE: introducing brokers, execution venues, clearing houses, custodians, market makers, wholesalers, and prime brokers. These roles support some of the most valuable businesses: 50B+ 100B+ mkcap businesses Tokenization will create massive winners. Some will be disrupted, some will be able to leverage it.
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"Where do you make money in tokenization?" The core monopoly we're disrupting in crypto is ownership over the rails. Complete control over the rails gives banks a HUGE leg up over everything built on top of the rails. By moving finance onto rails that are owned by no one, suddenly it's possible to build massive global businesses subject to different rules than fin services. Want an example? Look no further than @Uniswap , which directly benefits from Robinhood's push into tokenized finance. How about @Morpho and @aave ? What do you think is going to happen exactly when $3T of stablecoins come onchain? The answer for who benefits (on a 2-3 year time horizon) of tokenization, are the tokens themselves.
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Stop getting bullied into buybacks, you can do other stuff with your revenue. Show the path to 10xing the company with that money
ARK's Lorenzo Valente contrasts AI's funding frenzy with crypto teams bullied into buying back tokens instead of investing in growth "You have the AI venture market where literally investors are calling the startups and they're preempting rounds like a week after they raise to give them more money." "In crypto, we have 1 or 2-year-old startups that are saying, hey, the best way we can invest capital is just gonna be to buy back and burn our token." "Honestly, from the investment perspective, it's such a turn-off because basically you're telling me, we think we're the best. We think there's nowhere to grow. The best use of capital is just to buy back the token." "Obviously, we know that's not the real answer for a lot of these companies. But they're basically getting bullied into buybacks."
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Less governance more founder led decisions to act quickly
ARK Invest's Lorenzo Valente calls for founder-led signature upgrades over governance votes, as self-custody slowly dies "I'm not a cryptographer, and obviously, a lot has been said about ECDSA, which is kind of the elliptic curve cryptography that Bitcoin and Ethereum use." "Self custody is just a harder and harder sell in terms of the core crypto ethos. We've been having this thesis internally that self custody is slowly dying and I think this is just accelerating." "It's one of the core reasons DeFi is actually not growing, because we don't have anyone that's willing to self custody. We're waiting for the Robinhoods, the Coinbase, and other applications to actually onboard users." "The other thing that is scary is the solution to that, which is other sets of signatures. They're not well known. They're not well tested. People have very divergent opinions about it." "A lot of the L1s that we build, Ethereum and others, now they have an amount of governance. The miners. There's onchain votes. There's the users, the stakers." "This seems like a topic where you want founder mode. You want someone to say, we're gonna make this transition. We're gonna use these signatures, and we're gonna do this before mid next year." "My concern is a lot of these will get lost in governance and votes and stuff like that. And so that's also the part that is a bit scary."
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ARK Invest's Lorenzo Valente calls for founder-led signature upgrades over governance votes, as self-custody slowly dies "I'm not a cryptographer, and obviously, a lot has been said about ECDSA, which is kind of the elliptic curve cryptography that Bitcoin and Ethereum use." "Self custody is just a harder and harder sell in terms of the core crypto ethos. We've been having this thesis internally that self custody is slowly dying and I think this is just accelerating." "It's one of the core reasons DeFi is actually not growing, because we don't have anyone that's willing to self custody. We're waiting for the Robinhoods, the Coinbase, and other applications to actually onboard users." "The other thing that is scary is the solution to that, which is other sets of signatures. They're not well known. They're not well tested. People have very divergent opinions about it." "A lot of the L1s that we build, Ethereum and others, now they have an amount of governance. The miners. There's onchain votes. There's the users, the stakers." "This seems like a topic where you want founder mode. You want someone to say, we're gonna make this transition. We're gonna use these signatures, and we're gonna do this before mid next year." "My concern is a lot of these will get lost in governance and votes and stuff like that. And so that's also the part that is a bit scary."
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It was super fun to go on the pod and chat all things crypto with @laurashin
ARK Invest's Lorenzo Valente says $ETH accruing billions is hard to imagine as L2s take the activity and fees "It's pretty clear that where we are today the value accrual is pretty broken. Imagining a world where Ethereum accrues several billions of dollars is just very, very hard to imagine, if not clearly impossible." "The base layer is used to store assets. Not much activity is happening at the base layer, so it's not producing a lot of fees." "And activity has been outsourced to these L2s. Mainly two L2s, it's Base and Robinhood. It's basically 5 to 7 L2s that have 99% of the activity. And those fees are not accruing to Ethereum." "Robinhood was making several millions of dollars a day and basically, Ethereum base layer was accruing $100." "Ethereum has this franchise model where, basically, it's scaling through franchises, really Base and Robinhood. You can think of it as a McDonald's franchise." "Growth is not happening anymore at the Ethereum layer 1."
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There’s this weird dynamic in AI venture where investors feel they have downside protection because everyone's buying the AI start ups. For context, you now have 15 companies worth over $1T, and 12 of them will spend whatever it takes to keep up with the frontier. Combined, they’re worth over $33T. So using just 1–3% of their market caps in stock gives them roughly $335B to $1T in potential buying power JUST to acquire frontier AI startups. So yes, I think we’re going to see many more of these acquisitions.
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Right when everyone is worried about ECDSA and cryptography, a pretty wild story is unfolding around the Ledger losses. The full story is still unconfirmed, but quite scary. @Ledger_Support is investigating reported losses involving customers of CryptoBilis, an authorized reseller in Southeast Asia, and has asked it to pause sales and shipments. @MagicalTux says that one possible theory here is physical spy implants hidden inside Ledger wallets that capture recovery words during setup and transmit them through an LTE chip. He suspects a connection to the CryptoBilis losses, but hasn’t established it. Then @FatManTerra adds another twist: he alleges a Chinese company bought CryptoBilis and put the former owner under a confidentiality agreement preventing disclosure of the sale. His attached screenshot shows @PrabuArravind saying: “We have no access to CryptoBilis accounts, backend, or operations.” This is a pretty wild story if confirmed, and highlights two things: Never buy from a reseller, even if official. Self custody will die very quickly if nothing is done
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Holy shit... A random Chinese company purchased CryptoBilis (the authorised Ledger reseller that issued the spy-implanted Ledgers) from its Malaysian ex-owner, then put him under a confidentiality agreement preventing him from disclosing the sale publicly. What a wild attack.
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Lol “You have a duty to invest responsibly.” Nooooooo, you have a duty not to invest any of your customers’ money.
All in. Every time. Julia Garner and Anthony Boyle star as Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried in this limited series about the love scorned prodigies behind the FTX scandal. The Altruists premieres November 19.
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Surprised this hasn’t gotten more attention: Ethereum L1 is barely showing up in the tokenized equities boom. Tokenized equities already account for 12% of spot DEX vol on-chain, yet Ethereum L1 has close to 0 market share. Robinhood, Arbitrum and Base are doing the gruntwork obviously. But where does that leave the L1? Tokenization is going to reshape the onchain economy, and tokenized equities are going to be the fastest-growing segment over the next 2 years. Ethereum needs a clear vision for what belongs on L1, what moves to L2s, and how the two fit together, from security and governance to liquidity and value accrual. More on this in my article next week.
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Stablecoins have officially made it to the Bloomberg Terminal. Supply and market data are now available directly there
Tokenized equities just crossed 1% of stablecoin supply. I expect this ratio to grow massively from here. Even if stablecoin supply compounds at 40%+ annually, I think tokenized equities could surpass stablecoins in onchain supply within the next three years. A lot of the stack will benefit from tokenization, and there will be many winners. But one thing seems increasingly clear: stablecoins will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of tokenized assets.
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.@Uniswap settled 140 million trades in August, more than Cboe BZX and NYSE American combined. NYSE American has been around since 1908. Uniswap launched in 2018. Five years ago it was ~2 million trades a month. Next rung up: NYSE Arca, at 232 million.
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I think the best way to describe where we are in the cycle is that it’s become somewhat weird to ask someone to connect via Telegram at conferences.