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Stuart Taylor
@LuckyStuey
Space Industry Consultant - Investor - Poker Enthusiast
132 Following    915 Followers
As the jury deliberates whether latest $ASTS attempts to unfold BB11 have worked or not, here is what it means for their satellite manufacturing going forward: 1) Best Case scenario - Root Cause and Corrective Action (RCCA) concludes that it was a one-off random anomaly and existing design can be cleared for flight with final inspections/tests. BB14-BB16 can be completed ready-to-ship within 2 weeks. 2) Median Case Scenario - RCCA concludes there was a minor flaw in the design and/or workmanship that may be present on other BBs. Small corrective actions are required on all in-production satellites. BB14-BB16 can be reworked ready-to-ship within 2-6 weeks. 3) Worst Case Scenario - RCCA concludes there was a major flaw in the design and/or workmanship that is present on other BBs. Significant corrective actions are required on all in-production satellites. BB14-BB16 delays >6 weeks. Note that the above applies whether or not BB11 recovery activities are successful, given that it clearly suffered a deployment anomaly. FYI, I provide expert consulting on satellite programs as my core profession. I've consulted on the design, development, manufacturing, testing, launch, and in-orbit performance for hundreds of satellites, including some major anomaly investigations. I don't have much data for BB11, since ASTS management has been very uncommunicative, but decades of experience tell me something is wrong and needs fixing, and the above are my best inferences, rather than firm facts and data.
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