From GS via BBG: - Hedge funds have loaded up on shorts, pushing bearish bets near a 5-year high and raising the risk of a sharp squeeze. - Short/Buy ratio hit ~5x across global equities, and short leverage is now at 99th percentile over the past 5 years. What's the setup?

The most anticipated Fed day of all time (*until the next one). In the interest of providing something of value, and offering a somewhat different perspective… The setup looks quite interesting here. Maybe even historic…

This morning @MacroCharts is spot on calling out the worst people on Twitter for openly mocking policymakers. The jokes aren’t even funny. Usually worth watching these people for the fade.

NEW POST 2026 has produced some of the toughest, most extreme market conditions anyone has ever seen. Everything is about to change: ✅ A Special Update with NEW Major Signals and Historical Studies. ✅ One of THE most important Tactical setups of the year. ✅ NEW charts on HIGH-PRIORITY watch.

For students of market history... 1. Until late May/early June, quite a few veterans I know had never heard of "Situational Awareness". Then all at once, it seemed everyone was following the fund's positions. Soon after, the bottleneck trade peaked. 2. Every cycle, someone racked up big numbers on the way up, only to give everything back (and more). Return vs. Risk, simple as that. Manage risk, always. 3. Momentum is a specialist's game, and should never be dressed up as anything else. When Momentum gets crowded and turns down, valuation/fundamental support goes out the window. The results are always the same (July 2026 was a perfect example). 4. It doesn't mean the cycle is "over". But it does mean that massive leverage was deployed at the peak. A small group of smart people spotted the imbalance, and sidestepped the collapse. Now, after a total wipeout, good stocks are moving back into strong hands. Little by little. 5. If you want to learn more about prior cycles, search @McClellanOsc "burning LOH" studies on his website. History is rich with examples just like this. 6. Check out what Jack and I were saying on May 19 (below)... one of many signs the rug was about to get pulled. The race is on... Plenty of time left this year, and a LOT of positioning is offsides across many key markets. And I think history still has quite a few tricks up its sleeve (for those who want to study it). Looking forward to what the rest of 2026 brings... Onwards and upwards.

Another overnight plunge and trading halt: -KOSPI is down 36% from its peak made just a month ago. -It has erased all gains since February, and given back 2/3 of YTD returns. -5 months of gains wiped in 5 weeks. At today's low, SK Hynix was down 58% from its June high: -The 2x ETF (7709) is down 80%, and still has $6 billion in AUM. -The 3x ETF is down 96%. *Korea will increase levered ETF deposit requirements on July 31.

One of the most important charts I'm watching: *Plus what it means for asset allocation today, and opportunities/risks. These are massive themes that could dominate the rest of 2026...