MacroScope
@MacroScope17
Topics: institutional trading, asset management and monetary policy. Tweets are opinions only and are not intended as advice.
362 Following 90.6K Followers
Below was posted three years ago at BTC 25k:
"One of the keys back then was to watch the longer term charts (weekly and especially monthly) for when price levels that were previously lost were quietly regained. This led to huge profits for traders who were still in the game and paying attention, because it indicated the continuation of a long-term secular trend."
This continues to apply. If you believe BTC is repeating the long-term fundamental and technical cycle of the tech sector that started in the mid-1990s (and longtime readers know I believe this) then you want to see that same type of price pattern: levels that were previously lost getting quietly regained (amid terrible sentiment), best viewed on monthly charts.
And after the past couple weeks, that’s exactly what we’re now seeing with BTC -- and have been seeing since this post three years ago.
There are a thousand ways to look at technicals and charts. I like to keep it simple, especially if you're pairing technicals with an underlying story that's a long-term new paradigm.
By the way, over the past couple years, I've probably gotten more "thanks"-type private messages about this post than any other I've made over the past decade. You can see the number of views on it. Glad the historical perspective (and gray hair) helped some readers.
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An Important effect of BTC’s recent surge is the reaffirming of it in institutional managers’ minds as debasement protection. This has always been a core investment thesis for BTC, but that perception had lapsed recently.
Perceptions like this are important on Wall Street, because once established during important market events, they can last for many years and even entire careers. As a sell-side market maker in the 1990s, I still vividly remember how the assets on our desk performed during various episodes including the Asian financial crisis -- and for years after, I would instinctively look at those assets during similar market environments.
If the debasement trade continues to become a focus for institutional managers, I think BTC’s recent surge has laid the groundwork for huge outperformance by it as a go-to asset for protection.
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A month ago at gold $4000 (closed Friday at $4600) and BTC 64k. When sentiment meets news.
Traders should be watching gold here. When an asset is in a long-term uptrend, and sentiment gets bombed-out on a big pullback but price quietly stops going down, that’s the time to start watching (similar to BTC right now).
Futures positioning in gold isn’t giving a strong indication here, but that’s been true for the past couple years because sovereign buying has made futures a less reliable indicator than in the past.
Everyone can see the bid under $4000, which is pretty much where you’d expect longer-term buyers (ie, sovereigns) to come alive. If I was looking to trade it, I’d probably start thinking about a small feeler position around here (and on a move under the June/July lows, I’d dispassionately step aside and wait for a reclaim of 4k). On a move to 4100-4200, I’d be thinking about adding to that long.
Important: When an asset is in a sharp correction after a blowoff top, the burden of proof is always on the asset to show strength. Always.
Not advice, just sharing my thinking.
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Adding to my post below from yesterday. See these new comments from Ray Dalio, which he posted a few hours ago:
"I expect non-government-produced monies like gold and Bitcoin to do relatively well."
"I suggest...overweighting gold and a bit of Bitcoin."
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Not a stretch to say that in the past couple days, BTC has been on the screens of more institutional managers than it has in a long time. That's because it's starting (emphasis on that word) to trade exactly the way you'd expect it to based on the market's increasing focus on debt.
This scenario has always been a core thesis for BTC. Whenever news starts to validate a long-held investment thesis for an asset, and price starts to reflect this, traders should be paying attention.
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Not a stretch to say that in the past couple days, BTC has been on the screens of more institutional managers than it has in a long time. That's because it's starting (emphasis on that word) to trade exactly the way you'd expect it to based on the market's increasing focus on debt.
This scenario has always been a core thesis for BTC. Whenever news starts to validate a long-held investment thesis for an asset, and price starts to reflect this, traders should be paying attention.
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From today. We haven't heard anything about this in a long time. But it should go without saying that traders should start watching this very closely.
🚨BREAKING: Trump on plans to buy "sizable" amounts of Bitcoin:
Q: Does the administration have any plans to accumulate sizable amounts of Bitcoin?
TRUMP: "It's been talked about. It's been very, very good for the dollar. If you came in with recommendations, I would certainly listen."
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$4460 after today's Treasury announcement
One month ago at gold $4000. Closed Friday at $4375. Should continue to be watched for its broader implications.
One month ago at gold $4000. Closed Friday at $4375. Should continue to be watched for its broader implications.
Traders should be watching gold here. When an asset is in a long-term uptrend, and sentiment gets bombed-out on a big pullback but price quietly stops going down, that’s the time to start watching (similar to BTC right now).
Futures positioning in gold isn’t giving a strong indication here, but that’s been true for the past couple years because sovereign buying has made futures a less reliable indicator than in the past.
Everyone can see the bid under $4000, which is pretty much where you’d expect longer-term buyers (ie, sovereigns) to come alive. If I was looking to trade it, I’d probably start thinking about a small feeler position around here (and on a move under the June/July lows, I’d dispassionately step aside and wait for a reclaim of 4k). On a move to 4100-4200, I’d be thinking about adding to that long.
Important: When an asset is in a sharp correction after a blowoff top, the burden of proof is always on the asset to show strength. Always.
Not advice, just sharing my thinking.
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Adding to the post below from yesterday.
It’s important to understand Paul Tudor Jones’ history with BTC. He was a big buyer of IBIT in previous years, reporting 8 million shares (then valued at $427 million) at the end of 2024. He became a seller during 2025, eventually owning just 576,523 shares at the end of the year.
His timing in BTC has been great.
Then, in early 2026, he stopped selling. Yesterday’s filing showed his first notable buying of IBIT since his prescient accumulation in 2024.
Yes, that buying was small relative to his total assets (and he also has IBIT puts/calls). But it’s the transition from seller, to holder, to buyer that's potentially important -- especially for a macro-based investor like PTJ.
The key will be to watch what he does in the next few quarters. Was this the start of a new sustained accumulation? We’ll see. Watch his filings and, importantly, any public comments about inflation, gold or BTC.
Required viewing on Paul Tudor Jones and BTC from earlier this year...keep this in mind as you watch his buy/sell activity:
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In a filing this afternoon, Tudor Investment (Paul Tudor Jones) reported owning 688,529 shares of IBIT as of June 30, valued at $22.9 million.
That's an increase from 579,083 shares reported for the previous quarter.
Remember: No one knows inflation cycles and their historical patterns better than PTJ.
Filing:
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In a filing today, Harvard University reported owning 3,044,612 shares of IBIT as of June 30, valued at $101 million. That's unchanged from the previous quarter.
Harvard also continues to have a large position in gold. In today's filing, it reported IAU valued at $149 million, and GLD valued at $22 million as of June 30.
In the filing, Harvard also disclosed a SpaceX position valued at $2.2 billion.
Filing:
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In a filing this afternoon, Tudor Investment (Paul Tudor Jones) reported owning 688,529 shares of IBIT as of June 30, valued at $22.9 million.
That's an increase from 579,083 shares reported for the previous quarter.
Remember: No one knows inflation cycles and their historical patterns better than PTJ.
Filing:
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You can almost hear macro guys like PTJ bidding BTC in the past few days after the inflation data.
In a filing today, Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala reported owning 14,721,917 shares of IBIT as of June 30, valued at $490 million. That's unchanged from the previous quarter.
The IBIT position is the second-largest holding in Mubadala's entire 13F filing (link below).
In a filing yesterday, Abu Dhabi Investment Council (another sovereign wealth fund) reported owning 8,218,712 shares of IBIT, valued at $273.6 million. That's also unchanged from the previous quarter.
The IBIT position is by far the largest holding in ADIC's entire 13F filing (link below).
Mubadala:
Abu Dhabi Investment Council:
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$4360 after today's jobs report.
Posted a few weeks ago (pre-Fed) at gold 4000. Now 4260. Still operative.
Posted a few weeks ago (pre-Fed) at gold 4000. Now 4260. Still operative.
Traders should be watching gold here. When an asset is in a long-term uptrend, and sentiment gets bombed-out on a big pullback but price quietly stops going down, that’s the time to start watching (similar to BTC right now).
Futures positioning in gold isn’t giving a strong indication here, but that’s been true for the past couple years because sovereign buying has made futures a less reliable indicator than in the past.
Everyone can see the bid under $4000, which is pretty much where you’d expect longer-term buyers (ie, sovereigns) to come alive. If I was looking to trade it, I’d probably start thinking about a small feeler position around here (and on a move under the June/July lows, I’d dispassionately step aside and wait for a reclaim of 4k). On a move to 4100-4200, I’d be thinking about adding to that long.
Important: When an asset is in a sharp correction after a blowoff top, the burden of proof is always on the asset to show strength. Always.
Not advice, just sharing my thinking.
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In an earnings filing today, SpaceX reported on its BTC holdings. No change during the quarter:
"As of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, the Company also held 18,712 units of Bitcoin with a cost basis of $661 million and fair value of $1,098 million and $1,637 million, respectively. The fair value of these digital assets is determined using Level I in the fair value hierarchy."
Earnings call happening now.
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If you know the sovereign bond markets, then you also know how important this is. Remarkable achievement.
In a quarterly filing late last week, Coinbase provided an update on changes to its corporate treasury during the first half of the year. More BTC, slightly less ETH:
Posted one month ago. Only wrong part was the last sentence.
Important. Remember that new Fed chairs always establish their inflation-fighting bona fides immediately upon taking office. Always. It's what they start to say afterwards that should be watched (it's sort of like a stock, where the initial reaction after earnings can often be faded). This type of softening should be watched closely in coming weeks and months. You can see gold's immediate reaction this morning. Most dovish raise ever coming next?
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I posted this four months ago:
"The same goes for BlackRock, where IBIT is the company's most profitable ETF. And that's even before you get to MSTR, Coinbase and other companies with formidable technical resources to match their vested interest."
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We’re proud to announce the launch of the Bitcoin Security Consortium, in partnership with BlackRock, Fidelity, Block, and more.
Together we’ll support the long-term security of the Bitcoin network.
Quantum computing is coming. Crypto needs to be ready.
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"The prices of sugar, meat and potatoes all doubled...Of course prosperity existed for some, and was to be seen on the surface. Those eating well in restaurants were those who could afford to eat well in restaurants."
-When Money Dies by Adam Fergusson
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Nobody talks about how we're all paying $15 for sandwiches now and just pretending that's normal. Five years ago that same sandwich was $8. The price doubled and the only explanation we got was "supply chain issues" which apparently means "forever."
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