MacroScope
@MacroScope17
Topics: institutional trading, asset management and monetary policy. Tweets are opinions only and are not intended as advice.
354 Following 90.7K Followers
If you know the sovereign bond markets, then you also know how important this is. Remarkable achievement.
I posted this four months ago:
"The same goes for BlackRock, where IBIT is the company's most profitable ETF. And that's even before you get to MSTR, Coinbase and other companies with formidable technical resources to match their vested interest."
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We’re proud to announce the launch of the Bitcoin Security Consortium, in partnership with BlackRock, Fidelity, Block, and more.
Together we’ll support the long-term security of the Bitcoin network.
Quantum computing is coming. Crypto needs to be ready.
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"The prices of sugar, meat and potatoes all doubled...Of course prosperity existed for some, and was to be seen on the surface. Those eating well in restaurants were those who could afford to eat well in restaurants."
-When Money Dies by Adam Fergusson
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Nobody talks about how we're all paying $15 for sandwiches now and just pretending that's normal. Five years ago that same sandwich was $8. The price doubled and the only explanation we got was "supply chain issues" which apparently means "forever."
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Traders should be watching gold here. When an asset is in a long-term uptrend, and sentiment gets bombed-out on a big pullback but price quietly stops going down, that’s the time to start watching (similar to BTC right now).
Futures positioning in gold isn’t giving a strong indication here, but that’s been true for the past couple years because sovereign buying has made futures a less reliable indicator than in the past.
Everyone can see the bid under $4000, which is pretty much where you’d expect longer-term buyers (ie, sovereigns) to come alive. If I was looking to trade it, I’d probably start thinking about a small feeler position around here (and on a move under the June/July lows, I’d dispassionately step aside and wait for a reclaim of 4k). On a move to 4100-4200, I’d be thinking about adding to that long.
Important: When an asset is in a sharp correction after a blowoff top, the burden of proof is always on the asset to show strength. Always.
Not advice, just sharing my thinking.
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You can almost hear macro guys like PTJ bidding BTC in the past few days after the inflation data.
Whenever I post about my trips to El Salvador, I get lots of messages from readers who want to visit, invest, start a business, or move there. But they don’t know where to start.
Recommendation: Go to a conference.
These events in El Salvador are not only interesting for the presentations and discussions. They are also valuable opportunities to make personal connections and exchange ideas. It’s a great atmosphere that extends beyond the event; the restaurants and hotels are packed, so it’s easy to meet people and start a conversation.
This is happening in November:
The event will take place in San Salvador’s historic center, which is an important and inspiring setting. Afterwards, have dinner at a rooftop restaurant overlooking the National Palace.
As always, feel free to ask me for recommendations on hotels, restaurants, etc.
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See Pomp's reply in the comment section.
It's probably an indication of current BTC sentiment that Anthony Pompliano was in the Oval Office today for the meeting on kids' investment accounts and it doesn't seem to be getting much attention from traders. MSTR obviously has the headlines for now.
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It's probably an indication of current BTC sentiment that Anthony Pompliano was in the Oval Office today for the meeting on kids' investment accounts and it doesn't seem to be getting much attention from traders. MSTR obviously has the headlines for now.
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Important. Remember that new Fed chairs always establish their inflation-fighting bona fides immediately upon taking office. Always. It's what they start to say afterwards that should be watched (it's sort of like a stock, where the initial reaction after earnings can often be faded). This type of softening should be watched closely in coming weeks and months. You can see gold's immediate reaction this morning. Most dovish raise ever coming next?
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FED'S WARSH: EXPECTATIONS OF INFLATION OVER THE FIRST FOUR WEEKS HAVE COME DOWN
Sovereign discussion starts at 2:50.
I posted this on May 31: "While overleveraged traders are getting blown out on dips, a sovereign wealth fund like Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala is happy to sit on the bid and take it in."
This executive used to work at Mubadala, according to his bio.
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MidChains (@MidChains_) CEO Basil Al Askari said that “at least one” sovereign wealth fund is accumulating spot Bitcoin while the price is down, with another potentially set to begin buying in the coming weeks.
“It sends a very clear signal to let’s say other institutions that are maybe sitting on the sidelines and looking at these larger funds as kind of leaders of the asset class.”
#CHAINREACTION#
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I spent time this weekend with some college students. I don’t interact much with this age group, so I found it interesting. Here’s some recon.
There was a conversation about money. BTC came up. I asked if their friends know a lot about it. Reply: “Yes, lots of people. They are always looking at it.”
I didn’t ask about gold. But something tells me I wouldn't have gotten a similar response. That’s a huge change from 40 years ago when I was in college; there was widespread awareness of gold (it was the aftermath of gold’s surge in the 1970s) and it was an important part of introductory economics courses on college campuses.
Takeaway: The perception among young people of BTC as a fundamental part of the financial system isn’t going away. It’s permanent. And these young people will eventually become middle-aged people.
We also talked about school-related costs for students these days. I was shocked. It’s not just tuition; there are tons of related fees and costs. This pays the generous salaries of school administrators. I was reminded of a friend of mine who works in fundraising at an Ivy League school and makes $1 million per year.
Private schools should be able to charge students -- and pay faculty and administrators -- whatever they want. But if you take taxpayer money, it’s a different story. And these schools have gotten fat off taxpayer money for decades. When someone in fundraising -- fundraising! -- can make more than most people on Wall Street, something has gone terribly wrong. This is a disgrace and it deserves far more attention. I say this as as an Ivy League MBA.
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Watch this video. I've been here four times.
World-class airport, hospital, library, and national stadium (being built). Anyone noticing a trend in terms of public infrastructure?
From its top in 1974 to its bottom in 1976, gold dropped about 50%.
From its top in 2025 to today, BTC has dropped about 50%.
From 1976 to 1980, gold rose 750%.
I was young but I remember that late-1970s gold surge.
Historical analogues like this get posted often on twitter. They should never be interpreted as predictions, just frameworks for investors to keep in mind if broader conditions start to line up.
13F season is coming up, so we’ll see what the macro guys like Paul Tudor Jones did on BTC in the past few months. He’s been hugely prescient on it -- selling IBIT in the second half of 2025, according to filings, but then keeping his remaining position and not selling any during the first three months of this year.
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It’s now well-known that SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC, making it one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders in the world.
But almost nothing is known beyond that. As far as I can tell, Elon’s last public statement on this was in 2021 (if I’m wrong, please post in the comments section).
Now that the company is public, watch for more disclosures. This could be company plans related to BTC, possible additional accumulation, etc. Disclosures could happen in regulatory filings, quarterly conference calls, or media reports/interviews.
Traders should be watching this in coming months.
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Posted one week ago -- at the height of “let’s free up some funds to buy SpaceX.” BTC’s low on that day: 59k. As of now, the capital rotation thesis (especially re: retail investors) looks correct. Let's see what happens from here.
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Just in case anyone didn’t understand that this BTC selloff is mostly a capital rotation story and not BTC-specific. Very easy to click “sell IBIT” in the brokerage account to free up funds for this.
In the long term, BTC will continue to greatly benefit from creation of an ETF. It also becomes more susceptible to short-term capital rotations by mainstream investors.
This rotation should slow (may have already started in the past day) then eventually reverse.
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Worth watching. Lots of insight here.
What does Wall Street actually see in Bitcoin? I sat down with someone leading the charge from the inside.
Amy Oldenburg runs digital asset strategy at Morgan Stanley. We talk about how much Bitcoin should be in a portfolio, the success of $MSBT, why the price of bitcoin has been stuck and what could finally move it.
Full conversation streaming now!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Tech Roots: From the 1999 Tech Bubble to Emerging Markets
8:26 Why Bitcoin Made Sense Early On
14:17 Morgan Stanley's Spot Bitcoin ETF
16:43 Why Aren't Institutions All-In On Bitcoin?
19:18 Record Demand for MSBT
21:21 Would Morgan Stanley Ever Issue Digital Credit?
23:42 The Advisor Gap: Why Isn’t Everyone Recommending Bitcoin?
28:37 What's Holding Bitcoin Back?
34:19 Corporate Balance Sheets
36:22 Bitcoin's Future
38:05 What Should More People Understand About Bitcoin?
39:15 Winner-Take-All Tech vs. Redundant Finance: The Industry's Future
45:32 Addressing Big Bank Skepticism
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Businessman visits El Zonte (Bitcoin Beach), decides his airline will establish three weekly flights between Europe and El Salvador. This type of enthusiasm tends to happen easily once you visit the country.
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🇸🇻 English Translation From Diario El Salvador:
Interest from More International Airlines
Tourism Minister Morena Valdez announced that an airline will soon begin three weekly flights to Europe.
Minister Valdez stated that there is growing interest from foreign airlines, especially from Europe, in starting operations in El Salvador, a sign that reflects the transformation the country has undergone as a tourist and business destination.
"We will have another flight connecting with Europe. I can't reveal the airline yet. The businessman was in the country, visited El Zonte, loved it, and has already established operations in El Salvador. He told us that his airline will have three weekly flights to Europe, connecting with the Middle East and Asia," Minister Valdez announced during an event hosted by the Salvadoran Chamber of Tourism (Casatur).
The official emphasized that these types of initiatives are important because Europeans spend two to three weeks in the country. "That means more foreign exchange earnings, more income for businesses, and job creation," she added.
The increase in international visitors, the country's ranking in specialized studies and rankings, and the modernization of its airport infrastructure have made El Salvador a strategic hub for new air connections in the region.
Data from the Ministry of Tourism indicates that El Salvador received 2.1 million international visitors between January and May of this year, representing a 33% increase compared to the same period in 2015 and an impressive 111% growth compared to 2019.
Article by: Jonathan Pineda
Translation: @ElsalvadoronX
Original article in Spanish:
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Meanwhile BTC pops a couple thousand bucks. In case you weren't sure that a big part of its recent weakness has been capital rotation and not BTC-specific.
*SK HYNIX, SAMSUNG PLUNGE MORE THAN 9% IN PRE-MARKET ON NEXTRADE
"As money saved diminished like a lump of ice on a summer's day, there was every incentive to eat it, drink it or be merry with it."
-When Money Dies by Adam Fergusson
Adding to the post below. It should go without saying that for institutional investors, the now-vanished prospect of imminent rate cuts under Warsh is playing a big role in BTC’s selloff (see gold too).
Any expectations of an extended hiking campaign are obviously unrealistic, but since expectations impact price, they will be important to watch. In the long run, we all know where monetary policy is going.
Watch what the macro guys say and do on BTC in coming weeks and months. Paul Tudor Jones’ remarks in April about BTC as the best inflation hedge should be required viewing for anyone in this space (see my post on April 28). Note that Tudor has been hugely prescient on BTC; the firm was an IBIT seller in the second half of 2025, according to filings, but Tudor's most recent 13F showed it kept its existing position and didn’t sell any during the first three months of this year. The next round of 13Fs will be interesting and important, especially for known sovereign buyers like Mubadala.
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Just in case anyone didn’t understand that this BTC selloff is mostly a capital rotation story and not BTC-specific. Very easy to click “sell IBIT” in the brokerage account to free up funds for this.
In the long term, BTC will continue to greatly benefit from creation of an ETF. It also becomes more susceptible to short-term capital rotations by mainstream investors.
This rotation should slow (may have already started in the past day) then eventually reverse.
Show more
