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Maskache
@Mask4che
I’m trying to place political bets, but I’m only profitable on the weather
562 Following    1.1K Followers
Recently, there has been some drawbacks on Polymarket weather markets volume as a consequence of some series of changes. I'm writing this thread to address problems, so that we can have a better market in future and get the problems fixed.
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The biggest alpha for @Polymarket ? Be a community member! Find a group of people that are sharp and you enjoy working with especially if you're new. You will learn much faster with a team and hopefully you can get insight or counter points. You can share larger markets once you have reached your sizing limit and others will too. Even better if you find friends that have different niches.
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Thoughts and prayers for the traders in the London market today. 🙏
I am asking for brackets fix for 2 months and no one can take a time to look at it on Weather Markets. @mustafap0ly @williamlegate @devjoshstevens What you guys are doing.. Polymarket haves a big team, and no one can really fix it?? The liquidity is THE WORST right now. Even in major cities. Can you please Fix everything, or no one of your big team can really take a look at that?????
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(1/∞)🧵 I am proud to present the most comprehensive historical electoral database in Canada on spanning 2 centuries!! The database includes maps, candidates, and riding history. You can even simulate every elections! Link:
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I have no idea how it happened, but I’ve somehow become a living meme in the Polymarket comments. 💀 For weeks now, I’ve been seeing posts about my supposed "weather bot" from the 5-min Crypto markets to the 2028 Dem nomination. Now, the Maskache Multiverse is officially born: • BrownMustache 🥸 • Maskachetto 🇲🇽 • Gai Maskache 🏳️🌈 Honestly, I find it hilarious and it’s an honor to see these accounts popping up. 🫡 I’ve been using alts to dodge the copytraders, but it’s time to embrace the chaos. Maskache is coming back. 📈
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Seeing a lot of posts lately (mostly AI slop) hyping up certain traders while treating everyone on the other side of the trade like they’re stupid. Respect the market. Respect your counterparty. The person taking the opposite side of your bet isn’t an idiot. They just see the board differently. Even if they end up losing, their decision might have been mathematically sound at the time. Polymarket is a lot like poker. The player who loses at the final table isn't stupid, and the winner isn't necessarily a genius. Just like weather forecasting, there are many valid models and different ways to find an edge. Ultimately, it’s all about Expected Value (+EV). If you pay 10¢ for an event that has a true 30% probability of happening, that is a fantastic trade. But you still have a 70% chance of losing. Stop judging decisions purely by the outcome. Understand the math, and stay humble.
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Amidst all the nonsense being said about the Seoul market, there is some truth to be found here:
My feed is full of posts about the Seoul market from people who are clearly just farming a potential Polymarket airdrop. A lot of it is misleading and can easily make beginner weather traders lose money. So here’s a quick thread >>>
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No professional sports team in North America hosts a playoff game as good as the Montreal Canadians 😮‍💨
Dear Weather Gods, April 25th. Station 113, RKSI. We come to you again. The south wind is weak. The runway is baking under the midday sun. We need a good gust from the southwest, the cool breath of the Yellow Sea, to wash over the tarmac and bring the sensor back to reason. At 12:30 KST, let the temperature drop below 20.5°C. And let it stay there for every METAR that follows today. This is not a prayer from one trader. There are many of us, all believers. Deliver us from 20.5 and we will be eternally grateful. We will spread your word. 20.4 is salvation. 20.5 is suffering. Amen.
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I trade on Polymarket just so one day I can see a post in my feed with my profile and the caption “this guy came up with his own strategy and absolutely crushed the weather markets on Polymarket”
Regarding the Paris temperature market incidents, people mention two suspected instances of manipulation on April 6 and April 15. April 6: The temperature suddenly spiked in the evening and fluctuated up and down for over an hour. This spike resulted in the account “Kyrgyzhydromet” making $16.5k. The incident was discussed in a French meteorological forum and attributed to maintenance. I believe no manipulation occurred that day. The winning account is actually my alt, I noticed the temperature fluctuations early and bought undervalued shares before others reacted. April 15: The temperature again spiked suddenly, but only for a single reading before immediately dropping back to its previous level. The account “xX25Xx” made $21k. Unlike April 6, these purchases were made well before the spike. This, combined with the nature of the spike, leads me and many others to believe that manipulation may indeed have taken place. A Polymarket staff member has confirmed that the current airport will be replaced with another one. If manipulation did occur, I hope the French authorities investigate the matter and identify those responsible. Attached below is an image of the spike on April 15.
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