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Maskache
@Mask4che
I’m trying to place political bets, but I’m only profitable on the weather
Joined February 2023
563 Following    1.1K Followers
Seeing a lot of posts lately (mostly AI slop) hyping up certain traders while treating everyone on the other side of the trade like they’re stupid. Respect the market. Respect your counterparty. The person taking the opposite side of your bet isn’t an idiot. They just see the board differently. Even if they end up losing, their decision might have been mathematically sound at the time. Polymarket is a lot like poker. The player who loses at the final table isn't stupid, and the winner isn't necessarily a genius. Just like weather forecasting, there are many valid models and different ways to find an edge. Ultimately, it’s all about Expected Value (+EV). If you pay 10¢ for an event that has a true 30% probability of happening, that is a fantastic trade. But you still have a 70% chance of losing. Stop judging decisions purely by the outcome. Understand the math, and stay humble.
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