Matt Hougan
@Matt_Hougan
CIO @Bitwise. Co-founder @FutureProof_HQ. Previously CEO @ETFcom. Husband, father, & runner (when I find time).
560 Following 103.9K Followers
There are no sellers left in crypto.
* 3.7% inflation print >> Doesn't matter
* AI bubble bursting >> Doesn't matter
* Binance hack >> Doesn't matter
* Election tsunami >> Doesn't matter
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As usual, @scottmelker got to the core of our analysis: The biggest question for our 10-year BTC price target is whether bitcoin will take a rising share of the store of value market over time.
For context, I had Claude plot BTC's historical share of this market. IMHO looks pretty good. We'll see where this ends up in 2036.
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The reality is that last year was a pretty good one for bitcoin:
* Lower drawdown than previous cycles
* Platform approvals at every major wealth manager
* The first central bank purchase of bitcoin
* Institutional inflows despite challenging prices
* Rising worries about government debt
* Growing demand for non-fiat assets globally
It didn't feel good, but it was actually pretty strong.
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Bitcoin is better positioned today than at any point in its past. We're boosting our 10-year bitcoin target from $1.3m to $1.6m.
Huge. Blockworks is doing it right here.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.
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The Fed is citing stablecoin demand as an offset for China selling Treasuries.
The entire stablecoin ecosystem is going much, much higher.
If you've ever wondered what big institutions like sovereign wealth funds, pensions, and endowments really think about crypto, read this report.
The $NEAR team has been heads down building for years. It’s wonderful to see the world finally starting to recognize it. Still early.
Tokenization is a mega trend. Just today, the SEC created a pathway for tokenized stocks to trade in the US, S&P acquired @OpenZeppelin, and DeFi assets are ripping. If you had doubts before, today should put them to rest. The world is moving onchain.
The thing about investing in mega trends is that they go on longer than you think.
ChatGPT launched in November 2022. NVDA was trading for $16. A year later, it was obvious AI was a megatrend and NVDA was up 176% to $46.
The right thing to do at that point was not to kick yourself for missing the move. It was to buy in size. Today, NVDA is $219.
You probably wish you bought into DeFi and tokenization in June when prices were lower. But this is a multi-year transformation of how finance works. If it plays out as I think it will, there is plenty of upside ahead.
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The bitcoin rally will continue until the debt situation improves.
A year ago, crypto had one narrative: ETF flows.
Now there are at least five:
1) Debasement >> BTC
2) Privacy >> ZEC
3) Tokenization >> ETH, SOL, LINK, HOOD, CRCL (and others)
4) Revenue >> HYPE, PUMP, UNI (and others).
5) Attention >> HOOD, PUMP, PONS
The breadth is bullish.
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If you’re not watching @notthreadguy in the morning you’re missing out.
It's wild how quickly we went from talking about $2 billion to talking about $1 trillion.
$1 trillion 🏦
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
There is a lot going on right now that rhymes with "the bottom is in."
Alex Thorn points out Bitcoin reclaiming its 50 week moving average has marked the bottom 11 out of 13 times
"Bitcoin, just from looking empirically at the charts, really does need to recapture the 50 week moving average here. It's around 81, Mike says around 82, but either way it's not that far from here"
"Something like 11 out of 13 times that Bitcoin crossed the 50 week moving average to the upside in a bear market, it signaled the bottom was in"
"Only twice did it not, and both of those were in between the two peaks of 2021, so not even quite a real cyclical drawdown, though certainly a bear market because it went down 50 plus"
"If you were to zoom out, you would find that every time we came out of a bear market crossing that 50 week to the upside, it did not ultimately go lower"
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This bears repeating……. now more than ever.
The thing that makes this rally interesting to me is that most of the buyers are playing the cycle; that is, they are thinking about a 3+ year investment not a 3-day trade.
Extremely momentous break up in btc and complex.
Rare break of 50/100/200 d all in a few days. Mkt is caught short badly.
Pointless to call day to day.
Big Low is in.
Hardest thing to buy here if you aren't long already.
Greatest amount of pain is back to 100k immediately.
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