Alex Thorn points out Bitcoin reclaiming its 50 week moving average has marked the bottom 11 out of 13 times "Bitcoin, just from looking empirically at the charts, really does need to recapture the 50 week moving average here. It's around 81, Mike says around 82, but either way it's not that far from here" "Something like 11 out of 13 times that Bitcoin crossed the 50 week moving average to the upside in a bear market, it signaled the bottom was in" "Only twice did it not, and both of those were in between the two peaks of 2021, so not even quite a real cyclical drawdown, though certainly a bear market because it went down 50 plus" "If you were to zoom out, you would find that every time we came out of a bear market crossing that 50 week to the upside, it did not ultimately go lower"

Extremely momentous break up in btc and complex. Rare break of 50/100/200 d all in a few days. Mkt is caught short badly. Pointless to call day to day. Big Low is in. Hardest thing to buy here if you aren't long already. Greatest amount of pain is back to 100k immediately.

Think $SOL is about to make a big comeback and is the most asymmetric major over the next 6 – 18 months. Some notes. 1. After 10 months in a row of down only, most retail and funds have capitulated, leaving only committed holders 2. One of three index assets alongside BTC and ETH that both retail and institutions will reflexively bid once it’s clear we’re back 3. Highest concentration of revenue generating apps and some of the strongest network effects of any general purpose L1 4. Solana has the most credible path to scale of any L1 w/ slot times approaching 200ms by end of Sept 5. Upcoming SIMDs will strengthen SOL economics through increased fee burns and lower inflation. Estimate Solana REV could 2x – 4x in next year easy 6. Stablecoin volumes rivaling Ethereum, Tron, Base for top payments chain 7. Tokenized equity volumes are ramping with Solana as the leader across all L1s 8. Long tail markets like memecoins, TCG, and MetaDAO “ownership” (startups) coins are all accelerating 9. Social trading apps like Fomo and Pump are onboarding a big wave of new users with Solana as the largest beneficiary There were many reasons to be critical about Solana over the past year, but the past is becoming past. Fundamentals look great and the value capture story will only improve with each passing quarter. Targeting much much higher.

Matt Hougan on the three things driving ETH "I'd call out three in particular. One is it became a really hated asset. This idea that there were no sellers left, which was true in crypto broadly, I think was really true in ETH. Anyone who got tired of ETH definitely puked and sold a few months ago, right at the depths of the foundation reorg. Everyone who wanted to sell had sold" "I also think ETH had a little bit of community momentum, because it started to do a few things right after that foundation retreat and collapse, with the formation of these new entities. It was already outperforming Bitcoin during the last few weeks, so it was ready to run" "And I do think the stablecoin and tokenization thing is a big meta theme, and people thought ETH is at the center of that, I'm going to own it" "You put all those together and you get this explosive upside move. But a lot of this move is just no sellers, it's a no seller move, so even a little bit of demand just skyrockets these assets"

Arthur Hayes says $ETH is his largest position outside bitcoin:native "ETH is some of the most hated large cap shitcoin out there, the number two largest coin by market cap that has not eclipsed its 2021 all time high" "From a risk reward perspective, at least the way I manage the portfolio at Maelstrom, this is our largest position outside of Bitcoin right now. I'm not particularly worried that if I wake up one morning ETH is going to zero. Obviously it could happen, but the risk of that versus another crypto is much lower, so I'm happy to put a lot of size on this trade" "Because it hasn't moved that much this past cycle, I think it has a lot of catching up to do. Once it starts moving, the reflexive train is going to get going. There are so many people who want to be long ETH for all sorts of reasons, and there are really good reasons why they haven't been for the past few years" "Once we break through the 3000 level, I think you're really going to start seeing the train moving on ETH, and it could quickly eclipse 5,000. My year end target is within reach"