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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Helping you get smarter about macro investing. Subscribe for free to learn how global markets move Bitcoin, stocks, gold and more. By @MilkRoad
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Jensen Huang just told you where to invest in 2026: Sustainable energy. His argument is simple: For decades, building solar farms and nuclear plants required government subsidies. The economics didn't work on their own. That era is over. AI data centers have created a power demand so massive that the market will now pay you to build clean energy infrastructure. No subsidies needed. The economics work without them. "Back in the old days you needed government subsidies to go build solar farms, to build nuclear plants. Now the market will pay you to do it." This is a structural shift, not a policy bet. America's energy grid was built for a different era. It is archaic. It was not designed to handle hundreds of gigawatts of new AI compute demand coming online in a compressed timeframe. That grid needs to be upgraded. The transmission lines, the substations, the generation capacity, all of it. Huang is saying that for the first time in history, the economic incentives to fix all of that are fully aligned with the technology incentives. The companies building that infrastructure, whether it's nuclear power, utility-scale solar, grid modernization, or energy transmission, are sitting at the intersection of two of the most powerful demand curves in the world right now. AI and the clean energy transition. That is not a two-year trade. That is a decade-long buildout. Our analysts are already positioned in the names at the center of this shift. They called $AMD, $MU, $CRDO and $NBIS before the big runs. Don’t miss their call, come join us for just a $1. (link in bio)
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In the last few months, something shifted inside Citadel. Ken Griffin explains: Work that used to take people with Masters degrees and PhDs in finance weeks or months to complete is now being done by AI agents in hours or days. And Griffin is clear about what kind of work this is. Not mid-tier. Not admin. Not data entry. "These are extraordinarily high-skilled jobs being automated by agentic AI." He watched it happen inside his own four walls. Months of work compressed into days. And instead of feeling excited, he went home that Friday feeling the weight of what it meant for the rest of society. "When you see work that used to take months being done in days, it's like, wow. That's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls." This is the signal that matters. For years, the debate about AI in the workplace was theoretical. Now the CEO of one of the world's most sophisticated hedge funds is watching it happen in real time and describing it as a profound societal shift. Agentic AI is not next year's problem. It is a present reality at the frontier of finance right now. The companies building the infrastructure behind this shift are still in the early innings. Our analysts were early to $AMD, $MU and $CRDO. They're already watching what comes next in the AI buildout. Follow their exact portfolios for $1 at Milk Road PRO. Don't navigate this market alone, link in bio.
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Ken Griffin just asked the question everyone in AI is too scared to answer. Data center spending in the US this year alone is over $500 billion. Half a trillion dollars. To raise that kind of money, you have to make a promise. And the promise has to be big. "AI needs to be your savior almost. How else are you going to write $500 billion of checks in a single year?" He's not saying AI is fraud. He's saying the hype is structurally necessary. You can't fund a buildout at this scale without narrative that matches it. The real question is what AI actually delivers at the end. In some areas Griffin says it's going to be profound. Call centers. Software engineering productivity. Those are real, measurable, already happening. But in white collar work more broadly, he's more skeptical. A Harvard paper recently coined a term for it: AI Work Slop. Output that looks impressive on the surface. First few sentences read like genuine insight. Then you go deeper and it's all garbage. Griffin's colleague runs their commodities business. Got handed a report generated by an AI engine. First paragraph, genuinely good. The rest, useless. The model that can write a compelling opening can't yet think through the substance underneath it. This is the AI investing tension right now. The infrastructure spend is real. The hype is real. The productivity gains in specific verticals are real. But the blanket assumption that AI transforms every white collar job equally has not been proven yet.
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Ken Griffin just asked the question everyone in AI is too scared to answer. Data center spending in the US this year alone is over $500 billion. Half a trillion dollars. To raise that kind of money, you have to make a promise. And the promise has to be big. "AI needs to be your savior almost. How else are you going to write $500 billion of checks in a single year?" He's not saying AI is fraud. He's saying the hype is structurally necessary. You can't fund a buildout at this scale without narrative that matches it. The real question is what AI actually delivers at the end. In some areas Griffin says it's going to be profound. Call centers. Software engineering productivity. Those are real, measurable, already happening. But in white collar work more broadly, he's more skeptical. A Harvard paper recently coined a term for it: AI Work Slop. Output that looks impressive on the surface. First few sentences read like genuine insight. Then you go deeper and it's all garbage. Griffin's colleague runs their commodities business. Got handed a report generated by an AI engine. First paragraph, genuinely good. The rest, useless. The model that can write a compelling opening can't yet think through the substance underneath it. This is the AI investing tension right now. The infrastructure spend is real. The hype is real. The productivity gains in specific verticals are real. But the blanket assumption that AI transforms every white collar job equally has not been proven yet.
Show more
Jensen Huang just told you where to invest in 2026: Sustainable energy. His argument is simple: For decades, building solar farms and nuclear plants required government subsidies. The economics didn't work on their own. That era is over. AI data centers have created a power demand so massive that the market will now pay you to build clean energy infrastructure. No subsidies needed. The economics work without them. "Back in the old days you needed government subsidies to go build solar farms, to build nuclear plants. Now the market will pay you to do it." This is a structural shift, not a policy bet. America's energy grid was built for a different era. It is archaic. It was not designed to handle hundreds of gigawatts of new AI compute demand coming online in a compressed timeframe. That grid needs to be upgraded. The transmission lines, the substations, the generation capacity, all of it. Huang is saying that for the first time in history, the economic incentives to fix all of that are fully aligned with the technology incentives. The companies building that infrastructure, whether it's nuclear power, utility-scale solar, grid modernization, or energy transmission, are sitting at the intersection of two of the most powerful demand curves in the world right now. AI and the clean energy transition. That is not a two-year trade. That is a decade-long buildout. Our analysts are already positioned in the names at the center of this shift. They called $AMD, $MU, $CRDO and $NBIS before the big runs. Don’t miss their call, come join us for just a $1. (link in bio)
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Secretary Rubio just said something every investor with global exposure needs to hear. China has a plan. They believe they will surpass the United States and become the world's most powerful country. And they are executing on that plan. Rubio's framing was unusually direct for a sitting Secretary of State. "I don't blame them. If I were the Chinese government, I would have the same plan." This is not a condemnation. It is a clear-eyed read of how nation-states behave. China is acting rationally in its own interest. The problem isn't the plan. The problem is where that plan intersects with American interests. "Their rise cannot come at our expense. Their rise cannot come at our fall." That is the line. And Rubio was explicit that this tension is not a short-term trade conflict. It is a defining feature of the relationship, one that will be playing out for a long time. For investors, this has real portfolio implications. A prolonged US-China rivalry means continued pressure on supply chains that run through China. It means defense and semiconductor investment remains a national priority. It means reshoring and allied-nation manufacturing continues to attract capital. It means companies with deep China revenue exposure carry a geopolitical risk premium that isn't going away. The market has priced some of this in. It has not priced all of it in.
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Bill Ackman just explained the two trades that made him $5.2 billion in three years. Both started the same way. He saw a storm coming that everyone else was ignoring. Trade one: COVID, January 2020. Ackman read the early data and concluded the world might have to shut down its entire economy to stop the spread. Equity and credit markets were priced as if everything was fine. Over 10 days, he bought $74 billion of notional credit insurance. The premium cost him $27 million. Ten days later it was worth $2.6 billion. He took every dollar of that and bought stocks with the market down 30%. Trade two: inflation, late 2020. He saw the setup clearly. Trillions in government spending. Rates at zero. A vaccine coming that would unleash pent-up demand. Supply chains already disrupted. He concluded a massive demand shock was coming into a constrained supply environment and that inflation was inevitable. He bought interest rate options when the 2-year treasury was at 12 basis points. The strike was at 94 basis points, 0.94%, which at the time looked impossibly out of the money. It still looked like a low rate. Those options turned into another $2.6 billion in profit. He bought stocks again. His framework hasn't changed across either trade. Two storms. $27 million in. $5.2 billion out. Stocks bought both times at the bottom.
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In the last few months, something shifted inside Citadel. Ken Griffin explains: Work that used to take people with Masters degrees and PhDs in finance weeks or months to complete is now being done by AI agents in hours or days. And Griffin is clear about what kind of work this is. Not mid-tier. Not admin. Not data entry. "These are extraordinarily high-skilled jobs being automated by agentic AI." He watched it happen inside his own four walls. Months of work compressed into days. And instead of feeling excited, he went home that Friday feeling the weight of what it meant for the rest of society. "When you see work that used to take months being done in days, it's like, wow. That's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls." This is the signal that matters. For years, the debate about AI in the workplace was theoretical. Now the CEO of one of the world's most sophisticated hedge funds is watching it happen in real time and describing it as a profound societal shift. Agentic AI is not next year's problem. It is a present reality at the frontier of finance right now. The companies building the infrastructure behind this shift are still in the early innings. Our analysts were early to $AMD, $MU and $CRDO. They're already watching what comes next in the AI buildout. Follow their exact portfolios for $1 at Milk Road PRO. Don't navigate this market alone, link in bio.
Show more
Ken Griffin just asked the question everyone in AI is too scared to answer. Data center spending in the US this year alone is over $500 billion. Half a trillion dollars. To raise that kind of money, you have to make a promise. And the promise has to be big. "AI needs to be your savior almost. How else are you going to write $500 billion of checks in a single year?" He's not saying AI is fraud. He's saying the hype is structurally necessary. You can't fund a buildout at this scale without narrative that matches it. The real question is what AI actually delivers at the end. In some areas Griffin says it's going to be profound. Call centers. Software engineering productivity. Those are real, measurable, already happening. But in white collar work more broadly, he's more skeptical. A Harvard paper recently coined a term for it: AI Work Slop. Output that looks impressive on the surface. First few sentences read like genuine insight. Then you go deeper and it's all garbage. Griffin's colleague runs their commodities business. Got handed a report generated by an AI engine. First paragraph, genuinely good. The rest, useless. The model that can write a compelling opening can't yet think through the substance underneath it. This is the AI investing tension right now. The infrastructure spend is real. The hype is real. The productivity gains in specific verticals are real. But the blanket assumption that AI transforms every white collar job equally has not been proven yet.
Show more
Kevin Warsh is expected to be the next Fed Chair. Here's exactly what he'd do differently. He starts with the numbers nobody wants to sit with. The day before COVID, the US was paying roughly $1 billion per day in interest on its debt. Today that number is over $3 billion per day. Every single day. None of it goes to the military. None of it helps the least well off. It's just being squandered. His diagnosis: the Fed inherited a fiscal and monetary mess and has been using both of its policy tools inconsistently. Most people think the Fed has one lever: interest rates. Warsh says there are two. Interest rates and the balance sheet. The $7 trillion balance sheet that is an order of magnitude larger than when he was last at the Fed. Here's the problem: The Fed grew the balance sheet to flood the system with money. That causes inflation to run above target. Then to fight the inflation it created, the Fed raises interest rates. Both levers pulling against each other at the same time. "If the balance sheet mattered when you were growing it, it should matter when it's going the other direction." His prescription is straightforward. Shrink the balance sheet. Take the Fed out of markets unless there's a crisis. In doing so you reduce the inflation pressure it's been generating. And with lower inflation, you can actually bring interest rates down, which is what the real economy needs. He calls it practical monetarism. And he wants a formal accord between Treasury and the Fed, like the 1951 agreement that clearly separated who is responsible for what.
Show more
Secretary Rubio just said something every investor with global exposure needs to hear. China has a plan. They believe they will surpass the United States and become the world's most powerful country. And they are executing on that plan. Rubio's framing was unusually direct for a sitting Secretary of State. "I don't blame them. If I were the Chinese government, I would have the same plan." This is not a condemnation. It is a clear-eyed read of how nation-states behave. China is acting rationally in its own interest. The problem isn't the plan. The problem is where that plan intersects with American interests. "Their rise cannot come at our expense. Their rise cannot come at our fall." That is the line. And Rubio was explicit that this tension is not a short-term trade conflict. It is a defining feature of the relationship, one that will be playing out for a long time. For investors, this has real portfolio implications. A prolonged US-China rivalry means continued pressure on supply chains that run through China. It means defense and semiconductor investment remains a national priority. It means reshoring and allied-nation manufacturing continues to attract capital. It means companies with deep China revenue exposure carry a geopolitical risk premium that isn't going away. The market has priced some of this in. It has not priced all of it in.
Show more
Bill Ackman just explained the two trades that made him $5.2 billion in three years. Both started the same way. He saw a storm coming that everyone else was ignoring. Trade one: COVID, January 2020. Ackman read the early data and concluded the world might have to shut down its entire economy to stop the spread. Equity and credit markets were priced as if everything was fine. Over 10 days, he bought $74 billion of notional credit insurance. The premium cost him $27 million. Ten days later it was worth $2.6 billion. He took every dollar of that and bought stocks with the market down 30%. Trade two: inflation, late 2020. He saw the setup clearly. Trillions in government spending. Rates at zero. A vaccine coming that would unleash pent-up demand. Supply chains already disrupted. He concluded a massive demand shock was coming into a constrained supply environment and that inflation was inevitable. He bought interest rate options when the 2-year treasury was at 12 basis points. The strike was at 94 basis points, 0.94%, which at the time looked impossibly out of the money. It still looked like a low rate. Those options turned into another $2.6 billion in profit. He bought stocks again. His framework hasn't changed across either trade. Two storms. $27 million in. $5.2 billion out. Stocks bought both times at the bottom.
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Ken Griffin just asked the question everyone in AI is too scared to answer. Data center spending in the US this year alone is over $500 billion. Half a trillion dollars. To raise that kind of money, you have to make a promise. And the promise has to be big. "AI needs to be your savior almost. How else are you going to write $500 billion of checks in a single year?" He's not saying AI is fraud. He's saying the hype is structurally necessary. You can't fund a buildout at this scale without narrative that matches it. The real question is what AI actually delivers at the end. In some areas Griffin says it's going to be profound. Call centers. Software engineering productivity. Those are real, measurable, already happening. But in white collar work more broadly, he's more skeptical. A Harvard paper recently coined a term for it: AI Work Slop. Output that looks impressive on the surface. First few sentences read like genuine insight. Then you go deeper and it's all garbage. Griffin's colleague runs their commodities business. Got handed a report generated by an AI engine. First paragraph, genuinely good. The rest, useless. The model that can write a compelling opening can't yet think through the substance underneath it. This is the AI investing tension right now. The infrastructure spend is real. The hype is real. The productivity gains in specific verticals are real. But the blanket assumption that AI transforms every white collar job equally has not been proven yet.
Show more
Elon Musk just explained how he thinks about a decision worth $100 million. Tesla will do over $100 billion in revenue this year. That's $2 billion a week. At that scale, a slightly better decision can affect the outcome by $1 billion. The marginal value of one hour of clearer thinking can be $100 million or more. So how does he avoid being paralyzed by that? He thinks in percentages, not absolutes. If he thought in absolute dollar terms about every choice, he'd never sleep. He'd just keep working, grinding harder, trying to extract more output from his own brain. That's not a system. That's a breakdown. Percentages keep the decisions manageable. Even when the numbers underneath them are enormous. On happiness, his answer is colder than you'd expect. It's not that he values happiness for its own sake. It's that being depressed makes him worse at the job. If he has zero recreational time, the decisions get worse. His actual motivation isn't money or even success. He calls it a religion of curiosity. Understanding the universe. Framing the right questions. SpaceX exists to make life multi-planetary partly because of the Fermi paradox. If intelligent life is this rare, it might be extremely fragile. One planet is one point of failure. Think about what that framing means. The world's most productive allocator of capital runs his life on a single principle: understand things more deeply than anyone else, make better decisions than the alternative, and hold some recreational time above zero or the whole system degrades. The best investors operate the same way. Our analysts don't chase noise. They go deep, hold conviction, and let the returns follow. They called $AMD (+101.2%), $MU (+97.2%), $CRDO (+76.6%) and $NBIS (+64.3%). Follow their exact portfolios for $1 at Milk Road PRO. Don't navigate this market alone, link in bio.
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Larry Fink just said something that every investor needs to hear. "The United States is short power, short compute, short chips. There are going to be shortages in all three and memory makes four. I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute." Think about what that means. The chairman of BlackRock, the largest asset manager on the planet with $11.5 trillion under management, is saying compute will trade like oil. Like grain. Like natural gas. A commodity so scarce and so structurally in demand that a derivatives market will emerge just to price the shortage. This is not a temporary bottleneck. AI infrastructure demand is growing at 80%+ annually while DRAM supply grows at just 16%. Advanced HBM production from Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron is sold out through 2026 and into 2027. A single AI server consumes 10 to 20 times more memory than a conventional workload server. The chip crunch, the power crunch, and the compute crunch are structural. They will get worse before they get better.
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AI infrastructure is a two year trade according to @LanceRoberts. Right now the money is flowing to the builders: - Data center construction - Energy transmission - Semiconductor chips. These companies are experiencing some of the fastest revenue growth in the market because the buildout is happening at a scale the world has never seen before. Trillions of dollars of capital chasing compute. But there's a clock running on all of it. Once the data centers are built, they're built. The construction revenue stops. The energy contracts stabilize. The chip orders normalize. The builders don't disappear but the explosive growth phase ends. And then a completely different question takes over. Who actually makes money from the AI running inside those data factories? That's a completely different set of companies and a completely different investment thesis. You need to be ready to rotate out of the builders and into the beneficiaries before that shift happens. Our analysts called $AMD, $MU and $CRDO early on the infrastructure side. They're already watching what comes next. Follow their exact portfolios for $1 at Milk Road PRO. Don't navigate this market alone, link in bio.
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This market rally is genuinely incredible. Since 1926, the S&P has averaged 12% per year. That's 1% per month. This year alone, 91% of trading days have been above that historical daily average. Half those days saw gains 2x or more above normal. In the last 26-27 trading days, 8 of them posted 1%+ gains. If 1% daily gains kept up all year, the market would triple in 12 months. Nobody expects that which means this pace can't hold. That doesn't mean a crash is coming but it's just that the current rate of increase isn't sustainable. @ricedelman
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Kevin Warsh is expected to be the next Fed Chair. Here's exactly what he'd do differently. He starts with the numbers nobody wants to sit with. The day before COVID, the US was paying roughly $1 billion per day in interest on its debt. Today that number is over $3 billion per day. Every single day. None of it goes to the military. None of it helps the least well off. It's just being squandered. His diagnosis: the Fed inherited a fiscal and monetary mess and has been using both of its policy tools inconsistently. Most people think the Fed has one lever: interest rates. Warsh says there are two. Interest rates and the balance sheet. The $7 trillion balance sheet that is an order of magnitude larger than when he was last at the Fed. Here's the problem: The Fed grew the balance sheet to flood the system with money. That causes inflation to run above target. Then to fight the inflation it created, the Fed raises interest rates. Both levers pulling against each other at the same time. "If the balance sheet mattered when you were growing it, it should matter when it's going the other direction." His prescription is straightforward. Shrink the balance sheet. Take the Fed out of markets unless there's a crisis. In doing so you reduce the inflation pressure it's been generating. And with lower inflation, you can actually bring interest rates down, which is what the real economy needs. He calls it practical monetarism. And he wants a formal accord between Treasury and the Fed, like the 1951 agreement that clearly separated who is responsible for what.
Show more
Today is Jerome Powell's last day as Fed Chair. Here's one of his most influential messages: US federal debt is growing substantially faster than the economy. That ratio is going up. And in the long run, that is the definition of unsustainable. "It will not end well if we don't do something fairly soon." He pointed to Japan as a country carrying far higher sovereign debt to GDP than the US. But he made clear that comparison only holds for so long. The fix isn't dramatic. You don't need to pay the debt down. You just need primary balance and the economy growing faster than the debt. The outgoing Fed Chair is telling you the fiscal path is unsustainable, that Washington isn't listening, and that it's not his problem to solve anymore. For investors, a debt path that doesn't bend eventually forces one of three outcomes: 1. Higher taxes 2. Spending cuts 3. Inflation that erodes the real value of the debt. Markets are not currently pricing any of those outcomes seriously. That's the setup walking into the next chapter of this cycle.
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BREAKING: After 3,018 days as Fed Chair, today is Jerome Powell’s final day in the position before his term expires.
Elon Musk just explained how he thinks about a decision worth $100 million. Tesla will do over $100 billion in revenue this year. That's $2 billion a week. At that scale, a slightly better decision can affect the outcome by $1 billion. The marginal value of one hour of clearer thinking can be $100 million or more. So how does he avoid being paralyzed by that? He thinks in percentages, not absolutes. If he thought in absolute dollar terms about every choice, he'd never sleep. He'd just keep working, grinding harder, trying to extract more output from his own brain. That's not a system. That's a breakdown. Percentages keep the decisions manageable. Even when the numbers underneath them are enormous. On happiness, his answer is colder than you'd expect. It's not that he values happiness for its own sake. It's that being depressed makes him worse at the job. If he has zero recreational time, the decisions get worse. His actual motivation isn't money or even success. He calls it a religion of curiosity. Understanding the universe. Framing the right questions. SpaceX exists to make life multi-planetary partly because of the Fermi paradox. If intelligent life is this rare, it might be extremely fragile. One planet is one point of failure. Think about what that framing means. The world's most productive allocator of capital runs his life on a single principle: understand things more deeply than anyone else, make better decisions than the alternative, and hold some recreational time above zero or the whole system degrades. The best investors operate the same way. Our analysts don't chase noise. They go deep, hold conviction, and let the returns follow. They called $AMD (+101.2%), $MU (+97.2%), $CRDO (+76.6%) and $NBIS (+64.3%). Follow their exact portfolios for $1 at Milk Road PRO. Don't navigate this market alone, link in bio.
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THE BOND MARKET IS COLLAPSING The US 10 year yield is at 4.55% for the first time since May 2025. Every time the 10 year yield has crossed 4.5%, it has coincided with a downturn in the S&P 500. The 10 year yield sets the floor on everything else: Mortgages, car loans, corporate debt, what it costs the government to borrow. When it moves, the whole economy reprices. Kevin Warsh walks in as new Fed Chair today carrying all of this. Cut rates and inflation accelerates from 3.8%. Hold and yields keep climbing while delinquencies build. Hike into a $2T annual deficit and find out what breaks first. There's no clean option. Last April, Trump's team hit pause on tariffs specifically because yields reached these levels and something broke in the Treasury market. We're back at those levels. Chart source: @BullTheoryio
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Our 5th warning: The bond market crisis is intensifying. The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025. After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today. As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current situation in the bond market is unsustainable. We are now above levels seen when President Trump implemented a "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025 due to a collapsing bond market. Furthermore, the market now sees a 60%+ chance that the Fed's next move is an interest rate HIKE, with rate cuts entirely priced-out. We expect to see 7%+ mortgages next, all as auto loan delinquencies have reached 32-year highs. Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.
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Trump said he could accept a 20 year suspension of Iran's nuclear program if backed by strong, verifiable guarantees. This is a major shift in tone. For months, his position was a permanent ban on Iran's nuclear program. The backstory: talks have been grinding since the US pulled out of the 2015 deal in 2018, then struck Iranian targets earlier this year. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said this week that negotiations are stuck on uranium stockpiles. Iran won't give them up and is actively talking to Russia about storage instead. The catch is the verification piece. The 2015 deal collapsed partly because the US and Iran couldn't agree on what verifiable actually meant in practice. That problem doesn't disappear because Trump softened the duration. So both sides are still far apart. But they're talking.
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IRAN ALLOWS 30 VESSELS THROUGH HORMUZ AFTER CHINESE DEAL Here's all you need to know: Iran hasn't allowed all ships to cross Hormuz yet. Just the ones from countries that worked out a deal with Iran first. China moved first. Japan and India got clearance too. The fix came through direct coordination between China's foreign minister and its ambassador in Tehran, built on their existing strategic partnership. Here's the setup that made this possible: Iran stood up the Persian Gulf Strait Authority on May 5. Every vessel now needs IRGC sign-off before it can pass. There are designated corridors. And there's a toll: roughly $1 per barrel of oil carried, payable in crypto. They've been enforcing it hard. Ships without clearance got turned back. Some Chinese vessels were actually seized before the deal came together. But why open up now? The US counter-blockade has been squeezing Iran's revenues. Ceasefire talks aren't moving. Iran needed cash and needed allies, so it traded access for both. What actually matters here: - China is now effectively Iran's logistics partner for Gulf transit. That's a structural change in how this waterway works. - Countries that haven't cut a deal yet are still locked out.
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Larry Fink just said something that every investor needs to hear. "The United States is short power, short compute, short chips. There are going to be shortages in all three and memory makes four. I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute." Think about what that means. The chairman of BlackRock, the largest asset manager on the planet with $11.5 trillion under management, is saying compute will trade like oil. Like grain. Like natural gas. A commodity so scarce and so structurally in demand that a derivatives market will emerge just to price the shortage. This is not a temporary bottleneck. AI infrastructure demand is growing at 80%+ annually while DRAM supply grows at just 16%. Advanced HBM production from Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron is sold out through 2026 and into 2027. A single AI server consumes 10 to 20 times more memory than a conventional workload server. The chip crunch, the power crunch, and the compute crunch are structural. They will get worse before they get better.
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