Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Founder of Silver Bulletin: and cohost of Still Counting podcast!
1.8K Following 3.1M Followers
All right, I tried to curate a fairly representative cross-section of 13 FLIPR maps for what might happen on Tuesday night. Warning: the last 3 or 4 are deliberately weird! Here's one that came up when the polls were in the 95th percentile of accuracy, however.
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@rabois You have my email, you're obviously too much of a pussy, but please contact me if you want to make an enforceable wager.
Trump approval starting to look like a dead ringer for Bush's second term.
What annoys me about the polling error debate is that there's a genre of commentators who seem to assume that everyone in the industry has been in a coma since 2014.
OK for just this week, gonna share our projected NFC standings from behind the paywall because they're kind of hilarious.
*No NFC East or NFC South team projected for a winning record.
*Every* NFC North and NFC West team projected for a winning record except the Cardinals.
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AI is a big W for 40-somethings. Old enough to have learned how to do things the right way, young enough to learn some new tricks.
Here's a map showing where regular gas prices have increased the most.
Keith idk what "oil" (by which I presume you mean gas) is gonna be by Election Day. But if you think it's gonna be $2.90/gallon then you have some massively profitable trades to make! Please let us know how it goes!
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@NateSilver538 you still can’t read an election. for the life of you. and what are u going to do when oil is $2.90 on election day?
Then why did it cost $2.90 before we invaded Iran but $4.50 now this is like arguing against a goldfish who hasn't acquired object permanence
@NateSilver538 the real reason is we stopped building refineries in 1977 for stupid left wing reasons and cancelled two pipelines.
OK Keith then why does gas cost $4.50 a gallon.
@NateSilver538 it was. over i. 3 days exactly as i articulated.
Always fun to periodically give a shoutout to people who thought the Iran war would be resolved within a few weeks.
@cjc It is over. Iran hasn’t been able to kill a single soldier since day 2 and every single military goal has been achieved, and every Diplomatic goal exceeded.
Move the Chargers back to San Diego. Or to Mexico City or something. They're kind of a liminal franchise at this point, the equivalent of an auxiliary airport terminal.
One political problem for AI labs is that they can't articulate an optimistic medium-term future that sounds broadly good for humanity without also sounding incredibly weird, having huge wealth/power disparities, or both.
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Part of the divide in opinions on AI capabilities is that it's only made modest progress on wordcel-type tasks and is still very mid. vs. having gotten much better at shape-rotator tasks. So if you're only using it for wordcel tasks, it's easier to say "what's the hype about?"
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I wrote about how the polling shows a supermajority for AI regulation, despite it very much not seeming that way on this platform.
I think the (non?)obvious subtext is that they don't have a lot of good arguments to make and are squarely on the wrong side of public opinion. This stuff is pretty weak, most people won't know/care what EA is and it will sound like they're speaking gibberish.
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Yeah, I think you're likely to see very large and relatively bipartisan majorities concerned about AI risk. People will have many different reasons for these concerns, some more well-grounded than others, but likely a fair amount of directional agreement.
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I guess I'd amend this. It's not so incomprehensible. Some folks on the left built personal brands around "AI is just hype." They have been fantastically wrong about this. They get wronger every day. To admit a need for serious regulation would require admitting they were wrong.
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I've been covering politics since 2008. The anti-AI-regulation takes from the left (by no means all/most of the left; Bernie disagrees!!!) might be the most literally incomprehensible political position I've ever encountered.
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I’m a broken record on this. But I think you should pay literally almost no attention to AI benchmarks that AIs and labs know in advance. To be clear, I'm very impressed by AI capabilities (to the point of being worried). But that's based on everyday use, not benchmarks.
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