RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research
@RenMacLLC
Serving professional money managers. Tweets are an exchange of ideas not investment advice. Life is short, if you're a jerk, you'll be unceremoniously blocked.
Joined September 2015
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"The hawks have a conviction right now that those inclined to wait may lack." Exactly this. It is not just about counting the dots, but weighting the dots based on the conviction of each participant.
On the July Fed meeting: "I can make a good case for either raising rates or not... They're just kind of stuck."
Cooler inflation took the urgency out of a July hike, before Iran reignited. The hawks have a conviction right now that those inclined to wait may lack. Warsh hasn't tipped his hand (as of last week, even to some of his own colleagues). Why next week's meeting is shaping up as one of the most uncertain in quite a while.
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