Forecasting Research Institute
@Research_FRI
We advance the science of forecasting to improve decision-making on high stakes issues. Co-founded by chief scientist Philip Tetlock.
Joined May 2023
26 Following 4K Followers
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At the time of forecasting (July 2026), Anthropic and OpenAI had a reported combined annualized revenue run rate of $72 billion.
Superforecasters gave the following predictions for OpenAI and Anthropic's annualized combined revenue run rate going forward:
2026: $90 billion
2030: $300 billion
2040: $770 billion
Since the survey closed, the reported combined annualized revenue run rate has surpassed $105 billion.
In the chart below, you can see the probability that the average superforecaster gave to OpenAI and Anthropic's combined revenue exceeding $400 billion or falling below $100 billion by the end of 2030.
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