💲 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝗮 𝟯𝟰% 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗿𝘂𝗻 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗔𝗜 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗔𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 $𝟰𝟬𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝟮𝟬𝟯𝟬 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻 𝟭𝟴% 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘁'𝘀 𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 $𝟭𝟬𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 At the time of forecasting (July 2026), Anthropic and OpenAI had a reported combined annualized revenue run rate of $72 billion. Superforecasters gave the following predictions for OpenAI and Anthropic's annualized combined revenue run rate going forward: 2026: $90 billion 2030: $300 billion 2040: $770 billion Since the survey closed, the reported combined annualized revenue run rate has surpassed $105 billion. In the chart below, you can see the probability that the average superforecaster gave to OpenAI and Anthropic's combined revenue exceeding $400 billion or falling below $100 billion by the end of 2030.

Will the AI boom continue, or is the industry headed toward a bust? In the latest wave of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), we asked AI experts and superforecasters to forecast the following: • The value of semiconductor and software stock indices • Data center investment in the US • Investment in IT equipment, and electrical and communication structures • The combined annualized revenue run rate of OpenAI and Anthropic 🧵 Read on for our key findings:

In his recent blog post, @slatestarcodex wrote that "the AI superforecasters are here." We run ForecastBench—a leading AI forecasting benchmark and the only one to compare AI forecasters to human superforecasters. So, how close are current AI systems to superforecasters? For the first time, several AI models are now statistically indistinguishable from superforecasters.