$MU doubling HBM capacity inside a year is the headline. What I went looking for is when the wafers behind all of this actually show up, because that is a different date. First, what is being added. The Korean piece behind this has Micron going from 40 to 50 thousand wafers a month last year to about 100 thousand by year end, and puts Samsung and SK Hynix at 150 to 200 thousand each, described as an industry estimate rather than a company figure. Call it 400 to 500 thousand wafers a month of HBM across the three of them by December. Now the part that sets the price. SK Hynix wrote the mechanism into its own M15X announcement: HBM "requires at least twice as large capabilities to secure the same production as general DRAM products." A separate industry estimate puts it at four times the capacity per gigabyte. Either number says the same thing. Until new fabs arrive, every HBM wafer is paid for out of the ordinary DRAM pool. That is not a side effect of the 2026 price move, it is the cause of it. And the bill is visible. Conventional DRAM contract prices rose 90 to 95 percent in Q1, 58 to 63 in Q2, 13 to 18 in Q3, all TrendForce's own survey numbers. Still rising, but the rate is down more than eighty percent in three quarters. Over the same stretch DRAM and NAND go from 47 percent of major cloud capex this year to 68 percent next year, and long-term agreements signed from Q2 onward already carry price ceilings. When your input is two thirds of the customer's budget, the customer stops negotiating price and starts funding your competitor. Then the dates. M15X this half. Yongin tools moving in February. Micron's ID1 in Boise mid-2027, which Micron's own site backs as DRAM output in 2027. TrendForce puts the supply inflection in the second half of 2027, at a 27 percent rise in combined server DRAM and HBM bits. After that it stacks: Samsung's P5 in 2028, Micron's ID2 late 2028, SK Hynix's newly approved 38 billion dollars of fabs with nothing before December 2028. So 2027 is the first partial year of greenfield wafers and 2028 is the first full one, with the second wave landing on top of it. Where I think that breaks first is not HBM. HBM is qualification-gated and locked into long-term agreements, and TrendForce still has its contract prices up 70 to 140 percent next year. Conventional DRAM has neither protection. It is the market that got starved to feed the stack, and it is the one that stops being starved the moment greenfield wafers arrive. The 2028 risk is being discussed as an HBM story. I think it lands in DDR5 first. What would change my mind is a fab slipping. These dates move, and Samsung's P5 has already moved two years earlier rather than later. $MU $SKHY $SNDK