$TSM TSMC booked NT$586.9bn in October, its biggest month ever by 14%. That's already running above the top of its own fourth-quarter guide, which works out to NT$576bn a month at TSMC's 31.8 exchange-rate assumption. Revenue rose 14.7% from September and 59.7% from a year ago. January to October is NT$4.49tn, up 43.3%. The quarter is guided at US$52.3–54.3bn, or NT$1.66–1.73tn at 31.8. October alone covers 34.6% of the midpoint. November and December only need to average NT$554bn to land in the middle, 5.6% below October. The top end needs about NT$570bn a month, 2.9% below October. October tends to be TSMC's strongest month of the fourth quarter, though. Last year it was 35.1% of the quarter, and revenue slipped 6.5% in November and another 2.5% in December. Run this year through that same path and the quarter lands around US$52.5bn, just above the low end. So October takes the low end off the table. Whether TSMC clears the top again, like its 2.0% beat in the third quarter, is a November question. On Oct. 15 we said we'd turn negative if October and November ran below the low end, about NT$554bn a month. October cleared that by 5.9%. Taipei had already closed when the filing hit at 1:45 p.m., with 2330 up 2.2% at NT$2,285 on the day. The first market read on this number is the ADR session. Other Taiwanese AI supply chain manufacturers will bring you updates later