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Schulz Duggan
@Schulz_Research
AI and chip news as it happens, explained simply. Research on optics and memory from Asia and US filings. Weekly industry explainers. Econ & finance background.
Joined January 2026
87 Following    3.3K Followers
$SIVE $AAOI $LITE $COHR WT Microelectronics did US$37.8bn of revenue last year selling chips and components to more than 25,000 customers, and today it added lasers. Sivers says it's WT's first laser line card. When a distributor that size opens a new category, it's betting a lot of different buyers will want the part, and for CW lasers that's a bigger signal than any single order. The deal is a global distribution agreement covering Sivers' InP lasers and its wireless beamformer chips. WT's marketing head named three markets for them: AI data center connectivity, satellite communications and next-generation wireless. Sivers' CEO says WT brings demand creation and the ability to handle fulfilment as production ramps. The customer count includes Future Electronics, which WT bought in 2024, so the network runs across Asia, the Americas and Europe. We think the timing has more to do with how much Sivers is about to be able to make than with how much it sells today. Q2 net sales were SEK 53.8m. Meanwhile it has WIN Semiconductors as its volume foundry for DFB lasers, added a second, unnamed foundry partner in August, and on Sept 3 committed $30m to expand its Glasgow fab to more than 100 million CW DFB lasers a year from Q4 2027. A company with Sivers' sales team can't put an engineer in front of every module maker that might use those lasers. WT already has the relationships. Where those buyers sit matters too. Silicon photonics modules at 800G and 1.6T use CW lasers as the light source, and a lot of that module assembly happens in Asia, which is WT's home market. Sivers was at CIOE in Shenzhen in September pitching 100mW lasers for exactly those modules. What the release doesn't give: a dollar figure, a minimum purchase, or any exclusivity. Distributors mostly reorder as parts sell through to their own customers, so this becomes steady revenue only once module makers buy in volume, and most of Sivers' AI laser volume carries 2027 dates. Sivers is targeting Jabil production orders in H1 2027 and the ramp in H2. WIN, according to Taiwanese media coverage of its Oct 28 call, expects CW lasers to bring pre-production revenue in 2027 and contribute in size in 2028. The nearest laser revenue is LiDAR, where Sivers announced production orders on Oct 20 with shipments starting this quarter. The market is still cautious. Even after today's jump of about 11%, the stock is close to half its Sept 24 close of SEK 32.78. Sivers reports Q3 on Nov 26. We'll be looking at product revenue against engineering services, operating cash flow against Q2's SEK -70.0m, whether the Jabil beta builds are still on for Q4, and whether management says anything about how WT orders will show up in the numbers. What would change our view: if Glasgow or the Jabil ramp slips past 2027, the channel would be ready before Sivers has the volume to put through it. The piece we can't see yet is how much of Sivers' 2027 laser output goes through WT and how much goes direct to a few large accounts. What are module makers hearing?
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