Intel just had its worst day in decades after guiding fourth-quarter revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion versus about $17 billion expected and non-GAAP EPS of $0.25. The stock is down roughly 30% to the mid-$60s. The market is focused on PC weakness. The underlying numbers are more mixed.
Third quarter was solid. Revenue was $16.5 billion, up 21% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.52. Data Center & AI revenue hit $7.3 billion, up 78%, the strongest growth in 15 years. Xeon demand is exceeding supply as AI and agentic workloads drive server CPU demand. Management sees the server CPU total addressable market potentially expanding significantly over the next five years.
The drag is clear. Client Computing fell 5% to $8.1 billion. Management expects the PC slowdown to continue through at least the first half of 2027, pressured by high memory prices, substrate shortages, and a roughly $300 million hit from an Israel plant incident. Foundry revenue rose 58% but is still losing money externally, even as process nodes including Intel 3 and 18A improve.
Morningstar cut its fair value to $85, suggesting the post-drop price is modestly undervalued, though uncertainty remains very high.
For long-term holders who believe the US needs to regain semiconductor leadership and that AI server demand is durable, the drop creates a zone to accumulate. Near-term volatility is high and PC plus foundry execution risks are real, so sizing matters. It is not a clean short-term trade.
A 30% drop is a price move. It is not a statement that the $7.3 billion Data Center print disappeared.
$INTC
If Xeon demand is already exceeding supply and Data Center revenue grew 78%, does the fourth-quarter guide mainly reflect the PC and foundry drag, or does it also limit how fast the server CPU strength can show up in the next two quarters?