China strategist. Author of bi-weekly China Macro Watch. Mission: bridge the information gap between the East and the West.
Contact: shanghaimacro@gmail.com
Exactly.
When Barry Eichengreen—the leading authority on the international monetary system and reserve currencies—raises concerns this serious about the US dollar's reserve status, we should pay close attention.
The dollar's reserve status rests on a simple but fundamental assumption: foreign central banks are free to deploy their reserves as they see fit, especially by selling US Treasuries when circumstances require.
If that assumption no longer holds because reserve managers fear political pressure from Washington, then the rationale for holding large dollar reserves inevitably begins to erode.
Yes, the BOJ can access the Fed's FIMA Repo Facility. But what about those central banks that cannot? More importantly, should reserve managers have to rely on the goodwill of the issuer simply to access the liquidity of their own reserve assets?
The US government's apparent anxiety over foreign central banks selling Treasuries may itself pose one of the greatest question marks on the dollar's reserve status.
If UST reserves cannot be sold in a crisis without making said crisis worse by threatening a debt spiral, then UST’s are no longer fit for purpose as FX reserves.
In contrast, earlier this year, gold reserves were sold easily & quickly & de-escalated the crisis.
Let’s watch.