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Luke Gromen
@LukeGromen
Founder & President, Forest for the Trees (FFTT). Author of "The Mr. X Interviews, Volumes I & II.” I never solicit via DM's. RT not endorsements.
2.5K Following    636.7K Followers
China into the WTO drove disinflation for 20 years. The US is now trying to economically divorce China, reshore its withered industrial base, as US foreign policy is constricting a critical global commodity chokepoint, all into 7% of GDP deficits. Why would inflation come down?
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Inflation > expectations didn't take long to play out. But if you missed out on this hot print, don't worry, there are going to be more hot prints coming soon👇
Hugely interesting development this week. Snippet from this week FFTT by @LukeGromen
China can make the US military and AI cheaper than the US can. Should we outsource all of it to China then?
Now imagine it had been made in America, and cost more. He would have paid the money to an American worker...who would also have spent them somewhere else in America....who would have spent them somewhere else in America...etc., etc. Henry Ford model of economics.
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I just bought a $1999 refrigerator. It would have been about $1649 if not for the federal tariffs tax which I (not “South Korea”) paid. I also paid $155 in sales tax. Total cost $2154. Of which 25% is tariff tax and sales tax. To pay for it, I had to earn $3,420 in gross salary, of which $1266 went to fed and state taxes. So for $3,420 in labor I got a refrigerator worth $1,649 (48%). 52% went to the government in taxes.
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America’s defense industrial base has a metal parts problem. Since the 1980s, the U.S. has lost roughly 1,600 foundries (~50% of the domestic base) and 4,400 metal casting facilities (~75% of the base). Critical cast and forged alloys now face 70–80 week lead times. The 155mm artillery production effort shows what this erosion looks like in practice. The Army has invested $4.5B since 2022 with the goal of producing 100,000 rounds per month. As of March 2026, output was 36,000 rounds per month. Much of the constraint sits upstream in qualified projectile metal parts production. A ~$500M Texas facility designed to produce 30,000 parts per month had yet to produce a single contract-compliant part as of March 2026. That same supply chain weakness affects missile production, propulsion, drones, shipbuilding, and other critical systems. These programs depend on the ability to produce complex metal components at speed and scale. Rebuilding the industrial base requires more than new factories. It requires qualified domestic capacity to cast, forge, machine, inspect, and produce complex metal parts – plus flexible manufacturing capacity that can shift across programs as demand changes. This is the defense industrial base challenge.
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So...basically "Jack Ma, with US characteristics"? Via OC
Taiwanese semiconductor analyst Andrew Lu’s take on the recent scandal involving Jensen Huang: Why the US Seized on the Scandal to Draw Its Sword: Three Strategic Objectives The purpose of this scandal is by no means to expose an affair. It is to force through three critical objectives that had made no headway in the tech war between the US and China because Jensen Huang opposed them. The first cut: Completely destroy the legitimacy of Jensen Huang's lobbying against sanctions in Washington Over the past two years, the loudest and most influential business leader in Silicon Valley opposing a total ban on chip exports to China has been Jensen Huang. He has told the White House the same thing all along: "Cede the Chinese market to Huawei, and the only one that ends up dead is the American tech industry." But the moment US intelligence labels the woman named as Huang's affair partner "a spy working for China's Ministry of State Security who sought to steer the US toward easing its chip controls," every bit of lobbying he has done for looser controls takes on an entirely different political meaning. It becomes a national security matter, raising the possibility that a foreign spy used a secret relationship to exert influence. Huang can no longer say a single word in defense of the Chinese market before Congress or the White House. If he does, he will be branded as someone who "fell for an intelligence operation and still hasn't come to his senses." The second cut: Reverse the H200 export approvals for China and sever the link between Chinese shell companies and Southeast Asian smuggling networks Look at the timing of the two reports. On November 8, the very day the Jensen Huang scandal broke, The New York Times published an investigation for which its reporters went in person to dozens of Chinese companies that the US Commerce Department had approved to handle Nvidia's H200 chips. New Matrix in Beijing was one of them. According to the report, the registered addresses of companies approved to buy the chips turned out to be empty "ghost offices," and some of the companies had close ties to entities on US sanctions lists and to firms under contract with the Chinese military. One exposé says Nvidia's CEO was having an affair with a female spy from Megaspeed, the Singapore company that handled the chip smuggling. The other says the Chinese companies Commerce approved to buy H200s are nothing but shell companies trading on behalf of the Chinese military. The aim of these two reports is clear. They are meant to pressure the Trump administration and the Commerce Department into fully revoking or freezing H200 export approvals for China and, going further, to force a sweeping overhaul of the loophole that let chips be diverted through data centers run by third parties in Singapore and elsewhere in Southeast Asia. The third cut: Put Nvidia on a national security leash through congressional oversight and an independent investigation As the world's largest company by market cap and the dominant force in AI, Nvidia has until now enjoyed broad autonomy in how it runs its business. But in the wake of this incident, the three congressional committees responsible for China, foreign affairs, and intelligence have begun examining Nvidia's internal security measures directly. They have even pressured Nvidia's board into forming an independent investigation committee to look into the company's own founder and CEO. In effect, Washington's national security establishment has planted a watchdog right inside Nvidia's board. From now on, the goal is to make sure that everything, down to where each and every one of Nvidia's high performance chips ends up, conforms strictly to US national security strategy. It also means there is no more room for skirting the edge of the rules or releasing chips with specs specially tailored to regulatory thresholds. Conclusion "The scandal was a detonator set off right on cue. The real goal was to plug the holes chips were leaking through." Jensen Huang made the fatal mistake of letting his guard down in his private life and personal relationships. In the end, he fell into a honey trap, the textbook tactic of intelligence warfare, and was compromised. America's national security and intelligence agencies ruthlessly exploited the weakness his private life had exposed. As a result, they solved three thorny problems in a single stroke: Nvidia's lobbying at the White House to ease restrictions on China, the flow of H200 chips into Chinese shell companies, and smuggling routed through Singapore. The closed congressional hearing set for November 18 will be the decisive turning point at which the US moves in earnest to tighten its sanctions on China's AI compute even further.
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Taiwanese semiconductor analyst Andrew Lu’s take on the recent scandal involving Jensen Huang: Why the US Seized on the Scandal to Draw Its Sword: Three Strategic Objectives The purpose of this scandal is by no means to expose an affair. It is to force through three critical objectives that had made no headway in the tech war between the US and China because Jensen Huang opposed them. The first cut: Completely destroy the legitimacy of Jensen Huang's lobbying against sanctions in Washington Over the past two years, the loudest and most influential business leader in Silicon Valley opposing a total ban on chip exports to China has been Jensen Huang. He has told the White House the same thing all along: "Cede the Chinese market to Huawei, and the only one that ends up dead is the American tech industry." But the moment US intelligence labels the woman named as Huang's affair partner "a spy working for China's Ministry of State Security who sought to steer the US toward easing its chip controls," every bit of lobbying he has done for looser controls takes on an entirely different political meaning. It becomes a national security matter, raising the possibility that a foreign spy used a secret relationship to exert influence. Huang can no longer say a single word in defense of the Chinese market before Congress or the White House. If he does, he will be branded as someone who "fell for an intelligence operation and still hasn't come to his senses." The second cut: Reverse the H200 export approvals for China and sever the link between Chinese shell companies and Southeast Asian smuggling networks Look at the timing of the two reports. On November 8, the very day the Jensen Huang scandal broke, The New York Times published an investigation for which its reporters went in person to dozens of Chinese companies that the US Commerce Department had approved to handle Nvidia's H200 chips. New Matrix in Beijing was one of them. According to the report, the registered addresses of companies approved to buy the chips turned out to be empty "ghost offices," and some of the companies had close ties to entities on US sanctions lists and to firms under contract with the Chinese military. One exposé says Nvidia's CEO was having an affair with a female spy from Megaspeed, the Singapore company that handled the chip smuggling. The other says the Chinese companies Commerce approved to buy H200s are nothing but shell companies trading on behalf of the Chinese military. The aim of these two reports is clear. They are meant to pressure the Trump administration and the Commerce Department into fully revoking or freezing H200 export approvals for China and, going further, to force a sweeping overhaul of the loophole that let chips be diverted through data centers run by third parties in Singapore and elsewhere in Southeast Asia. The third cut: Put Nvidia on a national security leash through congressional oversight and an independent investigation As the world's largest company by market cap and the dominant force in AI, Nvidia has until now enjoyed broad autonomy in how it runs its business. But in the wake of this incident, the three congressional committees responsible for China, foreign affairs, and intelligence have begun examining Nvidia's internal security measures directly. They have even pressured Nvidia's board into forming an independent investigation committee to look into the company's own founder and CEO. In effect, Washington's national security establishment has planted a watchdog right inside Nvidia's board. From now on, the goal is to make sure that everything, down to where each and every one of Nvidia's high performance chips ends up, conforms strictly to US national security strategy. It also means there is no more room for skirting the edge of the rules or releasing chips with specs specially tailored to regulatory thresholds. Conclusion "The scandal was a detonator set off right on cue. The real goal was to plug the holes chips were leaking through." Jensen Huang made the fatal mistake of letting his guard down in his private life and personal relationships. In the end, he fell into a honey trap, the textbook tactic of intelligence warfare, and was compromised. America's national security and intelligence agencies ruthlessly exploited the weakness his private life had exposed. As a result, they solved three thorny problems in a single stroke: Nvidia's lobbying at the White House to ease restrictions on China, the flow of H200 chips into Chinese shell companies, and smuggling routed through Singapore. The closed congressional hearing set for November 18 will be the decisive turning point at which the US moves in earnest to tighten its sanctions on China's AI compute even further.
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In 2002, China said it had “a 20-year window of strategic opportunity while the US was distracted by war in the Mideast [looking for WMD’s.]” Fast forward 24 years, & this 👇 happened while the US was… <wait for it>… distracted by war in the Mideast [looking for WMD’s.] 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️
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It’s not that the CEO of the worlds most important company was having an affair, but that he was having one with a CCP agent at the same time he was advancing the US government AI policy, which effectively was beat China at all costs. Just surreal.
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Cleveland Clinic now asks patients' permission to have their appointments be recorded so that the interactions can be fed into AI. I can only assume this will eventually reduce future headcount in healthcare. And healthcare is the biggest employer in 38 of 50 US states.
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@LukeGromen @ericwallerstein Not just fly over country. And every country’s white collar workers fear replacement. I am seeing it in medicine wherever practiced algorithmically. Pathology and Radiology are naturally starting points for AI to train itself. The VA is already offering AI to patients.
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I wouldn't say China switched to "gold is power" from "production is power." It's more subtle than that, as China tends to be. China uses gold to allow CNY to buy marginal ton of commodities to avoid a CNY currency crisis. US & much of world uses USD to buy marginal ton This sets up an arb b/t USD & CNY thru commodities and b/c gold is how China is doing this, it means China is using western manipulation of gold (via unallocated paper in London) to get cheaper commodities in CNY than the west. This forces the US & west to either let gold rise (end USD reserve status as structured post-1971) or let China continue to get cheaper commodities than everyone else in the world (thru gold.) Symptoms of this: 1) Top chart below = gold/USD & gold/commodity ratios rises over time (gold was $1200 & Gold/commodity ratio was 4x when China & Russia reopened the gold window in September 2014 (SGEI + CNY oil)) 2) Bottom chart below = China gets secular deflation & lower yields while US gets inflation & higher yields - which when both US & China are overlevered, means either US does YCC (& takes the hit to the USD) or... 3) US tries to use chokepoints as @TheMichaelEvery correctly said would happen...the problem is that the longer they run without choking out China, the more they blowback on the US (see Tuesday's midterms), & the more the world learns the US cannot fight a war without China & sells bonds & buys gold & commodities, supporting the Chinese side of the above (this is now understood, & is happening.)
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Hugely interesting development this week. Snippet from this week FFTT by @LukeGromen
I wouldn't say China switched to "gold is power" from "production is power." It's more subtle than that, as China tends to be. China uses gold to allow CNY to buy marginal ton of commodities to avoid a CNY currency crisis. US & much of world uses USD to buy marginal ton This sets up an arb b/t USD & CNY thru commodities and b/c gold is how China is doing this, it means China is using western manipulation of gold (via unallocated paper in London) to get cheaper commodities in CNY than the west. This forces the US & west to either let gold rise (end USD reserve status as structured post-1971) or let China continue to get cheaper commodities than everyone else in the world (thru gold.) Symptoms of this: 1) Top chart below = gold/USD & gold/commodity ratios rises over time (gold was $1200 & Gold/commodity ratio was 4x when China & Russia reopened the gold window in September 2014 (SGEI + CNY oil)) 2) Bottom chart below = China gets secular deflation & lower yields while US gets inflation & higher yields - which when both US & China are overlevered, means either US does YCC (& takes the hit to the USD) or... 3) US tries to use chokepoints as @TheMichaelEvery correctly said would happen...the problem is that the longer they run without choking out China, the more they blowback on the US (see Tuesday's midterms), & the more the world learns the US cannot fight a war without China & sells bonds & buys gold & commodities, supporting the Chinese side of the above (this is now understood, & is happening.)
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Thank you for being a Tree Rings subscriber, @RussSamuels! We appreciate you.
Have said before but will say again. .@LukeGromen's weekly newsletter has so much signal.
Top chart: Foreign-held US Federal debt, 1990-today. Bottom chart: Total Federal debt (blue) v. foreign-held US Federal debt, 1990-today.
🔶If China succeeds in using physical gold as global collateral (incl. REPO) tracked by tokenized blockchain for limited rehypothecation, the process has two phases, accelerated by China’s need to revalue its domestic debt against gold. ⭕️Revalue to equilibrium phase: Existing above-ground gold must first reprice higher so the stock provides enough collateral value relative to financing needs and to clear paper overhangs. China’s large yuan-denominated debt (local governments, SOEs, property) creates a direct incentive to let the yuan gold price rise. This devalues that debt in real terms while increasing the collateral value of the ounces it already holds (official + estimated non-reported). Michael Howell has linked Chinese demand to this internal devaluation dynamic. HK infrastructure (central clearing system, tokenized-deposit DvP targeting commercial 2027, interbank 400-oz bar tokens under Project Ensemble, SGE vault) gives Beijing the mechanism to support a higher equilibrium price without waiting for Western HQLA reclassification. ⭕️Pricing up via usage as collateral phase: Once gold is revalued and functions as verifiable, limited-rehypothecation collateral on a shared ledger, structural demand takes over. Banks, trade-finance desks and collateral managers hold more of it for REPO, margin and liquidity. This demand is additive to jewelry, investment and official buying. Mine supply is inelastic, so the result is a slower but persistent grind higher in USD terms after the initial reprice. 🎯China’s debt revaluation motive compresses the first phase. Ongoing collateral usage then sustains the second. Both phases are now supported by concrete HK moves rather than pure theory. #Gold# #Silver#
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When a democratic nation where every person gets a vote follows a policy of "socialism for the rich but capitalism for the poor", the voters eventually vote themselves the same safety net that their elites got.
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@LukeGromen A bailout for everyone is not a safety net, it is a pause button on adapting. The better deal is the one Blankfein points to. Build the capacity, raise productivity, and let work pay more, not promises to pay debts.
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Why this is relevant IMO: If AI works, creates a consumer credit crisis, good for gold If AI blows up, creates a broader debt and economic crisis, good for gold
NDX and gold have performed equally in the four years since ChatGPT launched.
NDX and gold have performed equally in the four years since ChatGPT launched.
Surprised at the reaction to this post. Here is the thought that generated it: 1. I logged onto Coinbase recently to buy more BTC, & was struck that unlike when i first bought BTC on Coinbase in 2013, Coinbase now offers all sorts of BTC derivatives, offering varying degrees of leverage, all cash-settled (not BTC-settled). 2. BTC peak-to-peak CAGR returns have collapsed in the 2 cycles since cash-settled** BTC derivatives began trading (**"cash-settled" is key, because it means the owner of the biggest printing press increasingly sets marginal prices over time, NOT physical supply & demand. In most cases, the owner of the biggest printing press is the very fiat system BTC was designed to escape from) 👇 As a BTC holder since 2013 (and still), this collapse in peak-to-peak CAGR of BTC troubles me greatly. I would be happy to have anyone explain why peak-to-peak returns have collapsed in the past 8 years & why they think this trend will stop despite the seeming continued expansion of cash-settled BTC derivatives and cash-settled betting markets on BTC. Thank you. 🙏❤️
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@dotkrueger IMO more Bitcoiners should spend more time on understanding that if "digital credit" is developed it will ensure BTC never goes to $1m That may even be the point of "digital credit." But Bitcoiners would be well-served to study "credit gold" that began in London in mid-80s
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Chart of 10y bond yields of US, UK, Japan, Germany, France...with China (aqua) shown for context. Proof that "capital flight into gold" (as China detractors call it) contains sovereign LT bond yields. Probably something Sec. Bessent should talk about with Dr. Judy Shelton. @SecScottBessent @judyshel
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