🇸🇦🇮🇷🇴🇲 UPDATE: A useful correction and an even more interesting question. Saudi crude moving through Hormuz is NOT new. 🇸🇦 Saudi VLCCs have been moving through the Strait for months, including three carrying around 6 million barrels immediately after the US Iran agreement in June. 🇺🇸 The US military has also been helping Gulf oil move through the region, including ship to ship operations around Sohar and Fujairah. So this architecture predates the attack on Saudi Arabia’s East West pipeline. What changed after the pipeline went offline is the SCALE. 🇸🇦 Aramco has dramatically increased Gulf exports. Around 60 million barrels have reportedly been sold from Ras Tanura for September and October with ship to ship transfers planned off Sohar. On Sunday alone around 14 million barrels were loaded onto seven VLCCs. 🇴🇲 Oman is therefore becoming increasingly important. But I have seen claims that Saudi Arabia struck a new deal directly with Iran after the pipeline attack allowing these shipments through Hormuz, with Exxon taking a cut. I cannot find credible evidence supporting either claim yet. In fact, two VLCCs carrying Saudi crude were attacked while transiting the Omani corridor earlier this month. So I’m separating what we KNOW from what we suspect. We know Saudi crude has been moving through Hormuz for months. We know there has been US involvement in keeping Gulf oil moving. We know Oman is an increasingly important transshipment node. We know Iran, Oman, the US and others have been negotiating navigation arrangements around Hormuz. And we know Saudi Arabia dramatically increased Gulf exports after losing its East West pipeline route. What we DON’T yet know is whether Saudi Arabia has subsequently reached a direct or mediated agreement with Iran guaranteeing these increased flows. That is the missing piece I’m looking for. If somebody has primary evidence of the claimed Saudi Iran agreement or Exxon’s role, please send it to me. Because if it exists, it materially changes the story. Until then: Follow the oil. Follow the ships. Follow the agreements.

🇸🇦🇮🇷 SOMETHING VERY INTERESTING IS HAPPENING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ Reuters reports Saudi Aramco loaded around 14 MILLION barrels of crude onto seven VLCCs at Gulf terminals on Sunday. Satellite images reportedly show seven tankers around Ras Tanura. Why is this interesting? 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia’s East West pipeline was attacked and shut down. That pipeline exists specifically to allow Saudi crude to bypass Hormuz and reach the Red Sea. So what happened next? Saudi dramatically increased crude exports THROUGH Hormuz. And Reuters reports Aramco has sold around 60 million barrels from Ras Tanura for September and October with cargoes intended for ship to ship transfers at Sohar. 🇴🇲 Oman. So the emerging route looks like: 🇸🇦 Ras Tanura Strait of Hormuz 🇴🇲 Sohar 🇨🇳🇰🇷🇮🇳🇯🇵 Asian buyers Now it gets interesting. 🇮🇷 Iran has been restricting shipping through Hormuz. 🇮🇷🇴🇲 Iran and Oman have simultaneously been negotiating a temporary navigation corridor, mine clearance, information sharing, traffic management and eventually a longer term framework for the Strait. And now millions of barrels of Saudi crude are moving through Hormuz towards Oman. I have NOT found evidence yet that Iran gave Saudi Arabia permission or that these tankers are part of an Iran Saudi agreement. That distinction matters. But the question now becomes unavoidable. If Iran controls the threat environment around Hormuz, Oman is negotiating the navigation architecture and Saudi is dramatically increasing crude movements through the Strait, exactly how are these tankers being deconflicted? Who is guaranteeing passage? 🇮🇷 Iran? 🇴🇲 Oman? 🇺🇸 The US? Or some combination negotiated behind the scenes? This is what I’m watching. Because if evidence emerges that Iran is knowingly facilitating Saudi crude passage while Oman acts as the intermediary and transshipment node, that would be much more significant than seven tankers. It would be another piece of the regional architecture I believe is emerging as the Forever War winds down. Don’t follow the rhetoric. Follow the oil. Let’s see.

This is what it looks like when FIC negotiates regional stability while MIC extracts what it can as the forever war winds down But the devil is in the detail PACT is only a proposal No money appears to have been committed and no shareholders governance rights or investment terms have been disclosed The US Development Finance Corporation is not privately owned It is a US government agency controlled by a board containing the secretaries of State Treasury and Commerce its presidentially appointed CEO and private sector directors Here is what I will be watching if it materialises. Is the US contribution funded through congressional appropriations Treasury borrowing DFC equity loans or guarantees? Do the eight regional partners receive ownership and voting rights proportional to their contributions? Who controls the investment committee and selects the projects? Who absorbs the first losses if Iran destroys the infrastructure again? Who owns the pipelines refineries and project companies after reconstruction? Are contracts tied to US engineering energy security and technology companies? Does DFC use public money to bring in FIC infrastructure funds banks insurers and private credit? These details determine what PACT actually is If the Gulf supplies half the capital while Washington controls allocation US companies receive the contracts and private capital captures the assets then this is not simply reconstruction It is Gulf and US public money de-risking a US-controlled FIC investment platform If the regional contributors receive proportional governance local ownership and the economic returns then it is closer to genuine sovereign co-investment War has two revenue cycles MIC profits from destroying and securing the infrastructure FIC profits from financing insuring and owning what replaces it The announcement is the headline The capital structure will tell us who really benefited and who really won the war I will keep following the money if PACT materialises If the previously reported $300bn Iran reconstruction proposal eventually materialises too, despite the public denials that will tell us even more about the truth behind the theatre and propaganda.

For accuracy. Trump does not “give Israel bombs” The US government runs deficits and takes on debt Part of that money is appropriated as so called “military aid” to Israel Israel then spends much of that aid with US MIC companies The money leaves the US Treasury passes through Israel and returns to Lockheed Martin Boeing RTX and other contractors as revenue FIC finances the government debt provides capital to the MIC and capitalises those military revenues into higher corporate valuations That is not charity It is a circular public subsidy for private MIC profits The model is also beginning to change The current aid agreement expires in 2028 and the official negotiations propose gradually moving from aid towards joint investment co-production and a more reciprocal commercial relationship That would turn Israel from a subsidised customer into a paying customer Unless Israel funds those purchases through higher taxes spending cuts or defence exports more of the cost moves onto the Israeli national balance sheet and potentially into Israeli debt At the same time IAI is being prepared for an IPO while Rafael and Tomer are pushing in the same direction Those listings are not complete and Rafael and Tomer do not yet have government approval But the direction is clear US subsidy becomes Israeli expenditure Israeli expenditure becomes US MIC revenue Israeli military assets become securities governed by capital market disclosure investor returns and FIC discipline This is the privatisation of Israel The state assumes more of the cost while private capital gains greater access to the assets revenues and infrastructure created by the Israeli security state The bombs do not disprove negotiations If the regional architecture is changing MIC has every incentive to lock in as much revenue as possible before the subsidy model changes FIC finances it Israel assumes more of the liability MIC captures the revenue Israeli state assets move towards the market And please do not confuse follow the money analysis with advocacy Israel continues to commit crimes against humanity while giving weapons manufacturers plausible deniability for how their products are used Explaining the financial structure does not excuse the crimes It identifies who finances them who profits from them and who is left holding the liabilities Keep following the money And yes, it’s blood money.

🇺🇸 WHERE THE US MIC GOES NEXT? For decades the US MIC monetised the Forever War abroad. When the Middle East moves towards a regional security architecture & global south regional alliances follow, where does an enormous security industry find its next growth market? Look home. 🇺🇸 Record military and homeland security budgets. Drones and military infrastructure moving into Washington. Stargate building enormous AI and data centre capacity. The GENIUS Act bringing stablecoins deeper into the regulated dollar system with KYC, AML, sanctions enforcement and freeze capabilities. Put the architecture together. Drones provide the eyes. AI provides the intelligence. Data centres provide the compute. Digital identity connects activity to individuals. Stablecoins provide increasingly programmable and enforceable money. MIC provides the security infrastructure. TIC provides the technology and data. FIC finances it and connects the monetary rails. 🇬🇧 The UK is the beta test. CCTV. Digital identity. Online regulation. Financial surveillance. Increasingly digital payments. TIC has the capital, technology and security industry to take that architecture much further. As the Forever War model abroad shrinks, the domestic police, surveillance and counterterrorism market can expand. Once the architecture exists, every genuine domestic terrorist attack creates the political justification to expand it further.

🌮 Theatre whilst everyone heads to New York for the UN General Assembly. 🇺🇸 Trump pulls back from immediate US action against the Houthis whilst remaining in “deciding mode” on Iran. 🇮🇷 President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi are heading to New York for UN High-Level Week. 🇮🇷🇶🇦 Araghchi is travelling via Qatar carrying Iran’s conditions for peace, including ending the war and releasing Iranian assets. 🇸🇦🇦🇪🇶🇦🇧🇭🇰🇼🇴🇲 Trump is due to meet the six Gulf leaders on the sidelines before deciding his next move on Iran. 🇺🇸🇾🇪 This follows US contact with the Houthis, who say they have assured Washington they will not target US & Israeli vessels in the Red Sea. Watch the theatre. Washington pulls back from immediate escalation. Everyone heads to New York. The regional players negotiate. Social media says it’s World War 3. In my opinion it’s definitely not. The negotiations never stopped.

🌮 Theatre whilst everyone heads to New York for the UN General Assembly. 🇺🇸 Trump pulls back from immediate US action against the Houthis whilst remaining in “deciding mode” on Iran. 🇮🇷 President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi are heading to New York for UN High-Level Week. 🇮🇷🇶🇦 Araghchi is travelling via Qatar carrying Iran’s conditions for peace, including ending the war and releasing Iranian assets. 🇸🇦🇦🇪🇶🇦🇧🇭🇰🇼🇴🇲 Trump is due to meet the six Gulf leaders on the sidelines before deciding his next move on Iran. 🇺🇸🇾🇪 This follows US contact with the Houthis, who say they have assured Washington they will not target US & Israeli vessels in the Red Sea. Watch the theatre. Washington pulls back from immediate escalation. Everyone heads to New York. The regional players negotiate. Social media says it’s World War 3. In my opinion it’s definitely not. The negotiations never stopped.

🇺🇸 WHERE THE US MIC GOES NEXT? For decades the US MIC monetised the Forever War abroad. When the Middle East moves towards a regional security architecture & global south regional alliances follow, where does an enormous security industry find its next growth market? Look home. 🇺🇸 Record military and homeland security budgets. Drones and military infrastructure moving into Washington. Stargate building enormous AI and data centre capacity. The GENIUS Act bringing stablecoins deeper into the regulated dollar system with KYC, AML, sanctions enforcement and freeze capabilities. Put the architecture together. Drones provide the eyes. AI provides the intelligence. Data centres provide the compute. Digital identity connects activity to individuals. Stablecoins provide increasingly programmable and enforceable money. MIC provides the security infrastructure. TIC provides the technology and data. FIC finances it and connects the monetary rails. 🇬🇧 The UK is the beta test. CCTV. Digital identity. Online regulation. Financial surveillance. Increasingly digital payments. TIC has the capital, technology and security industry to take that architecture much further. As the Forever War model abroad shrinks, the domestic police, surveillance and counterterrorism market can expand. Once the architecture exists, every genuine domestic terrorist attack creates the political justification to expand it further.

🇺🇸🇸🇦🇮🇱 The US has approved a possible $24.3bn sale of 48 F35s to Saudi Arabia Israel wanted the sale conditioned on Saudi normalisation Washington is moving it forward without that condition Saudi state capital pays Lockheed Martin and Pratt and Whitney capture the revenue Saudi Arabia gains advanced capabilities while becoming more dependent on the US MIC for software training maintenance and upgrades Israel is the party losing leverage Its exclusive position is diluted Normalisation is no longer the price of Saudi access Its qualitative military edge remains protected but it can no longer dictate the entire regional architecture Now add the Houthis US officials reportedly negotiated separately with them in Oman The Houthis reportedly offered protection to American Israeli and other commercial shipping while excluding Saudi vessels then claimed attacks on Riyadh and Aramco facilities On the surface this looks like Saudi Houthi confrontation But it could also fit a wider transition Houthi pressure gives Saudi Arabia the justification to acquire American weapons while reinforcing Riyadh’s argument that US protection is unreliable and alternatives are necessary That allows Saudi Arabia to buy capabilities from the US MIC today while hedging through China Pakistan Turkey domestic production regional diplomacy and eventually a settlement with the Houthis This does not prove Saudi Houthi coordination But their actions may be serving different parts of the same regional outcome Saudi Arabia builds military autonomy The Houthis pressure US power out of the region Washington transfers more capability to Riyadh Israel loses its exclusive role as America’s indispensable regional MIC and TIC node The apparent conflict may be concealing a more unified direction of travel A regional security structure that is less dependent on Israel and eventually less dependent on permanent US The F35 sale is not final But if it survives Israeli pressure without being conditioned on normalisation it is another sign that Israel is not taking control of the regional architecture It is losing its privileged position inside it Keep following the money

🇸🇦 THE “SAUDI ARABIA QUITS mBRIDGE” STORY NEEDS CONTEXT The headline makes it sound like Saudi Arabia has suddenly abandoned the alternative payment architecture developing around China. That’s not what happened. 🇸🇦 SAMA says it completed its planned mBridge proof of concept on 13 May 2025 and then ceased being a formal participant. That happened more than a year ago. What’s new is the disclosure. 🇨🇭 The BIS had already “graduated out” of mBridge in October 2024 after the project reached Minimum Viable Product stage and transferred it to the participating central banks. The BIS says its incubation role was complete. 🇺🇸 The FT separately reported US pressure over concerns mBridge could weaken dollar and SWIFT sanctions leverage. Both accounts should be distinguished. But mBridge continued developing without the BIS and Saudi leaving mBridge did NOT mean Saudi returned to a dollar only architecture. 🇸🇦🇨🇳 Saudi still has a RMB50bn swap agreement with the PBoC, Chinese banking relationships and access to expanding RMB settlement infrastructure. 🇸🇦 It is simultaneously integrating GCC payment infrastructure. This isn’t simply the petrodollar being replaced by the petroyuan. It isn’t SWIFT being replaced by mBridge either. It increasingly looks like one dominant global financial network becoming multiple interoperable nodes. Now look at Iran. 🇺🇸🇦🇪🇪🇬 The US is targeting the UAE branches of Egypt’s state owned Banque Misr over alleged Iranian shadow banking activity. 🇹🇷🇮🇷 Turkey has revoked the licence of Iran’s Bank Mellat branch. 🇴🇲🇮🇷 But Oman is interesting. The Central Bank of Oman still lists Bank Melli Iran and Bank Saderat Iran as licensed banks. 🇴🇲🇮🇷 At the same time, Oman and Iran are negotiating arrangements around navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. So I’m watching whether Iran’s financial rails are being compressed rather than completely isolated. 🇨🇳 China remains the enormous external economic node. 🇴🇲 Oman remains an important Gulf banking and diplomatic bridge. Other Iranian routes remain, so there isn’t enough evidence to say Iranian trade is being deliberately funnelled exclusively through China and Oman. But if other Iranian financial nodes keep getting squeezed while Oman remains intact, that becomes increasingly significant, especially alongside the Hormuz negotiations. This fits the framework I’ve been discussing. 🇺🇸 The Western node can become more digitally dollarised through stablecoins, tokenised Treasuries and programmable dollar infrastructure. 🇨🇳 The Chinese node can expand RMB settlement through CIPS, swap lines and alternative payment infrastructure. Regional nodes can increasingly settle directly. CBDC infrastructure can connect central bank money without requiring some imaginary single BRICS currency. 🇸🇦 Saudi can therefore remain dollar pegged, issue dollar debt, own US assets. 🇸🇦🇨🇳 At the same time it can maintain RMB liquidity, Chinese banking relationships, GCC payment integration and the knowledge gained through mBridge. That isn’t necessarily Saudi choosing China over America. It is Saudi building optionality between nodes. And this is why “petrodollar vs petroyuan” misses the bigger change. 🇨🇳 CIPS volumes are growing rapidly, but CIPS volume does NOT equal oil settled in yuan. There isn’t sufficient evidence to claim the petroyuan has replaced the petrodollar. What may be eroding is something subtler. The dollar’s exclusivity as the settlement rail. 🇺🇸 The dollar can remain dominant while alternative rails grow underneath it. 🇨🇳 RMB settlement can grow without the RMB becoming the global reserve currency. 🇮🇷 Iran can increasingly use Chinese and regional rails without a BRICS currency. mBridge can continue without the BIS or Saudi Arabia formally participating.

🇻🇪 FOLLOW THE MONEY - VENEZUELA, HOUTHIS, SAUDI ARABIA & MULTIPOLARITY The deeper you go into Venezuela, the more interesting the capital structure becomes At the centre is Alejandro Betancourt and his family-controlled NABEP NABEP gets 17 Venezuelan oil fields containing approximately 65bn barrels of stated proven reserves The US government gets a protected 35% economic interest, the right to buy 20% of production at cost and first refusal on the remaining 80% The Betancourt family retains private control Now add the other nodes 🇨🇳 CHINA Several fields moving into NABEP were previously operated by Chinese companies China is defending existing creditor & commercial rights 🇷🇺 RUSSIA Russian state-owned Roszarubezhneft reportedly retains 40% of Petromonagas while Exxon negotiates around the same project 🇺🇸 CHEVRON Chevron never left Venezuela, but its position has just expanded dramatically, with $7bn+ investment planned targeting approximately 600k barrels/day Now follow the oil 🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA Saudi Aramco owns Motiva in Texas, home to America’s largest refinery Aramco Trading Americas has already bought Venezuelan heavy crude from Chevron for Motiva Venezuela, Chevron, Saudi state-owned refining capacity in Texas Now add Yemen 🇾🇪 THE HOUTHIS US officials just met Houthi representatives in Oman Reuters reports the Houthis reaffirmed their ceasefire with Washington and said they would not attack US or Israeli ships or other commercial vessels, except Saudi-owned vessels The Houthis have also publicly said Red Sea navigation is safe for everyone except Saudi vessels So right now they are allowing Israeli shipping through while targeting Saudi shipping and claiming attacks against Aramco infrastructure around Yanbu Yanbu is the Red Sea outlet of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, increasingly important when Hormuz is constrained At the same time Saudi Aramco owns America’s largest refinery and is already buying Venezuelan crude through Chevron 🇮🇱 ISRAEL-ALIGNED PRIVATE CAPITAL CITGO owns three major US refineries capable of processing Venezuelan heavy crude Its court-supervised sale was won by Amber Energy, backed by Paul Singer’s Elliott Singer is a major Trump-aligned political donor and financier of pro-Israel political influence, including AIPAC’s United Democracy Project This is not Israeli state ownership It is private capital using political influence around the Israeli node while pursuing its own economic interests elsewhere Now zoom out 🇨🇳 Chinese state interests defend Chinese claims 🇷🇺 Russian state capital retains Venezuelan oil equity 🇸🇦 Saudi state capital owns US refining capacity already taking Venezuelan crude 🇺🇸 The US state gets economics, governance rights & preferential oil access through NABEP while private interests retain control 🇾🇪 The Houthis negotiate with Washington while allowing Israeli shipping through and targeting Saudi shipping and infrastructure 🇮🇱 Israel-aligned political influence overlaps with private capital positioned downstream This is multipolarity Countries are nodes Political ideologies mobilise support around those nodes But neither tells you where the economic benefit ultimately lands The Military Industrial Complex (MIC) provides power The Financial Industrial Complex (FIC) structures, finances, trades & owns the economic claims FIC is GLOBAL So here’s what I’m watching: Who finances NABEP? Does Aramco start buying Venezuelan crude directly? Does Motiva increase Venezuelan purchases while Saudi infrastructure remains under pressure? What happens to Russia’s 40% of Petromonagas? How are China’s claims treated? Where does Chevron’s expanding production go? Who ultimately controls CITGO? And how do Venezuelan oil flows change while the US-Houthi understanding keeps non-Saudi shipping moving but Saudi shipping remains targeted? Watch the contracts Watch the financing Watch the tankers Watch the ownership Follow the money

“It’s complicated” Not really It’s 2026 The occupation ethnic cleansing and genocide are extensively documented as well as what really happened on October 7 2023. What is complicated is saying that plainly when your career depends on people who may punish you for it I get it Money talks

🇺🇸🇸🇦🇮🇱 The US has approved a possible $24.3bn sale of 48 F35s to Saudi Arabia Israel wanted the sale conditioned on Saudi normalisation Washington is moving it forward without that condition Saudi state capital pays Lockheed Martin and Pratt and Whitney capture the revenue Saudi Arabia gains advanced capabilities while becoming more dependent on the US MIC for software training maintenance and upgrades Israel is the party losing leverage Its exclusive position is diluted Normalisation is no longer the price of Saudi access Its qualitative military edge remains protected but it can no longer dictate the entire regional architecture Now add the Houthis US officials reportedly negotiated separately with them in Oman The Houthis reportedly offered protection to American Israeli and other commercial shipping while excluding Saudi vessels then claimed attacks on Riyadh and Aramco facilities On the surface this looks like Saudi Houthi confrontation But it could also fit a wider transition Houthi pressure gives Saudi Arabia the justification to acquire American weapons while reinforcing Riyadh’s argument that US protection is unreliable and alternatives are necessary That allows Saudi Arabia to buy capabilities from the US MIC today while hedging through China Pakistan Turkey domestic production regional diplomacy and eventually a settlement with the Houthis This does not prove Saudi Houthi coordination But their actions may be serving different parts of the same regional outcome Saudi Arabia builds military autonomy The Houthis pressure US power out of the region Washington transfers more capability to Riyadh Israel loses its exclusive role as America’s indispensable regional MIC and TIC node The apparent conflict may be concealing a more unified direction of travel A regional security structure that is less dependent on Israel and eventually less dependent on permanent US The F35 sale is not final But if it survives Israeli pressure without being conditioned on normalisation it is another sign that Israel is not taking control of the regional architecture It is losing its privileged position inside it Keep following the money

🇸🇦 THE “SAUDI ARABIA QUITS mBRIDGE” STORY NEEDS CONTEXT The headline makes it sound like Saudi Arabia has suddenly abandoned the alternative payment architecture developing around China. That’s not what happened. 🇸🇦 SAMA says it completed its planned mBridge proof of concept on 13 May 2025 and then ceased being a formal participant. That happened more than a year ago. What’s new is the disclosure. 🇨🇭 The BIS had already “graduated out” of mBridge in October 2024 after the project reached Minimum Viable Product stage and transferred it to the participating central banks. The BIS says its incubation role was complete. 🇺🇸 The FT separately reported US pressure over concerns mBridge could weaken dollar and SWIFT sanctions leverage. Both accounts should be distinguished. But mBridge continued developing without the BIS and Saudi leaving mBridge did NOT mean Saudi returned to a dollar only architecture. 🇸🇦🇨🇳 Saudi still has a RMB50bn swap agreement with the PBoC, Chinese banking relationships and access to expanding RMB settlement infrastructure. 🇸🇦 It is simultaneously integrating GCC payment infrastructure. This isn’t simply the petrodollar being replaced by the petroyuan. It isn’t SWIFT being replaced by mBridge either. It increasingly looks like one dominant global financial network becoming multiple interoperable nodes. Now look at Iran. 🇺🇸🇦🇪🇪🇬 The US is targeting the UAE branches of Egypt’s state owned Banque Misr over alleged Iranian shadow banking activity. 🇹🇷🇮🇷 Turkey has revoked the licence of Iran’s Bank Mellat branch. 🇴🇲🇮🇷 But Oman is interesting. The Central Bank of Oman still lists Bank Melli Iran and Bank Saderat Iran as licensed banks. 🇴🇲🇮🇷 At the same time, Oman and Iran are negotiating arrangements around navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. So I’m watching whether Iran’s financial rails are being compressed rather than completely isolated. 🇨🇳 China remains the enormous external economic node. 🇴🇲 Oman remains an important Gulf banking and diplomatic bridge. Other Iranian routes remain, so there isn’t enough evidence to say Iranian trade is being deliberately funnelled exclusively through China and Oman. But if other Iranian financial nodes keep getting squeezed while Oman remains intact, that becomes increasingly significant, especially alongside the Hormuz negotiations. This fits the framework I’ve been discussing. 🇺🇸 The Western node can become more digitally dollarised through stablecoins, tokenised Treasuries and programmable dollar infrastructure. 🇨🇳 The Chinese node can expand RMB settlement through CIPS, swap lines and alternative payment infrastructure. Regional nodes can increasingly settle directly. CBDC infrastructure can connect central bank money without requiring some imaginary single BRICS currency. 🇸🇦 Saudi can therefore remain dollar pegged, issue dollar debt, own US assets. 🇸🇦🇨🇳 At the same time it can maintain RMB liquidity, Chinese banking relationships, GCC payment integration and the knowledge gained through mBridge. That isn’t necessarily Saudi choosing China over America. It is Saudi building optionality between nodes. And this is why “petrodollar vs petroyuan” misses the bigger change. 🇨🇳 CIPS volumes are growing rapidly, but CIPS volume does NOT equal oil settled in yuan. There isn’t sufficient evidence to claim the petroyuan has replaced the petrodollar. What may be eroding is something subtler. The dollar’s exclusivity as the settlement rail. 🇺🇸 The dollar can remain dominant while alternative rails grow underneath it. 🇨🇳 RMB settlement can grow without the RMB becoming the global reserve currency. 🇮🇷 Iran can increasingly use Chinese and regional rails without a BRICS currency. mBridge can continue without the BIS or Saudi Arabia formally participating.

🇻🇪 FOLLOW THE MONEY - VENEZUELA, HOUTHIS, SAUDI ARABIA & MULTIPOLARITY The deeper you go into Venezuela, the more interesting the capital structure becomes At the centre is Alejandro Betancourt and his family-controlled NABEP NABEP gets 17 Venezuelan oil fields containing approximately 65bn barrels of stated proven reserves The US government gets a protected 35% economic interest, the right to buy 20% of production at cost and first refusal on the remaining 80% The Betancourt family retains private control Now add the other nodes 🇨🇳 CHINA Several fields moving into NABEP were previously operated by Chinese companies China is defending existing creditor & commercial rights 🇷🇺 RUSSIA Russian state-owned Roszarubezhneft reportedly retains 40% of Petromonagas while Exxon negotiates around the same project 🇺🇸 CHEVRON Chevron never left Venezuela, but its position has just expanded dramatically, with $7bn+ investment planned targeting approximately 600k barrels/day Now follow the oil 🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA Saudi Aramco owns Motiva in Texas, home to America’s largest refinery Aramco Trading Americas has already bought Venezuelan heavy crude from Chevron for Motiva Venezuela, Chevron, Saudi state-owned refining capacity in Texas Now add Yemen 🇾🇪 THE HOUTHIS US officials just met Houthi representatives in Oman Reuters reports the Houthis reaffirmed their ceasefire with Washington and said they would not attack US or Israeli ships or other commercial vessels, except Saudi-owned vessels The Houthis have also publicly said Red Sea navigation is safe for everyone except Saudi vessels So right now they are allowing Israeli shipping through while targeting Saudi shipping and claiming attacks against Aramco infrastructure around Yanbu Yanbu is the Red Sea outlet of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, increasingly important when Hormuz is constrained At the same time Saudi Aramco owns America’s largest refinery and is already buying Venezuelan crude through Chevron 🇮🇱 ISRAEL-ALIGNED PRIVATE CAPITAL CITGO owns three major US refineries capable of processing Venezuelan heavy crude Its court-supervised sale was won by Amber Energy, backed by Paul Singer’s Elliott Singer is a major Trump-aligned political donor and financier of pro-Israel political influence, including AIPAC’s United Democracy Project This is not Israeli state ownership It is private capital using political influence around the Israeli node while pursuing its own economic interests elsewhere Now zoom out 🇨🇳 Chinese state interests defend Chinese claims 🇷🇺 Russian state capital retains Venezuelan oil equity 🇸🇦 Saudi state capital owns US refining capacity already taking Venezuelan crude 🇺🇸 The US state gets economics, governance rights & preferential oil access through NABEP while private interests retain control 🇾🇪 The Houthis negotiate with Washington while allowing Israeli shipping through and targeting Saudi shipping and infrastructure 🇮🇱 Israel-aligned political influence overlaps with private capital positioned downstream This is multipolarity Countries are nodes Political ideologies mobilise support around those nodes But neither tells you where the economic benefit ultimately lands The Military Industrial Complex (MIC) provides power The Financial Industrial Complex (FIC) structures, finances, trades & owns the economic claims FIC is GLOBAL So here’s what I’m watching: Who finances NABEP? Does Aramco start buying Venezuelan crude directly? Does Motiva increase Venezuelan purchases while Saudi infrastructure remains under pressure? What happens to Russia’s 40% of Petromonagas? How are China’s claims treated? Where does Chevron’s expanding production go? Who ultimately controls CITGO? And how do Venezuelan oil flows change while the US-Houthi understanding keeps non-Saudi shipping moving but Saudi shipping remains targeted? Watch the contracts Watch the financing Watch the tankers Watch the ownership Follow the money