Simon Dixon(@SimonDixonTwitt):🇸🇦🇮🇷🇴🇲 UPDATE: A useful correction and an even more interesting question. Saudi crude moving through Hormuz is NOT new. 🇸🇦 Saudi VLCCs have been moving through the Strait for months, including three carrying around 6 million barrels immediately after the US Iran agreement in June. 🇺🇸 The US military has also been helping Gulf oil move through the region, including ship to ship operations around Sohar and Fujairah. So this architecture predates the attack on Saudi Arabia’s East West pipeline. What changed after the pipeline went offline is the SCALE. 🇸🇦 Aramco has dramatically increased Gulf exports. Around 60 million barrels have reportedly been sold from Ras Tanura for September and October with ship to ship transfers planned off Sohar. On Sunday alone around 14 million barrels were loaded onto seven VLCCs. 🇴🇲 Oman is therefore becoming increasingly important. But I have seen claims that Saudi Arabia struck a new deal directly with Iran after the pipeline attack allowing these shipments through Hormuz, with Exxon taking a cut. I cannot find credible evidence supporting either claim yet. In fact, two VLCCs carrying Saudi crude were attacked while transiting the Omani corridor earlier this month. So I’m separating what we KNOW from what we suspect. We know Saudi crude has been moving through Hormuz for months. We know there has been US involvement in keeping Gulf oil moving. We know Oman is an increasingly important transshipment node. We know Iran, Oman, the US and others have been negotiating navigation arrangements around Hormuz. And we know Saudi Arabia dramatically increased Gulf exports after losing its East West pipeline route. What we DON’T yet know is whether Saudi Arabia has subsequently reached a direct or mediated agreement with Iran guaranteeing these increased flows. That is the missing piece I’m looking for. If somebody has primary evidence of the claimed Saudi Iran agreement or Exxon’s role, please send it to me. Because if it exists, it materially changes the story. Until then: Follow the oil. Follow the ships. Follow the agreements.

2026.09.22 09:34

🇸🇦🇮🇷🇴🇲 UPDATE: A useful correction and an even more interesting question. Saudi crude moving through Hormuz is NOT new. 🇸🇦 Saudi VLCCs have been moving through the Strait for months, including three carrying around 6 million barrels immediately after the US Iran agreement in June. 🇺🇸 The US military has also been helping Gulf oil move through the region, including ship to ship operations around Sohar and Fujairah. So this architecture predates the attack on Saudi Arabia’s East West pipeline. What changed after the pipeline went offline is the SCALE. 🇸🇦 Aramco has dramatically increased Gulf exports. Around 60 million barrels have reportedly been sold from Ras Tanura for September and October with ship to ship transfers planned off Sohar. On Sunday alone around 14 million barrels were loaded onto seven VLCCs. 🇴🇲 Oman is therefore becoming increasingly important. But I have seen claims that Saudi Arabia struck a new deal directly with Iran after the pipeline attack allowing these shipments through Hormuz, with Exxon taking a cut. I cannot find credible evidence supporting either claim yet. In fact, two VLCCs carrying Saudi crude were attacked while transiting the Omani corridor earlier this month. So I’m separating what we KNOW from what we suspect. We know Saudi crude has been moving through Hormuz for months. We know there has been US involvement in keeping Gulf oil moving. We know Oman is an increasingly important transshipment node. We know Iran, Oman, the US and others have been negotiating navigation arrangements around Hormuz. And we know Saudi Arabia dramatically increased Gulf exports after losing its East West pipeline route. What we DON’T yet know is whether Saudi Arabia has subsequently reached a direct or mediated agreement with Iran guaranteeing these increased flows. That is the missing piece I’m looking for. If somebody has primary evidence of the claimed Saudi Iran agreement or Exxon’s role, please send it to me. Because if it exists, it materially changes the story. Until then: Follow the oil. Follow the ships. Follow the agreements.

Simon Dixon@SimonDixonTwitt

2026.09.22 02:40

🇸🇦🇮🇷 SOMETHING VERY INTERESTING IS HAPPENING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ Reuters reports Saudi Aramco loaded around 14 MILLION barrels of crude onto seven VLCCs at Gulf terminals on Sunday. Satellite images reportedly show seven tankers around Ras Tanura. Why is this interesting? 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia’s East West pipeline was attacked and shut down. That pipeline exists specifically to allow Saudi crude to bypass Hormuz and reach the Red Sea. So what happened next? Saudi dramatically increased crude exports THROUGH Hormuz. And Reuters reports Aramco has sold around 60 million barrels from Ras Tanura for September and October with cargoes intended for ship to ship transfers at Sohar. 🇴🇲 Oman. So the emerging route looks like: 🇸🇦 Ras Tanura Strait of Hormuz 🇴🇲 Sohar 🇨🇳🇰🇷🇮🇳🇯🇵 Asian buyers Now it gets interesting. 🇮🇷 Iran has been restricting shipping through Hormuz. 🇮🇷🇴🇲 Iran and Oman have simultaneously been negotiating a temporary navigation corridor, mine clearance, information sharing, traffic management and eventually a longer term framework for the Strait. And now millions of barrels of Saudi crude are moving through Hormuz towards Oman. I have NOT found evidence yet that Iran gave Saudi Arabia permission or that these tankers are part of an Iran Saudi agreement. That distinction matters. But the question now becomes unavoidable. If Iran controls the threat environment around Hormuz, Oman is negotiating the navigation architecture and Saudi is dramatically increasing crude movements through the Strait, exactly how are these tankers being deconflicted? Who is guaranteeing passage? 🇮🇷 Iran? 🇴🇲 Oman? 🇺🇸 The US? Or some combination negotiated behind the scenes? This is what I’m watching. Because if evidence emerges that Iran is knowingly facilitating Saudi crude passage while Oman acts as the intermediary and transshipment node, that would be much more significant than seven tankers. It would be another piece of the regional architecture I believe is emerging as the Forever War winds down. Don’t follow the rhetoric. Follow the oil. Let’s see.

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