🇯🇵Yen slides after BoJ 25bp hike; intervention risk returns
The yen fell after the Bank of Japan delivered an expected 25bp rate rise, following an earlier hawkish Fed hike that had already pressured the currency. Earlier this month the yen had rallied on bets of faster BoJ tightening, unwind of yen funding arbitrage and speculation that Japanese pension funds would repatriate assets. Strategists warn that if markets conclude the BoJ cannot tighten as fast as the Fed, USD/JPY could move toward 160. With 25bp largely priced in, Friday’s decision or any subsequent communication read as dovish would raise that risk. The latest leg lower has put intervention risk back on the table; officials have stressed concern about the speed and disorderliness of moves rather than a specific level, but another push near 160 could test their tolerance. Traders will watch Governor Ueda’s post-decision press conference for guidance on the pace and scope of further tightening. (
🇯🇵Bank of Japan raises policy rate 25 bps to 1.25%; markets eye follow-up
Bank of Japan raised its policy rate 25 bps to 1.25% on Friday, matching all economists surveyed. The move was the fastest pace of tightening in 36 years, and the gap since June’s hike was the shortest since 1990. Governor Ueda will explain the decision and the near-term rate path at a scheduled press conference. FX markets have shifted focus from whether to hike to how many hikes will follow; several institutions warn the yen could weaken after the decision unless the BOJ signals stronger tightening. A Reuters survey shows markets broadly expect rates to rise to 1.5% by end‑March 2027 and to 1.75% in Q2 2027. (