Dropping a podcast with
@pequityresearch
Mr. P has been doing some great work breaking down the AI buildout and following where hyperscaler capex actually goes. In this episode I wanted to walk through the full stack with logic, memory, power, and networking.
We get into why memory could become the largest line item in the AI bill, what old GPU rental prices tell us about compute demand, and where value is going to accrue as the physical constraints get harder to solve.
At the center of the conversation is his view that AI spending cannot grow forever. Long-term contracts might change the shape of the next memory downturn, but they donโt eliminate the cycle. And signing a 10-year contract does not mean anyone can actually see 10 years of demand.
We also get into why heโs excited about optics, where NAND and HBF fit as agents use more memory, and his views on Chinese open source and the future of US model development.
We discuss:
- Why he thinks 10-year demand visibility is bullshit
- Memoryโs growing share of hyperscaler capex, and why estimates vary so much
- Why older GPUs are still renting and what that says about compute demand
- How long-term agreements, pricing floors, and prepayments actually work
- Power as a bottleneck, and why identifying a constraint isnโt the same as finding an investment
- Copper vs optics, and where networking value accrues
- Agents, NAND, and where HBF fits in the memory hierarchy
- CXMT, Chinese open source, and the risks of slowing frontier model development
Timestamps:
0:00 โ Why AI Spending Canโt Grow Forever
1:13 โ P Equity Researchโs Background
5:48 โ Where Hyperscaler Capex Actually Goes
8:00 โ Is Compute Still Tight?
12:08 โ Memoryโs Share of the AI Bill
17:20 โ Why the Memory Cycle Isnโt Dead
18:37 โ Inside a Long-Term Agreement
28:30 โ What Happens If Customers Cancel?
32:17 โ The Rising Cost of the AI Buildout
33:43 โ Copper vs Optics
38:49 โ Power and Gas Turbines
39:29 โ US Models and Chinese Open Source
42:36 โ Agents and NAND
47:00 โ Where HBF Fits
52:23 โ What P Is Most Excited About
56:27 โ CXMT and Chinaโs Memory Industry
1:04:00 โ Closing Thoughts
Enjoy!