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SouthernValue
@SouthernValue95
Infinitely curious. “Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up.” - Charlie Munger Nothing here is investment advice
Joined June 2019
1.8K Following    39.6K Followers
A non-tech, non-AI idea that is 1) very cheap 2) defensive 3) has idiosyncratic value creation opportunities 4) is already executing on those opportunities 5) good mgmt 6) smart/aligned capital allocation 7) real market cap - can own a lot… $MKL is trading ~5x earnings if they were to pursue the Jana plan to return excess capital and spinoff ventures. And trading <8x my estimate of 2027 earnings power as a consolidated entity. $MKL has endured a well documented stretch of self inflicted issues, lasting nearly a decade. In that difficult stretch it still grew tangible book value >10%, a testament to the balance of its business model, engineered for all-weather compounding. The insurance business has recently turned a corner and is under new management, but the market is sleeping on it. Insurance is a business where the people running it really matter and $MKL Insurance now has a real star in Simon Wilson, who took over as CEO in March 2025. He formerly ran Markel international and put up numbers like $KNSL (rapid growth and 70s-80s CR). In his first year Simon has returned the org to the lean decentralized model it was founded on, modernized archaic tech systems holding them back, deployed AI to automate claims management and other manual processes, exited troublesome and capital intensive markets where MKL had no edge, and has improved the profitability of the business despite a soft market backdrop. While MKL’s Insurance turnaround is evidently working. The market isn’t rewarding it yet as MKL trades close to its lowest P/B and P/E excluding GFC and Covid periods. Thankfully the company recognizes the disconnect and is aggressively buying back stock. ~94% of the market cap is covered by the value of ventures (12x trailing EBIT) + public equities + net cash. The market is putting very little value on insurance earnings. Valuing ventures at 12x trailing EBIT, and assuming stocks were sold, paid >$2B taxes on gains, and excess regulatory capital was returned in a dividend, the remaining insurance business would be trading <1x book and ~5x earnings. This for a business with ~10% organic growth, and an improving combined ratio despite a soft market backdrop (demonstrating successful idiosyncratic value creation). Highlights: - New CEO Simon Wilson is deeply strategic, analytical, and attracts and retains talent by enabling them to succeed. - Jana involved and adding - Record buyback pace - Growing insurance profitability in a hard market. Hard changes are in rear view. - Cheap on earnings power, book value, and has excess capital equal to ~20 of market cap - Exiting reinsurance will free up ~5% of capital with no impact on earnings - Aligned comp model: Gaynor gets paid based on long-term share price CAGR
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