Lin
@Speculator_io
Speculator & Investor since 2013 | Engineer & VC | Future Optimist | Here to help you make better investment decisions
444 Following 140.1K Followers
Elon just said that most neoclouds will eventually die.
And we might already be seeing it play out.
Even if AI is the biggest tech revolution of our lifetime, that doesn't mean every company building AI infrastructure will survive.
Some will thrive. Many will struggle. Most will be liquidated.
And we've seen this before during the internet boom.
The internet changed the world, but plenty of companies that built the infrastructure went bankrupt along the way.
This time won't be different.
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Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
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The most dangerous markets are not bear markets.
In bear markets, the direction is clear. Everything is going down. That’s tough, but at least you know what you’re dealing with.
The real danger is when the market is directionless.
Big moves up, big moves down. One day it’s euphoria, the next it’s panic. Everyone gets whipsawed.
That kind of price action messes with your head. You feel like you have to do something, but almost every move seems to be the wrong one.
You chase gap ups, only to get stopped out on gap downs. You start overtrading and second-guessing every decision.
This kind of market wears you down, both physically and mentally.
These are the periods you want to avoid at all cost.
Learn to sit on your hands. Learn to be patient. And wait until the conditions are in your favor.
It’s ok to miss the bottom. You don't need to catch the absolute bottom to make money.
Bull markets last years, not days.
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A simple trick to stop overtrading is to ask yourself before every trade:
“If I could only take 1 trade this week, would this be the one?”
A few tips on market corrections:
1. Survive.
2. Trade less.
3. Cash is king.
4. Get off leverage.
5. Keep your losses small.
6. Protect your (mental) capital.
7. Don't add to losing positions.
8. Never try to time the market bottom.
9. Start small and build positions gradually.
10. Only add to your winners.
11. When in doubt, stay out.
12. Don't fight the trend.
13. Don’t fall for FOMO.
There will always be another opportunity to make money.
But first you have to survive to thrive.
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Market corrections are normal.
On average, you’ll see:
-5% dips: every 4 months
-10% corrections: every 12 months
-15% drawdowns: every 18 months
-20% bear markets: every 3.5 years
-30% crashes: every 10 years
Volatility is the price you pay for long-term returns.
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The Great Neocloud Meltdown
$SLNH Soluna: -85.99%
$BRUN Boost Run: -77.02%
$BTBT Bit Digital: -76.26%
$AIBZ Bitzero: - 73.76%
$WYFI WhiteFiber: -72.84%
$BTDR Bitdeer: -70.58%
$DGXX Digi Power X: -70.54%
$HIVE Hive Digital: -68.36%
$SHAZ Sharon AI: -68.11%
$CIFR Cipher Mining: -67.02%
$MARA Mara: -64.90%
$NUAI New Era Energy & Digital: -63.92%
$WULF TeraWulf: -61.33%
$GLXY Galaxy Digital: -60.95%
$CLSK CleanSpark: -60.91%
$IREN Iren: -60.24%
$APLD Applied Digital: -59.90%
$ORCL Oracle: -59.52%
$CRWV CoreWeave: -56.26%
$CORZ Core Scientific: -55.65%
$RIOT Riot Platforms: -50.20%
$HUT Hut 8: -46.83%
$VNET VNET: -68.99%
$GDS GDS: -46.79%
$NBIS Nebius: -37.97%
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It takes years to realize that trading less makes you more money.
In the beginning, you feel like you always need to be doing something. Looking for setups where there are none and opening new positions just because you're bored.
But eventually you realize that most opportunities are aren’t worth taking and most trades are unnecessary.
Your job as an investor is to wait for a fat pitch. And then go really big.
The hardest part is doing nothing and resist the urge to trade, while you watch other stocks move without you.
The money is made in the waiting.
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The Al Server Power Supply Chain
Microcontroller Unit
$TXN Texas Instruments
$NXPI NXP Semiconductors
$IFX Infineon Technologies
$STM STMicroelectronics
Battery Management System
$ADI Analog Devices
$TXN Texas Instruments
$NXPI NXP Semiconductors
$IFX Infineon Technologies
$STM STMicroelectronics
Battery Backup
$FLEX Flex
Cooling Fan
$VRT Vertiv
Busbar
$SU.EPA Schneider Electric
$LR.EPA Legrand
$ETN Eaton
$ABB ABB
$VRT Vertiv
Chassis
$SMCI Super Micro Computer
Rack
$VRT Vertiv
$SU Schneider Electric
$ETN Eaton
$LR Legrand
Power Supply Unit
$FLEX Flex
$AEIS Advanced Energy Industries
DC-DC Converter
$TXN Texas Instruments
$IFX Infineon Technologies
$STM STMicroelectronics
$ADI Analog Devices
$MPWR Monolithic Power Systems
$VICR Vicor
Supercapacitor
$ETN Eaton
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Brazilian stocks are celebrating Bolsonaro's victory over President Lula da Silva in the first round:
$XP XP +33.42%
$PICS PicPay +26.51%
$STNE StoneCo +24.35%
$INTR Inter +23.40%
$PAGS PagBank +22.62%
$BBD Bradesco +19.71%
$AGBK Agibank +19.23%
$SBS Sabesp +16.74%
$ITUB Itaú Unibanco +15.60%
$NU Nubank +13.63%
$PBR Petrobras +12.42%
$CIG Cemig +10.93%
$ARCO Arcos Dorados +10.55%
$VIV Telefonica Brasil +10.57%
$VINP Vinci Compass +10.37%
$ELPC Copel +9.72%
$ABEV Ambev +9.70%
$TIMB TIM Brasil +8.86%
$AFYA Afya +7.90%
$MELI MercadoLibre +7.51%
$SID CSN +6.49%
$BSBR Santander Brasil +5.65%
$UGP Ultrapar +4.03%
$GGB Gerdau +2.79%
$VALE Vale +1.74%
$EMBJ Embraer +0.20%
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The 7 Layers of Photonics
1. Materials & Wafers: $AXTI $TECK $IQE $LWLG $SOI $WOLF
2. Tools: $AIXA $ALRIB $VECO $LRCX $AMAT $SHMN $ONTO
3. Lasers: $SIVE $MTSI $HIMX $STM $LASR
4. Foundries: $TSEM $FN $XFAB $SANM $UMC $GFS
5. Testing: $AEHR $FORM $COHU $TER $VIAV $ASX $AMKR
6. Optics: $LITE $COHR $POET $MEMS $AAOI $OPTX $LPTH
7. Networking: $CRDO $MRVL $SMTC $CIEN $NOK $GLW $ALAB $ANET $AVGO
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Nvidia's forward PE is now at 18x.
The last time Nvidia traded below a 20x forward PE was 10 years ago.
The stock price was $0.87 back then...
Literally no one is slowing down in AI.
Just in the last few days, we got:
- Gemini 4 Argon
- GPT-6.1 Sol
- GPT-6 Luna
- Sonnet 5.5
- Opus 5.5
- Grok 4.7
The pace is getting ridiculous.
And it's only accelerating...
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Meta's Muse is the fastest growing AI app.
It just launched and already struggling to keep up with demand.
Every Muse user gets a free computer in the cloud.
It runs on:
- 2 vCPUs: $AMD
- 8GB of RAM: $MU $SKHY
- 100GB of SSD: $SNDK
We still need much more compute.
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All the public companies Trump invited to his state dinner with Xi Jinping:
$NVDA NVIDIA - Jensen Huang, CEO
$AAPL Apple - Tim Cook, Executive Chairman
$GOOGL Alphabet - Sundar Pichai, CEO
$MSFT Microsoft - Satya Nadella, CEO
$AMZN Amazon - Jeff Bezos, Executive Chairman
$META Meta - Mark Zuckerberg, CEO
$MU Micron - Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO
$SPCX SpaceXAI & $TSLA Tesla - Elon Musk, CEO
$AMD Advanced Micro Devices - Lisa Su, CEO
$JPM JPMorgan Chase - Jamie Dimon, CEO
$V Visa - Ryan McInerney, CEO
$XOM ExxonMobil - Darren Woods, CEO
$MA Mastercard - Michael Miebach, CEO
$DELL Dell Technologies - Michael Dell, CEO
$GE GE Aerospace - Larry Culp, CEO
$GS Goldman Sachs - David Solomon, CEO
$EPA.MC LVMH - Bernard Arnault, CEO
$C Citigroup - Jane Fraser, CEO
$QCOM Qualcomm - Cristiano Amon, CEO
$BLK BlackRock - Larry Fink, CEO
$PFE Pfizer - Albert Bourla, CEO
$BA Boeing - Kelly Ortberg, CEO
$BX Blackstone - Stephen Schwarzman, CEO
$LMT Lockheed Martin - Jim Taiclet, CEO
$ICE Intercontinental Exchange - Jeff Sprecher, CEO
$GM General Motors - Mary Barra, CEO
$ZM Zoom - Eric Yuan, CEO
$LVS Las Vegas Sands - Miriam Adelson, Shareholder
$PSKY Paramount Skydance - David Ellison, CEO
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The Best Neoclouds
Tier 1: $CRWV $NBIS
Tier 2: $ORCL $GOOGL
Tier 3: $MSFT
Tier 4: $AMZN $DOCN
Tier 5: $IBM $BTDR
Underperforming: $SHAZ $IREN $WYFI $AKAM
Unavailable: $SPCX $BRUN $BABA
The S&P 500 hasn't had a single 1% down day in nearly 2 months.
It's likely that big institutions are building their positions now.
They can't just push massive orders into the market all at once without moving prices, so their trading desks break those orders into smaller pieces and execute them gradually over time.
And there is still a ton of money on the sideline.
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Last week, everyone thought AI was over and slowing down.
Meanwhile:
- OpenAI released GPT-6 Sol & Luna
- Anthropic released Opus 5.5
- SpaceXAI released Grok 4.7
- Meta's Muse is going viral
The AI slowdown narrative didn't even last a week...
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There will always be reasons to question the AI trade:
DeepSeek, AI capex, data center cancellations, chip export controls, credit risks, circular financing, AI pace
Every few months, there is another headline creating fear.
Every time, it has been an opportunity to buy.
AI is not slowing down.
We'll still need more compute, more data centers, more chips, more energy, not less.
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Meta now owns the entire AI stack.
1. Chips: MTIA
2. Infrastructure: Meta Compute
3. Foundation Models: Muse Spark
4. Applications: Muse & Meta AI
Every layer matters.
The more layers you own, the bigger your advantage.
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The Al Cloud Ecosystem
AI Clouds
$SPCX SpaceXAI
$NBIS Nebius
$CRWV CoreWeave
$IREN IREN
$SHAZ Sharon AI
Hyperscalers
$MSFT Microsoft
$META Meta
$GOOGL Alphabet
$AMZN Amazon
$ORCL Oracle
Enterprises
$PLTR Palantir
$NOW ServiceNow
$CRM Salesforce
$SNOW Snowflake
$MDB MongoDB
$CRWD CrowdStrike
$PANW Palo Alto Networks
$NET Cloudflare
$DOCN Digital Ocean
$INOD Innodata
Semiconductors
$NVDA NVIDIA
$MU Micron
$SKHY SK Hynix
$AVGO Broadcom
$TSM TSMC
$INTC Intel
$ARM Arm
$AMD AMD
$MRVL Marvell
Samsung
Networking
$ANET Arista Networks
$CRDO Credo
$ALAB Astera Labs
$COHR Coherent
$LITE Lumentum
Servers
$DELL Dell
$HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise
$SMCI Super Micro Computer
Power
$BE Bloom Energy
$VRT Vertiv
$ETN Eaton
$GEV GE Vernova
$PWR Quanta Services
Data Centers
$DLR Digital Realty
$CORZ Core Scientific
$APLD Applied Digital
$WULF TeraWulf
$CIFR Cipher Mining
$HUT Hut 8
$CLSK CleanSpark
$RIOT Riot Platforms
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Biotech continues to be one of the leading sectors right now:
$ABSI Absci +17.29%
$TEM Tempus Al +15.29%
$TWST Twist Bioscience +11.61%
$BHVN Biohaven +11.28%
$BFLY Butterfly Network +10.27%
$CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics +9.65%
$ABCL AbCellera +9.68%
$NTLA Intellia Therapeutics +8.92%
$MRNA Moderna +8.91%
$CMPS COMPASS Pathways +8.51%
$TXG 10x Genomics +7.18%
$ALMR Alamar Biosciences +7.18%
$ILMN Illumina +6.27%
$BLLN BillionToOne +6.48%
$BRKR Bruker +5.09%
$NTRA Natera +5.04%
$NEO NeoGenomics +4.12%
$MBX MBX Biosciences +4.13%
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One of the strongest sectors outside of AI right now is Biotech.
Oncology
$TNGX Tango Therapeutics
$ELVN Enliven Therapeutics
$RVMD Revolution Medicines
$RLAY Relay Therapeutics
$CGON CG Oncology
$PSNL Personalis
$GH Guardant Health
$NEO NeoGenomics
$INCY Incyte
Neurology
$DFTX Definium Therapeutics
$CMPS COMPASS Pathways
$DNLI Denali Therapeutics
$XENE Xenon Pharmaceuticals
$BIlB Biogen
$NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences
$CPRX Catalyst Pharmaceuticals
Immunology
$ORKA Oruka Therapeutics
$DNTH Dianthus Therapeutics
$APGE Apogee Therapeutics
$IMVT Immunovant
$KNSA Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals
$TGTX TG Therapeutics
$PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics
Genomics
$NTLA Intellia Therapeutics
$EDIT Editas Medicine
$BEAM Beam Therapeutics
$CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics
$ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals
$KRYS Krystal Biotech
$VCEL Vericel
Rare Diseases
$LQDA Liquidia
$MBX MBX Biosciences
$EWTX Edgewise Therapeutics
$TVTX Travere Therapeutics
$TRVI Trevi Therapeutics
$PVLA Palvella Therapeutics
$VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Drug Discovery
$TWST Twist Bioscience
$ABSI Absci
$RXRX Recursion
$ABCL AbCellera
$NRIX Nurix Therapeutics
Medical Devices & Life Science Tools
$TWST Twist Bioscience
$ABSIR Absci
$BFLY Butterfly Network
$TXG 10x Genomics
$ABCL AbCellera
$BRKR Bruker
$ALMR Alamar Biosciences
$TECH Bio-Techne
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