I recently learned from @NotTuxedoSam that you actually don't need to be 2-3sd smart if you can be 2-3sd stupid. Don't underestimate how hard it is to be 2-3sd stupid or you'll end up as a midwit. Helps to stay in contact with a 1-2sd stupid person so you know what to dumb down
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i just want to know when $META Muse, $CRWD, $IBM, $NVDA, $AAPL and $ACN will announce a $10B joint venture to end spam calling forever. that AI ROI would be truly incalculable
wow the $AMD OAI/Meta home run warrants are already in the money. unthinkable in *checks notes* October 2025
the core difference between NYC and SF is the sheer amount of red tape BS NYC taxes people with. whereas SF you’re encouraged to toe the line. likely why NYC is unlikely to be the home of any huge outcomes until the conclusion of this cycle, whenever that may be
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I wonder how much of gen z/millennial behavior towards spending (gunning experiences, lower savings rate, no desire to own property) is a function of toxic social media advertising just working vs the macro
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@GavinSBaker hopefully we’ll have the chance to ask questions in a way that’s slightly different than lesser conferences :P
I am most excited for @JensenHuang at @TomorrowXSummit . despite my (correct) short thesis, I think there are things $NVDA can do - 75% or more driven by messaging, 25% or less driven by corp action. but it’s a rare situation where the power to flip the script is 100% in their hands - I am hopeful for the sake of the market and frankly our country that the stock can work again
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Starting our speaker announcements with Jensen Huang (@JensenHuang), who will be on the main stage at the @TomorrowXSummit.
We built TomorrowX so the FinX community and investors writing about these companies get to hear from management directly. Many more names coming over the next few weeks!
November 17-18 at the Moody Center in Austin. Hosted with @GavinSBaker and @atreidesmgmt, @antoniogracias and Valor Equity Partners, @rbiscardi and @iconnections_io. Thanks to @NVIDIA.
Registration link below.
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every few months @insane_analyst reminds me that I am in fact stupid
in 3 years the MBA probably becomes like one of those BS AWS or Salesforce certifications or a #opentowork# banner on LI - a nothing burger at best, glaring contra indicator at worst
Warsh sounds hawkish AF. we probably get a little relief today but hard to see a durable rally if this is the backdrop.
amazing how many shots ppl who fail in private investing get. all you need is one brand and you have escape velocity even if you never return a penny in your career. wonder why we haven’t seen VC fee compression yet. someone should look into this, curious what LP-types think
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in honor of the United 100 year anniversary, they’re delaying my flight for 100 hours. domestic air travel now the ultimate humiliation ritual $UAL
some random career musings:
- of the ppl in my college class who got the "giga prestigious" jobs, 75%+ are out of finance. that's not a judgement call (many still successful) just a comment
- ppl who have had the best outcomes in finance have mainly been "good but not great" outcomes - all saw their careers almost end and said "no"
- the biggest financial outcomes have all come from outside of finance
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if you guys keep doing this to AI semis this week I’m probably gonna flip from giga bear to giga bull in record time. definitely moving more to latter camp. nothing has changed dummies $SMH $MU $MRVL $SKHY $SNDK $LITE $NVDA
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dumb question but where do the random ladies and kids who sell assorted “chicle y chocolate” on the subway procure their supply? do they have some kind of bulk deal to acquire M&Ms, Reese’s and Welch’s gummies in size? how do they coordinate coverage areas?
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$VRT and terrestrial DC plays cooked. NeVeR bEt AgAiNsT Elon!
@ryanfoxeth @SawyerMerritt I am highly confident that SpaceX will be launching Nvidia VR NLV72 AI computers in space next year
can agree that what Dario and Sam are saying is not genuine and trying to cover up an issue with the biz models + trying to legislate their way back. couldn’t be coming at a worse time as rates tick up. doesn’t break in a straight line, but clear that it’s arrivederci upcycle
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at the end of last year I had postulated that H1 would be a bubble and H2 would be the beginning of the end. my conviction in this continues to grow:
- memory (which us finally dominated by DC) is losing steam - similar to previous cycles the “good guy” driver no longer powering the train is bad
- only cloud (renting GPUs to labs) is “actually good” at hypers. that puts crazy onus on 2 co’s that aren’t all coming up roses anymore
- now that financing relies on debt, rates glidepathing up is a big problem
this will take a different form that before (send it all down!) given that pods must always be long some stocks. i think this is just “big unwind” but i am not sure how the market plays it now vs. ‘22 other than increased vol
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the number of times ESPN cuts to Brad Pitt’s inappropriately young gf is nuts. WE WANT TENNIS
blows my mind that there are two whole stadiums of ppl who could drop a casual $10k to watch tennis. in case you’re wondering why ppl across the country are so angry + whether the US dollar is a joke now
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