at the end of last year I had postulated that H1 would be a bubble and H2 would be the beginning of the end. my conviction in this continues to grow:
- memory (which us finally dominated by DC) is losing steam - similar to previous cycles the “good guy” driver no longer powering the train is bad
- only cloud (renting GPUs to labs) is “actually good” at hypers. that puts crazy onus on 2 co’s that aren’t all coming up roses anymore
- now that financing relies on debt, rates glidepathing up is a big problem
this will take a different form that before (send it all down!) given that pods must always be long some stocks. i think this is just “big unwind” but i am not sure how the market plays it now vs. ‘22 other than increased vol