Just Another Pod Guy(@TMTLongShort):Six months later and my view on this hasn’t changed at all. Fast forward another 18 months from now and I think the median public SaaS co will be down -60% or more from current levels with a handful that have tripled because they managed to ride the AI wave and a larger number that are in an absolute death spiral. Whats fascinating is the non-maxis who seemingly hold two contradicting thoughts in their heads simultaneously…. They say hey AI is going to be focused on solving cancer and isn’t incentivized to burn tokens on replicating existing software rails…they also say hey we have way too much compute being built relative to future demand. Will be interesting to see how they reconcile these two views when they get their hands on upcoming models which clearly will demonstrate the capability that bears have been warning about while also having a directive to be as cost-effective as possible on increasingly longer-duration objectives. Like I’ve said before “the easy money in shorting SaaS is behind us”. The first selloff was on EV concern. The next selloff will be on budget crowd out. Tread carefully. Avoid the space if you can. If you’re a software analyst whose PM is forcing you to pair trades in the space find ways to long the compute factor and start sending out your resume 🫡

2026.09.02 11:55

Six months later and my view on this hasn’t changed at all. Fast forward another 18 months from now and I think the median public SaaS co will be down -60% or more from current levels with a handful that have tripled because they managed to ride the AI wave and a larger number that are in an absolute death spiral. Whats fascinating is the non-maxis who seemingly hold two contradicting thoughts in their heads simultaneously…. They say hey AI is going to be focused on solving cancer and isn’t incentivized to burn tokens on replicating existing software rails…they also say hey we have way too much compute being built relative to future demand. Will be interesting to see how they reconcile these two views when they get their hands on upcoming models which clearly will demonstrate the capability that bears have been warning about while also having a directive to be as cost-effective as possible on increasingly longer-duration objectives. Like I’ve said before “the easy money in shorting SaaS is behind us”. The first selloff was on EV concern. The next selloff will be on budget crowd out. Tread carefully. Avoid the space if you can. If you’re a software analyst whose PM is forcing you to pair trades in the space find ways to long the compute factor and start sending out your resume 🫡

Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort

2026.02.05 10:59

You have to be a systems level thinker. Zoom in and zoom out. What are the LOs thinking? How many boomer PMs knew what a “Claude” was a month ago? How many have even thought about a world in ten years where software moats are gone? How about in five? CFOs are going to aggressively fire people. They are going to push their remaining engineers to aggressively use AI tools. They will aggressively acquire “AI native” startups. They will aggressively ramp their compute budgets and blow up near term gross margins. At a system level that re-enforces the narrative even tho every cfo is acting rationally. The easy money shorting SaaS has been made. Vol goes up from here. But as a group the road forward is pain and more pain with brief moments of respite 🫡

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