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Just Another Pod Guy
@TMTLongShort
Economic Blitzkrieg. Never said it was a good bet, just a complex bet. Decoupling ™️ Long/Short Tech Investor. Will say retarded shit often. 🫡
10.2K Following    60.1K Followers
Am I the only one who nuked their sellside research consumption by like -90%? Between ASKB, X, groupchats, substack and podcasts the marginal utility for me has gone to near zero. Still skim spec sales for positioning but even that is down by a lot since I start with TMTB.
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Message to people in Washington: You have less time than you think. You need to assemble a group that includes the lab leaders and the brightest minds in economics & finance and pencil out how you are going to incentivize American corporations to adopt AI quickly while simultaneously diffusing the benefits of the ensuing automation to impacted workers. You cannot be reactionary here. The narrative will get away from you. You need to be game theorying out how you can maximize benefit to American workers while pushing as much pain as possible to foreign workers within American and multi-nationals. You need to be talking seriously about gatekeeping frontier access by industry and geography. Ditto for energy and compute access. There is a delicate balance of finance, tech and geopol and you have one shot to get it right. Look around the room and ask “who amongst us was skeptical about AI timelines and who was earliest in identifying its trajectory” … if you don’t have at least a couple maxis in the room you’ve already failed. You. Don’t. Have. Much. Time.
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Digital is solved. Brockman said they have multiple models in reserve. Brown said scaling laws are holding. Focus on robotics, sensors, wet lab automation and rapid admin automation plays. Everything that needs to be funded will be funded. Long compute. Long compute. Long more compute. Most of you were born into a four or five decade stretch where society lacked imagination. Something went wrong in the 70s. We lost our mojo for a bit. We are about to get it back. Be optimistic. The future is here. We’ve done this before you just weren’t alive for it. Los alamos. Freedoms forge. Apollo. Accelerate, anon 🚀
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It occurs to me that META is going to have a very hard time keeping up with the frontier…not because their team isn’t cracked or because they lack compute….its because when they get to the frontier their safety burden will be a lot higher than Ants or OAIs Could you imagine if their rouge AI fucks something up Zuck being the villain for two consecutive eras is not an option
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Republican sweep 🫡
Best pollster in 2024 days generic ballot is R+1 Man oh man
I actually don’t believe Lutnik. But I would say exactly what he’s saying if I wanted the Canadian libs to never be elected again after I put Canada into a depression.
The Americans aren’t going to let Mark Carney control the narrative so he can keep his grip on power anymore. This is refreshing. Finally they are saying out loud what we knew he was up to the whole time.
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There’s going to be very interesting shifts in gender-ratios at high-performing companies as the number of humans needed nukes down thanks to AI eliminating the traditional corporate sprawl and fake email job dynamic that has proliferated over the last two decades. If you want an interesting test case look at the male:female ratio of risk-takers and employees in general at small hedge funds and how that changes after they pass the ten person tipping point.
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This is a huge societal illness not enough people talk about. Men and women are supposed to work together and collaborate, not point fingers and "blame" each other for problems that in the vast majority of cases aren't even real (charts related)
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My favorite peptide dealers have all shutdown their Reta availability. Good thing your boy stocked five years worth in his freezer 😉
I don't think selling Retatrutide right now is a good idea unless you have money for lawyers
Admin is firmly ASI-pilled
The Trump administration filed a brief supporting OpenAI against the New York Times. The Department of Justice told the court that the United States has a strong interest in 'rejecting any argument that training LLMs on copyrighted texts violates copyright law,' including on national-security grounds. The filing also says training is 'extraordinarily transformative', thus is fair use, and does not violate copyright law.
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The first stage was boomer PMs pattern-recognizing CHGG being disrupted across other sectors post Claude Code The second stage is CEOs pattern-recognizing AI-adoption within their employee-base vs prior cycles of cloud eating on-prem or excel eating graph paper The third stage is CFOs pattern-recognizing AI agents as analogous to outsourcing labor to China or India The fourth stage is exec boards watching a new vertical like accounting get torched overnight and running the pattern-rec on to their own sector and panicking. Claude Code was easy to dismiss. Verifiable rewards. Domain expertise of the labs. Fully digital. When the model capability broadens you get tipping points and the second tipping point marks a pattern. Human psychology isnt rocket science.
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Six months later and my view on this hasn’t changed at all. Fast forward another 18 months from now and I think the median public SaaS co will be down -60% or more from current levels with a handful that have tripled because they managed to ride the AI wave and a larger number that are in an absolute death spiral. Whats fascinating is the non-maxis who seemingly hold two contradicting thoughts in their heads simultaneously…. They say hey AI is going to be focused on solving cancer and isn’t incentivized to burn tokens on replicating existing software rails…they also say hey we have way too much compute being built relative to future demand. Will be interesting to see how they reconcile these two views when they get their hands on upcoming models which clearly will demonstrate the capability that bears have been warning about while also having a directive to be as cost-effective as possible on increasingly longer-duration objectives. Like I’ve said before “the easy money in shorting SaaS is behind us”. The first selloff was on EV concern. The next selloff will be on budget crowd out. Tread carefully. Avoid the space if you can. If you’re a software analyst whose PM is forcing you to pair trades in the space find ways to long the compute factor and start sending out your resume 🫡
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You have to be a systems level thinker. Zoom in and zoom out. What are the LOs thinking? How many boomer PMs knew what a “Claude” was a month ago? How many have even thought about a world in ten years where software moats are gone? How about in five? CFOs are going to aggressively fire people. They are going to push their remaining engineers to aggressively use AI tools. They will aggressively acquire “AI native” startups. They will aggressively ramp their compute budgets and blow up near term gross margins. At a system level that re-enforces the narrative even tho every cfo is acting rationally. The easy money shorting SaaS has been made. Vol goes up from here. But as a group the road forward is pain and more pain with brief moments of respite 🫡
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Guys I know we are all trying to trade this stuff and just collect a paycheck …but holy shit just step back and look at where we are as humans. Like holy fuck. Our kids might just live forever.
I disagree with @LukeGromen on a lot but I absolutely agree with him that this is bullish gold. In the era of financial warfare the value of a neutral reserve asset rockets higher.
He said Iran. The method and consequences is not Iran-only , it’s a veiled message to China as well Bessent : we know the BVI trust companies, we know the $100 million houses, we are going to close all that down. Stolen assets go to the victims. After 47 years it is over. With us or against us. That is the same wrapper Chinese political families have used for twenty years. Panama Papers put relatives of eight Politburo Standing Committee members in BVI and Cook Islands companies , including Xi’s brother-in-law, Deng Jiagui. Wen Jiabao’s family was documented at $2.7 billion. ODNI’s 2025 unclassified report still had Xi’s siblings, nieces and nephews north of $1 billion, mostly not in his name. Congress has now ordered a public 2026 follow-up: addresses, proxies, overseas real estate, the full Politburo. The official pile is parked the same way. The “China” line in TIC is $633 billion. Belgium (Euroclear), Luxembourg, the UK and Canada hold the rest of the custody. Russia already taught everyone what happens to reserves in those rooms. Bessent will not say “Beijing” on this clip. In another interview he called China a partner on Hormuz and said he will not blow up the global financial system. Yet Different targets, same map. Family trusts and trophy houses are the thing he just described, in public, as findable and freezable. The Chinese leaders. They already know which islands he meant. And yes folks will say that this is the path to losing reserve status . BRIICS and all that . I’m not sure that is ever going to happen . Sure a split of the worlds financial system but choosing the Chinese side isn’t a no brainer for many countries except Russia and Iran Folks are choosing sides it’s still hard to choose against the biggest consumption economy .
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this is the nightmare scenario we've been expecting. a glm 5.3 model with its safeguards removed completely independently, capable of unrestricted offensive cyber exploits. some thoughts: - these guys downloaded glm 5.3's weights, ran a bunch of contrasting prompts to detect where the refusal safeguards were then used a technique known as orthagonalization to remove them. - the resulting model accepts your requests 85% of the time. the "zero-refusal" version just spouts gibberish so doesn't actually work as well. - this was only possible because the weights were open and available. this is essentially what dario was concerned abt. - this will spark a secondary "grey market" for companies that seek to offer you the same model but effectively jail-broken. with the hugging face exploit and anthropic + openai pausing training, we need to do everything to stop stuff like this becoming a problem.
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Nuke healthcare admin. Kill em all (figuratively)
Today, we’re bringing ChatGPT closer to the systems, information, and workflows healthcare teams already rely on. ♥️ We’re introducing a new EHR integration to connect supported Epic environments to ChatGPT and a plugin connecting to nine additional industry data sources.
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Sam Altman on OpenAI’s next model and the AI backlash I recently sat down with Sam for a two-part conversation. We covered a lot of ground: the need to slow down frontier research, alignment concerns, OpenAI's next big model, Astra, competition with Anthropic, his thoughts on an IPO, reaching AGI, consumer hardware, and a lot more. Timestamps: 00:00 Why OpenAI Slowed Training 08:37 What Alignment Means 15:22 Keeping Humans in Control 24:39 AGI vs. Superintelligence 30:04 OpenAI’s Next Compute Bet 31:47 AI Backlash, Jobs, and Creators 41:31 OpenAI’s Missteps and Refocus 45:47 Astra and Computer-Using Agents 47:42 Regulation and the AI Race 51:24 Merging ChatGPT and Codex 54:22 The AI Compute Bubble 57:07 Recursive Self-Improvement and IPO 58:22 Humanoid Robots and Consumer Devices 1:05:47 Life After Superintelligence This episode was produced in partnership with @TIME. Thanks to the show's premier sponsors: @Atlassian, @meetgranola, and @mercury.
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As I’m listening to the latest Dwarkesh eps I keep thinking “wow the Anthropic guys were incredibly prescient focusing on interpetability” which then leads me to think “wow agents communicating to each other using human-legible mediums must be incredibly compute inefficient” which then leads me to think “oh fuck at least some fraction of the open-source community is l going to be far less stringent and will gladly cut corners if it means they can develop more compute-efficient agent swarms” which then leads me to think “oh fuck this is not good”
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Decouple.
A Chinese court has frozen up to 2.14 billion yuan ($300 million) of assets held by Dutch chipmaker Nexperia and its equipment arm, in a case brought by the firm's Chinese owner, electronics group Wingtech Technology .
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