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Teslaconomics
@Teslaconomics
I post my conscious thoughts w/ the world, live to the fullest, keep things simple, truthful & filter the noise. Long-term investor in Tesla, SpaceX, xAI/X.
Joined April 2018
230 Following    511.5K Followers
I bet all these AI companies are sweating right now bc they know SpaceXAI is about to take over. This fool just told Elon it's already over for SpaceXAI and that in 2 to 3 months, Anthropic and OpenAI will have something even better. Many forget, SpaceXAI is just 3 yrs old. Anthropic is about 6. OpenAI is about 10. Elon said if they keep picking up speed, SpaceX is going to be in first place in about 6 months. He's also cautiously optimistic they have a model at Anthropic's Fable and OpenAI's GPT-6 level in 2 to 3 months. They started last… and they're the ones catching up the fastest to become first. Once AI is smart enough to do the job, getting even smarter stops mattering. You don't need a genius in your toaster… you need it to do the work, be there when you ask, and be cheap enough that normal people use it every day. The hard part honestly is the computers. Getting a huge number of AI chips powered up, fast, is incredibly hard. Remember, SpaceX was told Colossus would take 24 months. They had it running in 122 days, then doubled it to 200,000 Nvidia H100s. Anthropic agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion a month to use Colossus. Google builds its own chips, and they still agreed to $920 million a month starting in October, for about 110,000 GPUs. Once both are running, that's over $2 billion a month from two of the companies that are “supposed” to be ahead. Grok 4.7 came out Monday. On the 7 tests xAI put out, it beat OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol on 5 of them. Sol still leads the other 2. Artificial Analysis had Grok at 46 and Sol at 47… only a one point difference. Grok is $2 in and $6 out per million tokens. Sol is $4 and $20. A 3-year-old company is about to take the lead. The companies with the head start are already renting its computers. And soon all these AI companies are going to be shitting their pants, shocked at how fast SpaceXAI caught up and left them in the dust.
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1. We will keep accelerating. Our AI efforts are only 3 years old, vs 6 and 10 years old for Anthropic and OpenAI. If our second derivative remains strong, SpaceX will reach pole position in about 6 months. 2. Once you far exceed the caliber of intelligence needed for a class of tasks, additional intelligence is pointless. You don’t need (and it would be cruel to put) Newton-level intelligence in your toaster! 3. Hardware is hard. Bringing massive compute online rapidly is incredibly difficult. SpaceX has demonstrated exceptional ability in this regard and will only get better.
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