2026, day 261 Good morning from Australia - and a REALLY 2026 day so far today…more war - but when(?), AI warfare, energy in focus,…. and ‘First newts, now bats: Piddington migrant camp dealt another blow’. GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥 ‘The era of AI warfare has arrived’ (FT); ‘OpenAI discloses new ‘concerning’ model behaviour’ (FT); ‘Trump tells Axios he's approaching major crossroads in Iran war’ (Axios) - “I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them [the Iranian regime] or do I not? It's a big decision. Anything could happen with me."; ‘Iranian Revolutionary Guards Navy says it struck oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz’ (ToI); ‘Trump administration approves $24bn sale of F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia’ (FT); ‘The New Offensive Raising Oil Prices and Complicating Trump’s Iran War’ (WSJ); ‘US investigating Iran ties to cyberattack on energy tankers bound for American ports’ (WSJ); ‘China presses Iran to help rein in Houthis after Saudi appeal, sources say’ (Reuters); ‘Russia and China veto US proposal for UN experts to keep monitoring sanctions on Iran’ (AP); ‘Iran war puts future US military presence in Middle East in question’ (The Hill); ‘Ghalibaf’s maths missile at Trump decoded: Is Iran fixing US interest rates?’ (AJ); ‘Trump’s pressure on NATO is reshaping Europe’s defenses. Will it break the alliance?’ (Reuters); ‘Is NATO ready to fight? The Ukraine war is raising doubts among military analysts’ (Reuters); ‘Russian plans include strikes against Ukraine’s allies: Tusk’ (AFP); ‘Russia says new US sanctions, if signed by Trump, would make Ukraine peace deal harder’ (Reuters); ‘Trump says progress made toward establishing US Army base in Poland’ (Reuters); ‘Carney lays out case for deeper alliance between Canada and the EU’ (Globe & Mail); ‘A European alliance deserves more seriousness than Carney's treated it with’ (National Post); ‘Carney’s ‘meaningless’ EU offer unravels’ (Telegraph); ‘Canada applies to join Europe-led military partnership for Northern Seas’ (Euractiv); ‘China, US may unveil measures to boost military ties when Xi visits Washington’ (SCMP); GEOECONOMICS: 🌍 ✈️ ⛴️ 🚛 ‘China Stockpiled Oil, and Now It Could Dominate the Energy Landscape’ (NYT); ‘European leaders rush to counter looming diesel price surge as Saudi pipeline attacked’ (Euronews); ‘Is Fuel-Export Ban Trump’s Last Option to Ease Prices? How It Could Work’ (WSJ); ‘While Canada fights Trump, Mexico is preparing to eat our lunch’ (National Post); ‘US trade chief pressed Brazil to review Anglo American nickel sale to China’ (SCMP); ‘US Said to Delay Excess Capacity Tariffs Until After Xi Summit’ (BBG); ‘Japan, US in talks to build chip factory as part of tariff deal’ (Nikkei Asia) - “Total value of project could reach $19bn; GlobalFoundries to operate new plant”; POLITICS: 🗳️ ‘Farage’s mega-donors mask the wider threats to British democracy’ (FT); ‘Ten shades of Putin: Russia votes in first Duma election since Ukraine invasion’ (Ynet); MARKETS: 📈 ‘Turkish authorities rush to stem fallout from stock market scandal’ (FT); ‘Trump Says He Backs Warsh After Central Bank Raised Interest Rates’ (WSJ); ‘Yen's BOJ Day Comes With Many Lines-in-the-Sand’ (BBG); ‘Britain is now a global outlier on interest rates’ (Telegraph); ‘Wall Street warns trading boom is losing steam’ (FT); ‘Rising Rates Will Make Private Equity’s Bad Year a Lot Worse’ (WSJ); ‘Crypto shifts focus to Trump regulators after coming up short in Senate’ (The Hill)