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Pumponomics
@ThePumponomics
unemployed dad of 3. crypto class of 2017. documenting this cycle trade by trade.
Joined May 2018
566 Following    25.4K Followers
bought about $1.6m of pumpfun. also on fomo. 3x the size of the uni buy, might be a little aggressive but here's why pump does about the same revenue as hyperliquid. last 30 days was 65m vs 71m, and some weeks pump is ahead. lifetime revenue, pump passed hyperliquid in august. hyperliquid trades around 20b. pump trades around 2b. that's roughly 3x annualized revenue vs 23x, a 8-10x discount. why though? two things, and answer is probably both. people don't trust memes as a real business, even after pump survived a full bear market and a year of "memes were a one time thing." and there's a trust gap on the 2 teams. call it a jeff premium or a pump discount, same result this bet is that gap closes. not that pump trades at hyperliquid's multiple, just that it stops trading at 1/10 of it. the last 12 months were supposed to be the worst part of the cycle for memes and pump still printed. if btc goes up and majors go up, wealth effect trickles into risk appetite and onchain, and pump's core business gets better at exactly the moment the multiple should expand. and the team is not sitting still. mid october they turned on perps in the app through hyperliquid builder codes. fomo did it too so it's not unique, but for pump it keeps people in the ecosystem. when onchain is dead, which it has been, the same degens flip to 40x btc without leaving the app and pump takes a cut. when onchain comes back they're already there. most meme guys were never going to move money to hyperliquid and trade perps. now it's one tap they're also the only public facing crypto company i can think of that is aggressively trying to acquire customers. giveaways, trading rewards, paying people to call out coins. people hate this. they think the wrong people get paid. maybe…but they've decided growth comes first and they're willing to give back a ton of revenue to get it. could they spread of rewards be better? yea for sure. hopefully it improves over time. i don't need it to be perfect, i need it to be aggressive to fuel growth, and it is now, on the hate the platform gets, which is at an all time high. most of it comes back to one thing, they said airdrop and haven't delivered. people took that personally, and also lost money on memes and took that personally too. so that means the pump hate is personal, and emotions like this have no place when you’re trying to make money investing. meanwhile 90% of leveraged traders lose money and hyperliquid gets none of this hate, partially because hyperliquid airdropped and made people rich. people like the team, but it’s the same product category, same losers, but the optics are diff. if pump had airdropped it'd be the greatest company in crypto and every sin forgiven the funny part about airdrops is i can think of two in history that actually changed lives, uniswap and hyperliquid. that's it. and no guarantee anyone would've held. most would've dumped it day one. i don't think the hate is bearish btw. in crypto, the worst thing that can happen is nobody talks about you. pump is the biggest lightning rod coin i've ever seen with this much mindshare, more personal than sol ever got. when sol ran the haters rage shorted it the whole way. pump did a 4 or 5x off the bottom a few months ago and we saw the same thing. next run i expect it bigger. chart wise it's a massive cup on the market cap pair with a handle forming now. weekly bear div on the usd pair might not be done, could go lower, but that probably needs btc materially lower and that's not my base case leave your emotions at the door. remember why all of are us are here. do you want to go on a personal crusade “to be right” or do you want to make money?
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