$BTC 📈 Price continues to test the weekly VWAP, but buyers have yet to show enough aggression to push above it. Earlier, fresh shorts entered. As downside momentum stalled, shorts began covering, helping drive the latest bounce alongside a little spot buying. Now liquidity is building above the recent highs. Those intraday highs are poor, leaving unfinished business to the upside. If price reaches that liquidity, I’ll look for intent: rising OI alongside spot buying. Without that confirmation, a move above the highs could be a liquidity sweep rather than a sustained breakout, with price then vulnerable to a rotation back toward the current lows. The upside auction still looks incomplete as of now - there is currently no short for me at the weekly VWAP without a breakout attempt first. Only then will I receive the information I'm looking for..

GM ☕️ A major retest is underway on the $BTC chart👀 Price is testing the newly broken Range High - a key level where bulls can show real strength and defend the breakout! It’s happening pre-NY open, so I’m not especially interested in trading it. We’re currently watching the OrderFlow in the open Discord for signs of strength that could confirm a long. Let's see...

$BTC 📈 No weakness in price action or OrderFlow, so no new short for now. Price is trading firmly above the range high after breaking the HTF bearish market structure with intent! My next key levels come from the previous range value area. I’m pausing spot accumulation here with 30% of my intended size still unfilled. I’ll add the remainder manually on a pullback - will update you here as well! My latest long also hit full TP after the range-high sweep. I’m still holding long exposure from much lower, so there’s no reason to get greedy.

$BTC OrderFlow 📊 Price is sitting at a crucial HTF support (rVAH) while OrderFlow shows aggressive shorts continue piling in, with nothing to show for it. Sellers are pressing. Price isn’t going lower (for now). 👉 Bullish absorption at key support ✅

$BTC OrderFlow: In-Depth Update 📊 Let’s recap what happened this week, and what we can expect next week 👇 There’s a lot to learn from this one… And none of this is hindsight analysis. Go back and check the charts; I’ll also link the original posts alongside the relevant quotes. 1⃣ What happened last week? At the beginning of the week, price moved lower and tested the crucial rVAH level we had been discussing for several days prior. We never try to predict exactly what price will do when it reaches one of our levels. We prepare for it, mark it on our charts and set an alert. Sept. 11: "for now the overall range VAH remains THE key support for me. [...] Bulls need to defend ~75K USD!" Price hits our key level that we planned for well in advance, and instead of predicting the future outcome we now switch to the OrderFlow and closely watch the positioning and how price reacts around our key level of interest - are there any indications that this level is actually support? The OrderFlow showed: "fresh shorts opening into the level without producing any meaningful downside - a sign of bullish absorption. [...] OI remains elevated, which means those shorts are still exposed! That’s exactly the type of response we want to see at support." Shorts were selling into the level, yet price refused to break below it - that was my confirmation that the level actually can be called support - no prediction, reaction! The next thing we needed to see was genuine buying intent: enough demand to trap those shorts in losing positions and force them to cover, adding further fuel to a move higher. I should add that the volatility surrounding the CLARITY Act vote and the FOMC made lower-time-frame execution extremely difficult for me. In the end, however, we entered the trade once those events had passed and price continued to hold above our key level with shorts clearly at risk. The entire setup and execution were discussed live in the open Discord at the time. On Friday, we finally saw spot buyers step in, new long positions open, and price reward that aggression. Suddenly, everyone who had sold into the range VAH was trapped in a losing position. The bulls had taken control, and price confirmed it. We didn’t predict this move - we anticipated it based on the OrderFlow at our VERY key level. We reclaimed several key levels, including the crVAL and crPOC, and are now trading above the crVAH. 2⃣ What are we seeing right now? Price continues to trade above the current range VAH, yet we’re once again seeing new short positions open on Binance on the weeknd. For now, shorts remain the more popular side of the trade - the crowded trade! Despite that positioning, sellers have failed to produce any meaningful result thus far. And looking at open interest since the bounce began, we still haven’t seen a major reset. That tells us there are shorts continuing to hold underwater positions, and you don’t need to be a genius to take a good guess where their stop-losses are clustering. 👀 3⃣ What can we expect next week? Price is currently trading above key value levels. The short side remains crowded and underwater, and we still haven’t seen a significant reset in open interest. More importantly, this wasn’t simply a short-liquidation rally. The move showed genuine intent, supported by spot buying and new long positions opening. Now, imagine you opened a short today, or at any point earlier in the week. Where would you place your stop-loss? Most likely, just above the major swing high around $83K. As long as price remains below that level, the higher-time-frame bearish structure stays intact. A clean break above it, however, could have major implications for price action over the coming months. Considering a short here is absolutely not unreasonable, especially with price trading so close to that higher-time-frame invalidation level. But given the current OrderFlow and price action, I now see a strong chance of that swing high being broken in the coming week. Shorts have repeatedly failed to produce meaningful downside, while price continues to hold above key support. As long as price remains above the crVAH around $79.5K, my base case for next week is: - Another push higher - Underwater shorts being forced out (watch for OI to reset) - A break in the higher-time-frame bearish market structure - Traders flipping max bullish and new longs chasing the move (no prediction, but expectation - we will confirm this live with the OrderFlow) - Only then, a larger move lower to rebalance the inefficiencies left behind If price breaks the higher-time-frame bearish structure, there is a strong chance that Bitcoin’s low is already in. In that scenario, a subsequent retracement could present another major buying opportunity. The key zones I’ll be watching if this scenario develops will be covered in a separate post. 👉 The short version: Shorts remain popular, crowded, and trapped. As long as Bitcoin holds above the crVAH near $79.5K, I favor another push higher, potentially sweeping the $83K high and forcing crowded shorts out (OI reset). Lose that support, and the bullish scenario weakens. A failed breakout above that HTF high (SFP or Failed Auction) with OrderFlow confirming trapped longs, would then trigger a new short position for me. What are you expecting in the week ahead? 🤔