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transLog1c
@TransLog1c
288 Following    180 Followers
$NOK $CIEN $MRVL This news is a great example of what this upgrade cycle could look like. I think the market may still be underestimating the second leg of the coherent optics cycle. Most of the attention today is on new Scale-Across builds from hyperscalers and neoclouds. But there is also a large installed base of existing cloud and carrier infrastructure that is entering a major upgrade cycle. We are already seeing this inside data centers. 800G is going through a broad deployment cycle, and this is not only about newly built AI data centers. Hyperscalers are also upgrading older cloud infrastructure from 400G to 800G, with 1.6T coming next. The same logic should eventually play out in DCI, metro and backbone networks. Carriers already have a huge installed base of 100G/200G/400G coherent systems that will need to migrate toward 800G and 1.6T over time. The fiber is already in the ground. The next capex cycle is increasingly about upgrading the active layer coherent optics, transponders, router line cards, ROADMs and optical line systems. Very rough math suggests the existing DCI installed base could represent $15–25B of historical equipment value, with refresh alone potentially supporting a $3–5B annual market over time. Then you layer new AI Scale across demand on top. That starts to look less like a 1–2 year AI DCI cycle and more like a broader generational upgrade of the global optical transport network. Telxius deploying Nokia 800G ZR/ZR+ across Europe, the US and LatAm is a good example of that trend starting to move into traditional carrier networks as well.
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