Some conversations are uncomfortable for ten minutes.
Avoiding them can make you uncomfortable for ten years.
Say what you need to say while you can still say it kindly.
WYCKOFF CLIFF NOTES 🧵👇
Most traders don’t struggle because they lack tools. They struggle because they don’t know which evidence matters.
They memorize the picture, name every event, then try to make live price fit something they already studied.
Start simpler.
Who is in control? Is that control getting stronger or weaker? What did price just try to do, and did it succeed?
Technical analysis is detective work. The labels are only shorthand. The footprints are the point.
1/8
It might take 1 year. It might take 2 years. It might take 3 years.
But eventually, you're going to make it
It won't matter if it takes 4 or 5 years once you make it, so whatever you do
Don't give up!!
Decided to put my money where my mouth is today and started buying $STRC.
Not my normal type of trade, but the setup finally got interesting enough for me.
At these prices, you’re not just betting on some wild equity rip. You’re buying an instrument paying around 11-12% on par, but because it’s trading well below par, your yield on cost can be closer to the mid-teens depending on your entry.
And then if it simply works its way back toward 99-100, that’s the upside kicker.
So the bet is pretty simple for me, I don’t think Strategy built this whole structure with no plan for a brutal BTC drawdown, and I have a hard time believing they just let STRC stay permanently broken.
Could I be wrong? Of course. Maybe they’re dumber than I think. Maybe the stress is worse than I think. This is not some risk-free “free yield” trade.
But some of this move has the look of forced selling to me. Real concern, overleveraged holders getting shaken out, maybe some people pressing it lower. I don’t know the margin rules across every venue, but it has that smell.
So I’m treating it more like an option than a normal position.
Anything I put in, I’m willing to lose. I started with roughly half of what I’m willing to commit, and if it gets uglier, I may add the rest.
Not advice. Just what I’m doing.
Sometimes the trade is simply, I don’t think they’re that dumb. If I’m wrong, I’ll pay for the lesson it teaches me.