“A bear market is time not price.” Absolutely critical piece of analysis from Jim Bianco @biancoresearch Full episode here: YT: Apple: Spotify:

Is it time to buy bonds? Jim Bianco explains why he thinks it is. Full episode with @biancoresearch below or here: YT: Apple: Spotify:

🚨NEW EPISODE🚨with JIM BIANCO @biancoresearch Jim outlines why he is making a major shift, following his correct 6 year bearish bonds call, to be constructive long bonds. "I'm getting off of my bearish position & going long bonds." We also hit: - why rates have surged - why it hasn't hit stocks more - why the Fed still isn't credible under Warsh...yet - the risk of higher yields – inc from France, UK, Japan - but nonetheless why long bonds are now attractive - 60/40 still works - not because of a hedge, but due to yield - bullish gold & crypto...with caveats - a bear market is time not price BUY BONDS: "I'm getting off of my bearish position & going long bonds. Now you're right, I'm not pounding the table that they're a buy because they're going to rally so yields fall – I'm not talking about the economy falling or the inflation situation turning around – but now you're finally getting paid for the risk appropriately.” GROWTH: “The economy's so strong…and nominal growth has been expanding and interest rates should be expanding. So I don't see interest rates as being way out of hand or that they're problematic. I see them as following the appropriate fair value higher right now, and that's why I think that they're no longer expensive” YIELD LEVELS: “I think the way I would look at it, if the bond market is offering me mid 5% yields, I want to start getting in. If it wants to offer me high 5% yields, I want to get in more. If it gets to 6%, I want to get in even more. They were too expensive for six years. That expensiveness is gone. I wouldn't go as far as call them cheap, but at least we've got this reflected. A 4% or low four yield, which we had maybe three or four months ago, did not reflect that. It does now. So that's priced into the market and that's why I would want to start this shift towards the bond market.” BEAR MARKET IS TIME NOT PRICE: “A bear market is time, not price. And what I mean by that is everybody says stock market always comes back. It does. But is it going to be 2000 where the market peaks and it comes back in 13 years to a new all-time high? Or is it going to be 2020 during COVID where the market peaks and goes down and in five months it makes a new all-time high? The market always comes back – but what if it takes 13 years?” 60/40: “So 60 / 40 was originally set up on that stocks and bonds would move in opposite directions. That was under the guise that there was no inflation. That's broken. But 60 / 40 as a set of numbers, I still think works. Bonds now have a place in your portfolio, not because they're a hedge against stocks going up or down, but because they've got a yield.” US DEBT PROBLEM OVERSTATED: “The debt problem itself is a bit overstated. If you look at the total level of debt, and you add in not just government debt, but you add in all private sector debt and all loans, it's 364% of gross domestic product in US, three and a half times the debt of the size of the economy. 20 years ago in 2006, it was 362%. It's exactly the same number as it was 20 years ago. What's changed is the mix has been much more government debt and private sector has been deleveraging since the financial crisis by reducing the level of debt that they have. That mix is more the concern than it is the level of debt. So I don't think that we're choking on debt in the United States yet.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:45 Bonds fair value 5:01 Why rates have surged 8:50 Fed still not credible 15:48 Warsh Fed unpacked 23:00 Bessent’s interventions 27:27 Risk of higher yields 29:40 Risk from foreign yields 32:24 High rates for stocks 36:37 Rise of retail traders 40:45 Debt problem overstated 44:40 Gold - constructive but disappointed 45:44 Bull on crypto 50:33 60/40 - still works but for new reasons 53:01 Start to BUY bonds 54:51 Bear Mkt is Time Not Price

@dee_bosa new show was always going to be a must-watch - & she hasn’t disappointed with @SatyaNadella as her first guest! Congrats Dee. Can’t wait for the daily show to start soon. You can subscribe here:

This was a particularly great episode of @TheCompoundNews with @Downtown @michaelbatnick @DivesTech @fundstrat all on great form (I need to get to Future Proof one year!) - but extra kudos to Tom who stuck his neck out and called the rally we’ve seen since Fed meeting.

🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 with Chairman of @IBKR Thomas Peterffy: Worth over $100bn, he reveals the asset he is buying as the ultimate hedge - LAND. "If these things happen that I'm worried about, then I think land is the logical asset." AI RACE: "Slowing down? I mean, it's a very difficult thing because China is not going to slow down. So this is basically a competition between the two hemispheres and I'm not in favour of slowing down. I would like us to win." AI OPTIMISM: "Even if the frontier models would stop progressing at this moment, there are so many open source models all over the place and adapting them by all the other companies will result in huge increases in earnings and productivity. So I'm basically very optimistic." FED AND YIELDS: "Well, I think the Fed will probably raise rates, although as I said, I would not be in favour of that, but they will have to do it just to demonstrate that they are independent." HUGE PREDICTION MARKETS OPPORTUNITY: "These markets are going to become huge in my view. In the fullness of time, the majority of our earnings will be derived from prediction markets." OWN LAND: Revealing more of is thinking around buying land, he reflects on his upbringing in communist Hungary, when everyone's assets were seized. "So I think that the same thing may happen in America. And that is the reason that I am buying land so that after the democratic socialists take everything over and they ruin all the stuff, they will eventually find out that it doesn't work and they will have to go back to protecting people's private property and return the assets they can return. And the only assets they will be able to return will be rural land." Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:45 IBKR recent earnings 6:35 Interest rate exposure 9:10 Fed will hike…sadly 11:00 Optimistic about AI 13:10 But some AI overinvestment 14:45 US can’t slow down 17:10 Long path to prediction markets 22:30 HUGE opportunity of prediction markets 28:41 The risk from leverage 32:26 AI boosts IBKR 36:10 New bank trust charter 40:35 Buy Land – ultimate protection 45:08 Conclusion – have a plan

🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 60 minutes with JAMIE DIMON - wouldn't buy long bonds or SP500 here - "risks are bigger than people think" - "I want @AndyBurnham to succeed", but Banks Levy is "wrong" - Leadership masterclass - breaking bureaucracy; overcoming insecurity; loneliness at top STOCK MARKET: "In general would I be a buyer at this price? No." BUYER OF LONG DATED BONDS? “Personally, no. I would not be a buyer and part of it is interest rates. I mean even if inflation was 2%, the 10-year bond should probably be at 4-4.5%. And the short rate should be at 3.25-3.5%. And they're almost there today. So I don't understand what the upside is, even if you think inflation going to go to 2%. But being an economic historian, I can't take out of my mind what happened after the great recession of 74. Deficits were less…And it climbed from 3.5% to 5% to 7% to 9% to 11%.” ECONOMY/MARKET RISKS: “Make a list of all those really complex long-term geopolitical tectonic plates things that affect the market or may not… I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think.” MARCH 2020 NEAR DEATH EXPERIENCE: “So I knew at that point in time that there might be goodbye. Yeah.” And what stood out for you in the life that you'd led in that moment? “I remember I spoke to my wife and I told her to call their company and tell them exactly what's happening so they can do what they got to do. But the good news is I didn't have any great regrets. I would be leaving behind great children, great wife, great company. I did the best I can. Of course I made mistakes. But fortunately I recovered from all that.” ON ANDY BURNHAM: “I want him to succeed. I want to see the UK thrive. I want London to succeed. But the UK, like everybody else and like my own country…you need a strong economy to do that. So the new Chancellor going to need good policies that actually cause growth. So I'm praying that they get policy right and government after government get it wrong.” ON BANKS LEVY: “I have always thought it was wrong. JP Morgan did not damage the UK and I called the Chancellor at the time. We're a great citizen there. We hire people there. We want to be bigger there. We train people there. We hire veterans there. All of our people get medical and all that stuff like that. And I just thought it was a lack of principle to punish a company that had nothing to do with the crisis. And it's still there seventeen years later. Is that fair to a shareholder? I mean, it may sound great, 'tax the banks', but it's $5 billion that my shareholder's paid on that extra tax. And I just think things like that have adverse consequences.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:14 As good as it gets environment 3:08 Risks bigger than people expect 4:28 Resilience despite Iran 9:21 Would not buy bonds here 12:50 AI risk & opportunity 15:16 Not buyer of SP500 here 16:02 SpaceX valuation 17:45 Lessons from Financial Crisis 19:09 Don’t expect success 21:00 Loneliness of leadership 23:25 Commitment to NYC @NYCMayor 25:03 I want @AndyBurnham to succeed 26:40 UK Banks Levy is wrong 29:14 Fighting bureaucracy 33:20 Character most important trait 35:26 Insecurity ruins leaders 39:46 Success is not just your own 43:15 Politics is a very tough game 47:55 Dimon’s founder-like impact & succession 51:30 Near death experience 53:05 Family 56:34 Learn, learn, learn – from history & people @jpmorgan @Chase @chase_uk @JPMorganAM