Kit Winder, CFA
@WinderKit
Senior Equity Analyst at ByteTree | CFA Charterholder | Focused on quality investing | Views my own, not investment advice.
483 Following 1K Followers
Big week ahead for Salesforce $CRM.
It reports earnings next Weds, on the cusp of its 200-day moving average.
Since bouncing off its 15yr trend line (see below), it's up 33% in 8 weeks. Now it is caught between contradictory MA's
You could argue that the last time it failed to break above the long-term MA, it fell 40% in short order.
But the last time it succeeded, it doubled in a year...
Make or break?
Show more
Salesforce $CRM back down to its 15yr trend.
Last time it tripled in the next 2 years...
US 30-year #bond# yields just hit 5.3% (📈👇) — a level not seen since 2004.
Meanwhile, 30-year inflation expectations are still pricing in just 2.2%, despite actual inflation averaging 4.1% since 2020. Something doesn't add up.
#Gold# might be telling the story that TIPS aren't.
In this week's Multi-Asset Investor, @AtlasPulse ask: has gold become the risk-free rate? Article link in first reply 👇
Show more
Signs of life at $CPRT?
Not hard to see why Copart shares have had a rough few years...
Sales growth and ROIC both declined steadily since 2021.
But a new (old) CEO has brought fresh hope, and Copart is up +18% from its lows...
Show more
Wingstop -9% today.
Growth stocks like growth.
$WING 1Y revenue growth vs share price:
Nike's $NKE dividend yield is back above 4%
(While the S&P $SPY pays less than 1%).
Highest level since 1985, and the dividend has grown 15% per year since then.
And I'm pretty sure Tiger's chip will be shown at The Masters every year until the world literally ends.
Show more
AppLovin $APP
It's almost like the sales multiple correlates with sales growth...
Oh, we're back to this, are we?
$SNDK up 80% in 13 trading days, following a 57% decline in 27 (still 25% below its peak).
Annualised volatility is now 115% (the S&P $SPY is 13%).
Show more
Nice work from the FT, quantifying the scale of the Leo Aschenwhatever loss in the history of trading losses...
Turns out, pretty big.
The S&P 500's dividend yield has fallen to 0.93%.
The last time it was lower? November 1998.
Meanwhile, you can get 4.7% on the US 10-year Treasury.
$SPY $VOO
$UBER accelerates drone delivery deployment.
I've known and admired @Keller for what he's built for years - his product has been battle-tested in the most challenging of circumstances. Drone delivery @UberEats promises to take what has been a delightful experience to truly magical again. Now is the time to scale (production, network, unit costs) - something we're pretty good at 💪!!
Show more
The Magnificent 7 are up just 4% this year. Small caps? 23.6%.
The World Index just hit a new all-time high — and it's not the usual suspects driving it. We call it "Spreading the Love".
📈Meanwhile, #EmergingMarkets# are slumping (ex-Korea/Japan tech), and #Utilities# keep sliding — possibly on doubts about AI's electricity appetite. Global growth scare, or noise?
This week's Global Trends update is free to read as always - link in reply👇
$NVDA $AAPL $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN
Show more
Wingstop $WING +7% today.
Revenue growth has slowed for six quarters in a row, but has the stock adjusted enough?
It's gone from 26x sales, to 6x, and from 0.5% FCF yield, to 2.5%.
Still far from cheap, but a lot better than it was...
Show more
$NU Bank is a leading Latin American digital bank.
Its book value growth is extreme - 45% over the last 12 months. And the rate of book value growth has improved steadily over the past four years...
+12% on Friday, as profits surpassed $1 billion.
Show more
One of our earliest notes in ByteTree Quality.
It is one that we have removed the paywall from, so anyone can read it.
$NESN
I never really paid attention to Reddit $RDDT
Until I saw that ROIC inflection.
+14% today on the S&P inclusion news.
Wingstop $WING +7% today.
Revenue growth has slowed for six quarters in a row, but has the stock adjusted enough?
It's gone from 26x sales, to 6x, and from 0.5% FCF yield, to 2.5%.
Still far from cheap, but a lot better than it was...
Show more
ByteTree Quality is ready. It’s a fabulous and resilient portfolio for the armchair investor.
Sandisk $SNDK has shot up 60% in just a few days.
Bear market bounce, or continuation of the trend?
The last month marked a significant milestone as we added our 25th and final stock to the Quality portfolio.
Having published 175,000 words of research on these companies and written many more on companies that didn’t make the cut, we are proud of the result.
Company selection was paramount, combined with timely entry points. All of our companies have undergone a correction, in some cases major corrections, making these attractive times to buy.
We balanced geographic and industry exposure, resulting in a diversified portfolio of high-quality companies acquired at low valuations.
Show more
They say that share prices follow cash flows...
But it's not always a perfect relationship.
Take Nestlé.
The price (black line) did follow FCF/share growth (bars) very closely for twenty years.
And then in 2020-2025... It got it all wrong. FCF fell for two years before the share price noticed. And by the time cash flows began recovering... the share price fell for another two years. In fact, the share price peaked just as the cash flows began to recover.
It did a Wile E Coyote - twice.
Now, FCF is rising strongly again. Will the old relationship resume?
$NESN
Show more
