Your Money After the Midterms: What a Democratic Congress Means for your Portfolio (ft. Adam Kovacevich)
Cathie Wood: This Is Where Real Opportunity is After The AI Market Crash
MARA HOLDINGS $MARA JUST REPORTED Q3 EARNINGS
- Revenue: $164.2M, missing expectations of $182M 🔴
- EPS: $1.28, beating expectations of -$0.12 🟢
- Adj EBITDA: $857.7M
- Net Income: $632.1M
Key Updates:
- Exaion: $79M four-year GPU-as-a-service contract (over $3B pipeline; approximately $1B targeted for delivery by end of 2027)
- Share Repurchase Authorization: up to $500M after quarter-end
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HERE'S YOUR WOLF SUNDAY PAPER 📰
The Nasdaq fell into a correction, chip stocks had their worst day in six years, and hiring came in at more than double the forecast.
But the equal-weight S&P 500 fell just 1.06%. This was a tech selloff, not a market crash.
Everything you need before Monday's open 🧵
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COSTCO $COST HAS SOLD ITS HOT DOG AND SODA COMBO FOR $1.50 SINCE THE 1980s
Adjusted for inflation, $1.50 in 1985 works out to about $4.37 in 2024 dollars, based on BLS consumer price data.
Former CEO Craig Jelinek recalled co-founder Jim Sinegal telling him, "If you raise the effing hot dog, I will kill you. Figure it out," per Fox Business.
In 2013, Costco switched its soda to Pepsi and kept the price at $1.50. In 2025, it switched back to Coca-Cola.
In 2022, then-CFO Richard Galanti said Costco could hold the price "forever," per Fortune.
In fiscal 2025, Costco sold 245.1 million hot dog and soda combos, per the company.
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ON THIS DAY IN 2022, BINANCE AGREED TO RESCUE FTX. THREE DAYS LATER, FTX WAS BANKRUPT
FTX had been valued at $32 billion earlier that year, with backing from big-name investors like Sequoia and SoftBank.
Then customers rushed to pull their money out, and FTX couldn't pay them.
On November 8, rival Binance signed a non-binding letter of intent to buy it. The next day, Binance walked away after reviewing FTX's finances, citing reports that customer funds had been mishandled.
On November 11, FTX filed for bankruptcy and Sam Bankman-Fried stepped down as CEO.
The final unraveling took about a week.
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GREG ABEL IS PUTTING BERKSHIRE'S CASH TO WORK
In 2025, Warren Buffett's last year as CEO, Berkshire was a net seller of stocks for the third straight year and didn't buy back a single share.
Under Greg Abel, it has turned net buyer.
In his first 9 months as CEO, Berkshire has:
- Bought back $14.4 billion of its own stock
- Bought $11.2 billion more stock than it sold
- Spent $16.2 billion on acquisitions, led by OxyChem and Taylor Morrison
That's about $42 billion of cash put to work.
And despite all that spending, Berkshire’s cash pile still sits at $377.4B, up from $373.3B at the end of 2025.
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BERKSHIRE JUST MADE ITS BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER
Berkshire spent $9.6 billion buying back its own stock in Q3, topping its previous record of $9.3 billion from Q3 2020.
A year ago, it wasn't buying back a single share. Berkshire went six straight quarters without a buyback, from mid-2024 through the end of 2025.
September alone accounted for about $5.4 billion, at an average of $506.64 per Class B share.
Its favorite stock in Q3 was its own: Berkshire spent about four times as much on buybacks as on other companies' shares, buying $2.4 billion of stocks while selling $2.8 billion.
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Elon Musk says SpaceX's Q4 revenue will be up something like 70% from the Q3, and he still sees annualized revenue of about $500 billion in December 2027.
What’s Happening in the AI Trade: Anthropic IPO All-Day Livestream
🇺🇸 THE IRS JUST RAISED THE 0% CAPITAL GAINS BRACKET FOR 2027
If your taxable income stays under these limits, you pay 0% federal tax on long-term gains, per CNBC:
Single: $51,050
Married: $102,100
"Long-term" means you held the investment for more than 1 year.
"Taxable income" is your income after deductions. The standard deduction for 2027:
Single: $16,600
Married: $33,200
So a married couple taking the standard deduction can make about $135,300 in total, gains included, and still pay 0% on those gains.
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DRAFTKINGS $DKNG JUST REPORTED Q3 EARNINGS
- Revenue: $1.33B, missing expectations of $1.4B 🔴
- EPS: -$0.94, missing expectations of -$0.39 🔴
- Adj EPS: -$0.53
FY26 Guidance:
- Revenue: $6.35B-$6.55B, below expectations of $6.67B 🔴
- Adj EBITDA: $175M-$275M
FY27 Guidance:
- Revenue: $7.35B-$7.75B
- Adj EBITDA: $800M-$1.0B
Key Updates:
- Predictions: 1.6M+ customers engaged year-to-date
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IREN $IREN SAYS IT HAS MORE THAN 5GW OF SECURED POWER ACROSS MORE THAN 30,000 ACRES
The platform behind IREN's AI cloud:
Land: more than 30,000 acres
Secured power: more than 5GW
Development pipeline: more than 35GW
Customers: NVIDIA, Microsoft and 13 others
IREN says Horizon 1 went into service for Microsoft with NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status for GB300 NVL72 systems, and Horizons 2 to 4 are in late-stage construction.
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CLOUDFLARE $NET JUST REPORTED Q3 EARNINGS
- Revenue: $782.5M, beating expectations of $739M 🟢
- Adj EPS: $0.38, beating expectations of $0.34 🟢
Q4 Guidance:
- Revenue: $845M-$846M, above expectations of $798M 🟢
- Adj EPS: $0.43, above expectations of $0.38 🟢
- Non-GAAP Operating Income: $156M-$157M
FY26 Guidance:
- Revenue: $2.96B-$2.96B, above expectations of $2.87B 🟢
- Adj EPS: $1.35, above expectations of $1.28 🟢
- Non-GAAP Operating Income: $462M-$463M
Key Updates:
- Annualized Revenue: Crossed $3B
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IREN $IREN JUST REPORTED Q1 EARNINGS
- Revenue: $228M, beating expectations of $221M 🟢
- AI Cloud: $200M
- AI Cloud Segment Gross Margin: 86%
- Adjusted EBITDA: $66M
Key Updates:
- ARR Target: More than $4B fully contracted and funded (targeted for January 2027)
- Revenue Backlog: $20.3B (approximately two-thirds investment-grade)
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LYFT $LYFT JUST REPORTED Q3 EARNINGS
- Revenue: $1.8B, missing expectations of $1.92B 🔴
- Gross Bookings: $5.6B (+17% YoY)
- Active Riders: 31.6M (+10% YoY)
- Rides: 273.5M (+10% YoY)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $203.9M (+47% YoY)
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 3.6% (+70 bps YoY)
Q4 Guidance:
- Gross Bookings: $5.74B-$5.94B
- Adjusted EBITDA: $188M-$213M
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 3.3% to 3.6%
Key Updates:
- Lyft Go: Up to 8% back in Lyft Credits on every ride
- Legal, Tax & Regulatory Reserves: $117.9M impact ($69.1M reduction to revenue)
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APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS $AAOI JUST REPORTED Q3 EARNINGS
- Revenue: $269.9M, beating expectations of $268M 🟢
- Adj EPS: $0.17, beating expectations of $0.14 🟢
- Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 28.7%
- Datacenter: $155.6M (+254% YoY)
Q4 Guidance:
- Revenue: $385M-$420M, below expectations of $427M 🔴
- Adj EPS: $0.48-$0.63, in line with expectations of $0.56 🟡
- Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 29.5%-31%
Key Updates:
- Record revenue: sixth consecutive quarter
- Manufacturing capacity: approaching 330,000 units/month (over 500,000 800G and 1.6 Tb pieces/month by end-2026; over 1 million by end-2027)
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IONQ $IONQ JUST REPORTED Q3 EARNINGS
- Revenue: $173.8M, beating expectations of $142M 🟢
- Adj EPS: -$0.29, beating expectations of -$0.38 🟢
FY26 Guidance:
- Revenue: $505M-$515M, above expectations of $455M 🟢
- Quantum Computing Revenue Growth: 110% YoY
Key Updates:
- DARPA Stage C: potential program value up to $300M
- Remaining Performance Obligations: $1.2B (more than doubled)
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SWEETGREEN $SG JUST REPORTED Q3 EARNINGS
- Revenue: $176.0M, beating expectations of $169M 🟢
- EPS: -$0.26, in line with expectations of -$0.26 🟡
- Same-Store Sales: -6.4%
- Restaurant-Level Margin: 10.4% (-270 bps YoY)
- Adjusted EBITDA: -$6.8M
FY26 Guidance:
- Same-Store Sales: -5.5%
- Restaurant-Level Margin: 11.0%-11.5%
- Adjusted EBITDA: -$23.0M to -$20.0M
Key Updates:
- Net New Restaurants: 3 (vs 6 YoY)
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AIRBNB $ABNB JUST REPORTED Q3 EARNINGS
- Revenue: $4.9B, beating expectations of $4.75B 🟢
- EPS: $3.16, beating expectations of $2.85 🟢
- Gross Booking Value: $27.7B (+21% YoY)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $2.5B (+22% YoY)
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 52% (+200 bps YoY)
Q4 Guidance:
- Revenue: $3.22B-$3.28B, above expectations of $3.16B 🟢
- GBV Growth: Mid-teens YoY
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin: Down slightly YoY
Key Updates:
- AI Products: 50+ shipped (nearly 70% more YoY)
- Free Housing Funding: $500M over five years (1M free housing nights annually)
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