🚨 Big one today. FOMC decision at 2PM ET, presser at 2:30. Here's my thesis: Warsh has held at his last two FOMCs and refused to give any forward guidance (his approach for the new Fed). No guidance definitely pinned him in a corner. Without any Fed insight the bond market is now pricing in a 92% chance of hiking. But... Core CPI just hit 2.4% YoY, lowest since March 2021! Headline CPI is stuck at 3.4% purely on energy, diesel near $6/gal off the Iran conflict, driven by a supply shock and not demand pull. A hike doesn't fix a supply shock. It doesn't reopen Hormuz either. If the Fed hikes into a 5yr low on core, driven by oil he can't control, it looks reactive. If they hold after the market priced in near certainty, and bonds throw a tantrum. Zero guidance turned a normal meeting into a coin flip with consequences either way. In terms of the market, we are actually at a yearly low of stocks making 52-week highs vs 52-week lows, even lower than March of this year. SPY and a few Mags look super coiled in descending channels leading up to this Fed decision. I would not be surprised to see a big short-term move out of this to the upside in the following week or two, especially when sentiment is this weak. There is fear surrounding both sides of the Fed decision and I think the pain trade is actually to the upside now, regardless of what noise is generated today.