Alpha | 阿尔法
@alpha101xyz
AI Stocks | Semis | Macro
Hedge Fund Analyst & Data Scientist
Turning FOMO into rules: momentum, crowding, risk
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Cherish 2026.
This is the year earnings acceleration peaks.
S&P 500 = EPS × P/E.
P/E is compressing as hyperscaler FCF getting crushed by record CAPEX.
The only thing still propping up stocks is accelerating EPS growth — and that acceleration is already expected to slow in 2027.
This entire move has been a straight wealth transfer from a handful of hyperscalers to their suppliers. AI revenue simply won’t ramp fast enough to close the gap.
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Goldman Sachs - Hyperscaler earnings multiples have declined alongside surging FCF multiples; in addition, investors are increasingly focused on the trajectory of AI spending by the rest of corporate America and the degree to which that spending is generating a return.
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Goldman Sachs - Hyperscaler earnings multiples have declined alongside surging FCF multiples; in addition, investors are increasingly focused on the trajectory of AI spending by the rest of corporate America and the degree to which that spending is generating a return.
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Goldman Sachs - Our equity analysts believe that the hyperscalers’ 2026 capex budgets are mostly set while 2027 budgets are in early planning stages. Likewise, the pattern of capex estimate revisions during the last few years suggests estimates will be less volatile in the second half of 2026 than they were in the first half of the year, with revisions to 2027 estimates more likely as we near the turn of the calendar year. One potential exception is MSFT, which has its fiscal year ending this quarter.
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Goldman Sachs - Our equity analysts believe that the hyperscalers’ 2026 capex budgets are mostly set while 2027 budgets are in early planning stages. Likewise, the pattern of capex estimate revisions during the last few years suggests estimates will be less volatile in the second half of 2026 than they were in the first half of the year, with revisions to 2027 estimates more likely as we near the turn of the calendar year. One potential exception is MSFT, which has its fiscal year ending this quarter.
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