Amjad Masad(@amasad):Very few things in nature are true long-term exponentials. Most follow S-curves. I saw this when I worked at Facebook. What looked like clean exponential growth was actually a series of overlapping S-curves, each driven by technological breakthroughs and/or adoption waves. AI is probably the same. That doesn’t mean progress will have to slow down, but sustained exponential growth isn’t automatic either.

2026.11.09 17:58

Very few things in nature are true long-term exponentials. Most follow S-curves. I saw this when I worked at Facebook. What looked like clean exponential growth was actually a series of overlapping S-curves, each driven by technological breakthroughs and/or adoption waves. AI is probably the same. That doesn’t mean progress will have to slow down, but sustained exponential growth isn’t automatic either.