The odds that bitcoin holds $78,000 today jumped from 70% to 82.5% in a single day. US crypto financials closed lower across the board. On Polymarket, with settlement at noon ET today: bitcoin above $78,000 is priced at 82.5%. Above $80,000, just 16.5%. A day ago those same two markets read 70.0% and 24.5%. Conviction that $78,000 holds gained 12.5 points. The bet on a move through $80,000 lost 8. At yesterday's close, 13 of the 21 crypto names in the radar pool finished green — yet the group was down 1.75% market-cap weighted. Miners and compute ran: WULF +8.18%, HUT +6.35%, CLSK +6.23%, MARA +4.60%. Financials and treasury names fell: CRCL −5.75%, MSTR −4.40%, HOOD −3.91%, COIN −3.09%. That 82.5% is the market trusting today, and only today. Same question further out: 68.5% for tomorrow, 63.5% for Friday. August core CPI lands tomorrow morning ET — the hotter the print, the firmer the case for a Fed hike, and the less reason to hold an asset that pays no yield. NFA.