Andrew Schmitt (@aschmitt)

2026.08.28 17:31

Coherent lite didn't lose 1.6T generation because of power. It lost because of price, supply chain risk, and because it didn't solve a problem. Realistically it only wins in the future for spans that IMDD can't close, which at 3.2T generation is not a lot, except for Google TPUv9 OCS architecture where for reasons we don't have visibility to that they need it. It's also notable that Google (who presented this data below) was making OFC presentations in 2022 that 1.6T at 2km would not work - which is why we ended up with 800G LR1 in the OIF that no one ever used. That little purple point at the bottom right is based on parts that won't see volume production.