Ben Moll(@ben_moll):Interesting question: Who is taking the other side in a P(doom) bet? What Jakob is saying: if we ever see liquid prediction markets with implied P(doom) substantially >0 (after adjusting for fees etc), THEN that’s when we should be really worried because the counterparty is likely AI

Ben Moll

@ben_moll

Sir John Hicks Professor of Economics, @LSEecon. Macroeconomics with distribution(s). Coeditor of the American Economic Review.

Joined January 2019

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Ben Moll@ben_moll

2026.09.12 07:18

Interesting question: Who is taking the other side in a P(doom) bet? What Jakob is saying: if we ever see liquid prediction markets with implied P(doom) substantially >0 (after adjusting for fees etc), THEN that’s when we should be really worried because the counterparty is likely AI