Bluekurtic Market Insights
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This time, bulls went into hibernation. AAII bullish sentiment fell to just 28.8% this week, even with the S&P 500 near its highs.
$SPX was higher 1 month later 100% of the time, with a 3.2% median gain. Bulls, now's the time to wake up.
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Active managers went from levered to their teeth to just gritting them. NAAIM Exposure Index fell from 100+ to below 75.
This is bullish for the S&P 500. Sidelined cash from managers fed up with the chop could fuel the next leg higher.
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Not to pour cold water on a green day, but a reminder that tomorrow is triple witching day with over $2 trillion in delta notional options expiring.
Since 2012, the S&P 500 $SPX fell on the day in 12 of 14 cases. Following five trading days have also been challenging.
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This time, bulls went into hibernation. AAII bullish sentiment fell to just 28.8% this week, even with the S&P 500 near its highs.
$SPX was higher 1 month later 100% of the time, with a 3.2% median gain. Bulls, now's the time to wake up.
Show more
For the first time since 2007, the 10-year Treasury yield closed above 5%. Breaks above major psychological yield thresholds have often coincided with near-term volatility for the S&P 500.
Interestingly, 7 of these 8 signals occurred in midterm years.
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has concluded his FOMC press conference.
The S&P 500 $SPX is down 0.4% as markets digest the 25 bps rate hike and Warsh’s message that inflation remains the primary concern.
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It’s almost ironic that the S&P 500 fell to a 30 day low right before today’s potential Fed hike. Since this AI driven bull market began, this level often marked a near term inflection point.
Up or down post FOMC, the boring days may finally be over for good. $SPX
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$DVA is up another 1.5% today, validating its 3 day positivity rate. Since we published it 2 days ago, $DVA gained 2.4% while $SPY fell 0.9%.
This is the edge we try to provide by backing technical breakouts with quantitative overlay. Start your Premium Plus free trial today.
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The S&P 500 $SPY is down today and closed at its lowest level in 30 days, but DaVita $DVA gained over 0.8%. Yesterday, we highlighted DVA as a tactical pick, with an 83.3% 3 day positivity rate.
Start a free trial of Premium Plus to access all our stock picks.
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FWIW, Tom Lee @fundstrat has some amazing insights. It’s not about being right or wrong on a single day. It’s the process behind the judgment. And if you’ve followed him for a while, you know his thesis and thought process are 💯.
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Just noticed we literally had the opposite call from @fundstrat for today 😂
Single day moves are often volatile, but we also see the S&P 500 making new highs and reaching our year end target of 8,100. We expect a single digit peak to trough decline for the rest of the year.
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Just noticed we literally had the opposite call from @fundstrat for today 😂
Single day moves are often volatile, but we also see the S&P 500 making new highs and reaching our year end target of 8,100. We expect a single digit peak to trough decline for the rest of the year.
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Sorry Kevin Warsh. For the first time since Alan Greenspan’s Fed in 1997, the S&P 500 $SPX closed lower on the day of the first rate hike of a new tightening cycle.
May be it was too much to ask after a record rally after Jerome Powell's hike in 2022.
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Big FOMC day tomorrow. Market now expects Fed to hike. On first hike days, the S&P 500 has been positive the last four times.
But when prior day was down, as looks possible today, $SPX was lower on hike day in 6 of 8 cases. Any daring souls buying puts here?
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has concluded his FOMC press conference.
The S&P 500 $SPX is down 0.4% as markets digest the 25 bps rate hike and Warsh’s message that inflation remains the primary concern.
Show more
The S&P 500 $SPX fell to a fresh session low just as Kevin Warsh began speaking at the FOMC press conference.
The Fed delivered a 25 bps hike, but the market’s initial reaction to Warsh’s remarks has been decidedly risk off.
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Fed hikes 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous 12-0 vote. In the new 2026 dot plot, 16 participants see at least one more hike by year-end, including 4 who project two more.
Today’s FOMC needs at least 7 of 12 votes to approve a rate hike. Last meeting, only Hammack, Kashkari and Logan voted to hike.
Who do you think joins them this time?
It’s almost ironic that the S&P 500 fell to a 30 day low right before today’s potential Fed hike. Since this AI driven bull market began, this level often marked a near term inflection point.
Up or down post FOMC, the boring days may finally be over for good. $SPX
Show more
Markets are pricing a rate hike as a done deal at tomorrow’s FOMC, but pace of tightening matters too.
The S&P 500 $SPX did well 1 year after slow or short hiking cycles, with double digit median gains, while fast cycles produced a negative median return.
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The S&P 500 $SPY is down today and closed at its lowest level in 30 days, but DaVita $DVA gained over 0.8%. Yesterday, we highlighted DVA as a tactical pick, with an 83.3% 3 day positivity rate.
Start a free trial of Premium Plus to access all our stock picks.
Show more
Markets are pricing a rate hike as a done deal at tomorrow’s FOMC, but pace of tightening matters too.
The S&P 500 $SPX did well 1 year after slow or short hiking cycles, with double digit median gains, while fast cycles produced a negative median return.
Show more
