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Brandon Carl
@brandonjcarl
Markets, Macro, AI, Tech. Trying to make the world a better place. •
1.1K Following    11.8K Followers
If you're wondering why GPU prices are going up ... algorithms have become wildly more efficient while prices haven't come down nearly as much. There is a major "arbitrage" right now between token prices and GPU rental rates. This means that the price of tokens goes down (supply up) while the price of GPUs goes up (demand up). @opencode is one of the top providers of tokens outside of the frontier labs. Let's suppose they're using a GB300 NVL72 and ballpark the price at $5 million. DeepSeek v4.1 Flash 1017: • 98% input tokens at effective in of 0.82c per million. • 2% output tokens at 60c per million. • Weighted average = 2c per million. Revenue = 6.77T x 2c / million = $136,000 / day. This would be circa double the $38 / hour that DeepSeek reported. If the GPU Rack was $5 million then then the payback for "just" the GB300 is 37 days. Obviously there are other costs but this gives you an idea.
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The latest OpenRouter weekly numbers are out. This specifically method looks at Total and then Top 10. So the data will be "chunky". Three important takeaways: 1. OpenAI has bumped Anthropic from Top 10 2. People have figured out the "free tokens" game and are aggressively rotating their usage 3. The top-level token growth is healthier than what's happening beneath the surface
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Muse Spark 1.3 is fast and smart. Very good model. At this point, there are at least half a dozen models that, if everything else went away, you’d have very workable solutions for intelligence. At many tiers they are increasingly fungible.
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