capital markets are about to turn active -- because of Solana,
@Backpack and
@sunrise
(i'm unemployed and lazy, so i used ai to clean it up but its a summary of my tweets from the past year)
here's the thesis:
active will make a comeback -- not as a promise that stock-pickers beat the market (in aggregate they can’t), but as a category that captures flows and fee revenue at internet scale.
why? because the investable universe of assets is expanding faster than indices can absorb it, distribution is collapsing into a one internet native layer, and tokenized equities on Solana are the rail where it converges.
the passive default is cracking. the mag7 are ~35–40% of the S&P 500 at ~31x forward earnings vs ~20x for the other 493 — “the index” is now a concentrated bet on seven names. capital is already rotating ex-US (+32% vs +17% in 2025).
the rails already exist, and the prize is huge. stablecoins are a ~$300B dollar network sitting in pockets worldwide; tokenized stocks are simply the next asset on rails that already move trillions. against ~$154T of global equity sit ~5bn smartphones and only a few hundred million brokerage accounts -- that access gap = the opportunity.
the frontier is active by construction. you cannot index pre-IPO names, un-listed foreign firms, or long-tail equities that have no index yet -- participating in them is active by necessity. Solana already carries ~97% of tokenized-equity volume, and it compounds: a token is one shared object every app, AMM, and frontend can plug into.
distribution becomes a commodity. once a stock is a token, any fintech app can be Robinhood and any creator can be BlackRock -- spin up a basket, earn a recurring AUM fee. the supply of active products explodes.
the swarm is structural. gamestop was a preview... retail is ~21% of US equity volume and growing, and the coordination machinery is getting smoother - Reddit/X to trade in one click is the end state.
capital formation becomes national security. in a fragmented, higher-rate world, states compete to pull global capital into domestic assets -- the UK’s digital gilt, Hong Kong’s digital bonds, and the US using stablecoins to fund its own treasuries. the state will get out of the way and accelerate this for a change.
tldr: passive weakens, the investable universe expands beyond indices, distribution commoditizes, the internet-native investor base grows, and states accelerate the rails.
active investing comes back -- not as one manager beating the market, but as the category that absorbs the next wave of assets, flows, products, and fees.
the prize is the rail where it converges.