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Chamath Palihapitiya
@chamath
Social Capital 8090 God is in the details.
Joined April 2007
1.1K Following    2.4M Followers
Ant will be a blockbuster IPO on every dimension. But the events of the past few weeks will weigh on the price. My bet is that the margin of safety for the IPO buyer is at +/- $1T. At 1T, it gives a good shot at a big return for the IPO buyer. Most every IPO seller is still booking a huge win. Ant gets $200B and can go build the company of their dreams.
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Chamath on regulatory risk impacting Anthropic's IPO: "It's probably going to clear at a much lower price than anybody thinks." "You have to throw everything in the kitchen sink into disclosures. The problem is that that will make what is an otherwise dense and impenetrable S-1 even more dense and impenetrable." "You can superficially cover your regulatory risk. But the way that it actually gets translated in the market is you're just going to have to water down the expectations of the IPO sellers and create a much larger margin of safety for the IPO buyer." "Even if you think that they're on a $100 billion run rate, what would have been a $2 trillion market cap, now you're at $1 trillion or less." "The hedge funds and the pension systems and the long only mutual fund complexes who have a fiduciary responsibility to their sources of capital will justify all the risks by essentially asking for a lower and lower price." "I think you're going to see a much more moderate and reasonable IPO motion here. It's probably going to clear at a much lower price than anybody thinks." "I think it's good for Anthropic because it clears all this noise. It forces them to just be a corporation and then run the business. And I think that they'll do great. But these other risks are going to weigh on the IPO. And the only way to flush them is to just bring the price way down."
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